A fascinating academic study based on the paceline forum

[MattTuck]

:banana::banana::banana::banana::banana::banana:

[OtayBW]

You should throw the Right Defrocked Reverend Elizabeth Cook thread in there to check your model....

[texbike]

You should throw the Right Defrocked Reverend Elizabeth Cook thread in there to check your model....

Or any thread that contains "Rapha" in the title... ;)

Texbike

[bthornt]

y = lnx?

[merlinmurph]

Looks like someone has had a bit of free time lately...;-)

The geek in me is curious, though. How are you getting the data?

[MattTuck]

Looks like someone has had a bit of free time lately...;-)

The geek in me is curious, though. How are you getting the data?

If I had known how much time this would take, I would not have started it.

I got the idea for it the other day, and then I was on an hour long conference call (just listening, not participating) and figured I'd give it a go.

If you go up to "Thread Tools" in the upper right part of a thread, and then "Show printable version", then click on "Show 40 Posts per page"

then I copied the text and did "paste special" as text into excel. Go to the next page, repeat. get carpel tunnel.

Once it excel, was easy. The way it pasted in, all the dates were in one column in a separate cell. So was super easy to make the graph.

Getting the data took the entire phone call and some....

[beeatnik]

East Coast Bias

[merlinmurph]

If I had known how much time this would take, I would not have started it...

Oh OK, I was assuming you had automated the data collection it somehow.....
Good exercise, though.

[gasman]

I'm sure there's a paper somewhere in the data.

[roydyates]

Looks like a Markov modulated arrival process with active and inactive states. If you tried to fit a two-state model, it looks like the arrival rate is something like 40-50 messages/day in the busy state.

On the other hand, it looks like successive busy periods get shorter and shorter, so probably more than two states would be better?

It is more than a little surprising to me how well the two threads track in the initial busy period. I guess that has something to do with it being roughly the same set of people in the conversation.

[dgauthier]

That is cool! I may I request, MattTuck, that you post another graph zoomed in to the lower left corner to include only the part common to both curves?

It's interesting how the Patriots thread just slams to a halt too. I wonder what causes that.

[schwa86]

You should get someone to write you a perl script to extract the data. But then you'd have to listen to your call..

[MattTuck]

Oh OK, I was assuming you had automated the data collection it somehow.....
Good exercise, though.

That would have been a better solution :)

Looks like a Markov modulated arrival process with active and inactive states. If you tried to fit a two-state model, it looks like the arrival rate is something like 40-50 messages/day in the busy state.

On the other hand, it looks like successive busy periods get shorter and shorter, so probably more than two states would be better?

It is more than a little surprising to me how well the two threads track in the initial busy period. I guess that has something to do with it being roughly the same set of people in the conversation.

With patriots, I think it is just the lack of new news that causes the thread to hibernate... then Goodell did something stupid, and it would ignite again.

Interestingly, I have the numbers for who posted in the threads. And for the most part (me glancing quickly at the two lists) they are not the same people.

That is cool! I may I request, MattTuck, that you post another graph zoomed in to the lower left corner to include only the part common to both curves?

It's interesting how the Patriots thread just slams to a halt too. I wonder what causes that.

I can do that, but not now. Maybe on my BOS-SEA flight on Sunday morning.

See my comment above about the lack of news flow. Even the patriots thread isn't a perpetual motion machine, you need news at some point to fuel the thread.

You should get someone to write you a perl script to extract the data. But then you'd have to listen to your call..

Are you volunteering? :)

To be clear, I listened fine. Just had my hands occupied with copy and pasting.

[dgauthier]

I can do that, but not now. Maybe on my BOS-SEA flight on Sunday morning.

Thanks! :)

[bcroslin]

both threads are about cheaters....

(I couldn't resist)

[MattTuck]

I believe the VW thread (1200+ posts, in less than 90 days) is now ahead of the patriots thread.

In case anyone was wondering besides me.