OT: I Robot aka self driving cars

[vav]

Sounds great: I could sleep during my daily 1 hr commute...or could I??

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/06/26/self-driving-cars-nearly-collide-in-california-raising-questions-about-the-technology/

As a driver, would you feel comfortable closing your eyes and letting your car go? As a pedestrian, cyclist, etc would you feel safer?

[MattTuck]

Sure, I'd feel comfortable letting go. Not sure that I'd attempt to fall asleep though.

And yes, I'd feel safer as a cyclist with autonomous cars on the streets. Let's face it, there will be accidents, a computer driven car will probably kill a cyclist. That doesn't make the technology bad.

The metric we should care about is the improved safety record relative to human drivers. From the article: But a near collision between two self-driving cars is now raising concerns over the technology.

I find this to faulty logic. If a near collision between two cars is all it takes to make you question whether a system is workable, then you should spend about 1 hour driving on public roads and you'd be ready to put the kibosh on human driven cars.

As a cyclist, I'd rather have cars that are constantly paying attention and unable to be 'distracted.' That always pass at a safe distance. Even if accidents do happen, you can be assured that the algorithms will be updated and improved.

The two things that are somewhat concerning to me are 1) the possibility of cyber security threats that could cause a car to crash or do something it is not supposed to, and 2) that these cars could replace many peoples' jobs, which has the potential for huge economic dislocation for many people... I kind of believe that there should be a tax on robots to try to internalize the cost of that externality.

A third concern I've heard, that people will no longer know how to drive cars and that is a bad thing, doesn't hold much water with me. After all, how many people still knew how to ride a horse after the advent of the automobile?

[Rueda Tropical]

A third concern I've heard, that people will no longer know how to drive cars and that is a bad thing, doesn't hold much water with me.

Most people dont know how to drive now. Doesnt prevent them from driving... while texting, talking on the phone, having a coffee, etc., I'd feel much safer with Google behind the wheel.

[Neil]

Can't come soon enough.

[muz]

I'd feel much safer with Google behind the wheel.

Absolutely. I come across 3 Google self driving cars on a typical morning ride to work, and I worry less about those than any human driven car on the road.

[Mark McM]

A third concern I've heard, that people will no longer know how to drive cars and that is a bad thing, doesn't hold much water with me. After all, how many people still knew how to ride a horse after the advent of the automobile?

Actually, this has become a concern in the airline industry. Pilots have become so reliant on automation, that their manual flying skills have deteriorated. There have been several airliner crashes in recent years in which pilots have caused perfectly flyable airplanes to crash after the automation has disengaged (or been set improperly), due to poor piloting skills.

In the case of the cars, I think the concern is if the automation fails, and a person has to take over, they won't be able react properly.

[thegunner]

Absolutely. I come across 3 Google self driving cars on a typical morning ride to work, and I worry less about those than any human driven car on the road.

they're so freaking careful that it's disconcerting. 3 foot rule? hell to the yes. they'll sit behind you blocking the lane for minutes just to not come close.

[Mr. Pink]

One concern many should have is that this will increase income inequality dramatically, because it will eliminate millions of middle class earning jobs that are mostly filled by high school grads. In other words, no more truck drivers, and Uber is salivating at the prospect of no more cab drivers to share in the profits. Which is the whole point, really. The elites could care less about safety. They want more money, which means less labor expense.

[jlwdm]

Seems far from the real point. So should we stop all technological advances in the name of equality?

Jeff

[Mr. Pink]

What's the real point?

Why do you think these "advances" are being worked on? Why do you think Google is spending so much money and time to develop this technology? To make life for all safer?

[ojingoh]

Can't come soon enough.

I'm with Neil. It will be a game changer.

I had a conversation recently with some folks in the US auto industry, they are considering having to reduce their auto output by 60% when the technology becomes available -- because people will only need to own one car.

Additionally, all of the companies who do human transport or product delivery -- UPS, your local startup doing food delivery, Uber/Lyft, Instacart etc -- these all become less necessary once your car autonomously picks up your stuff, or you, or your spouse.

To say nothing of the apparent benefit to road cyclists.

I am nervous about people's ability to drive on their own safely atrophying, but let's face it, I think that has been going on for years.

[Rueda Tropical]

What's the real point?

Why do you think these "advances" are being worked on? Why do you think Google is spending so much money and time to develop this technology? To make life for all safer?

Same reason anti-lock brakes and airbags were invented - to make money. They also increased safety. The free market at its best.

[MattTuck]

One concern many should have is that this will increase income inequality dramatically, because it will eliminate millions of middle class earning jobs that are mostly filled by high school grads. In other words, no more truck drivers, and Uber is salivating at the prospect of no more cab drivers to share in the profits. Which is the whole point, really. The elites could care less about safety. They want more money, which means less labor expense.

Seems far from the real point. So should we stop all technological advances in the name of equality?

Jeff

Article on Quartz on the subject: Self-driving trucks are going to hit the US economy like a human driven truck (http://qz.com/417014/self-driving-trucks-are-going-to-hit-the-us-economy-like-a-human-driven-truck/)

Agree with Mr. Pink that the incidence of this innovation will be on millions of peoples' livelihoods, with a few cyclists possibly benefiting from safer roads.

Again, it's why I think there needs to be a way to price that externality.

[saab2000]

Actually, this has become a concern in the airline industry. Pilots have become so reliant on automation, that their manual flying skills have deteriorated. There have been several airliner crashes in recent years in which pilots have caused perfectly flyable airplanes to crash after the automation has disengaged (or been set improperly), due to poor piloting skills.



This has been happening since the beginning of time. The overwhelming majority of pilots have fine hand flying skills and it's part of the annual training and testing event at my airline, required by the FAA.

The accidents to which are are likely referring have more to do with a lack of understanding of the integration of the crew and the technology than a true lack of flying skills.

This is a topic for a long discussion but one of the well known incidents, the Air France accident from Brazil to Paris (AF700?) would have been exceedingly difficult to recover from even for an experienced pilot expecting the systems failure that occurred.

The airplanes that I have flown for the past 15 years in my career have neither an auto takeoff nor an autoland function. Pilots are encouraged to use the automation to the maximum as it frees up capacity to concentrate on other tasks.

I think the argument that pilots have lost skill is based largely on the fact that aviation has grown so fast and many non-Western carriers have had inconsistent selection and training standards, sometimes with amazing facts coming to the surface. The overwhelming majority of US, Canadian and European pilots have plenty of hand flying experience and capabilities. I have nearly 6000 landings and every single one of them was flown by hand.

[Neil]

^Glad to hear stuff like that, I'm also pretty sure you are not in the middle of posting "LOL" on someones Facebook feed whilst landing your plane, which sadly seems to be the case for most of the people driving cars in London.

WRT the human driver losing their job I think that yes, that will happen - but certainly not at once.

I would imagine that the first change will be that the driver will become an operative, and can do paperwork (or post on Facebook etc) whilst his van drives to the next drop, at which point the operative will get the parcel, go up in the lift, knock on the door, get the signature etc.

The human will only leave the system when my robot vacuum cleaner (Dobby the Botvac 85) can open the front door and sign for my Wiggle delivery.

[Peter P.]

There are many questions unanswered with regard to self-driven vehicles.

If the system fails, and it WILL fail, resulting in an accident, who's at fault? The "driver"? The vehicle maker?

Since most people exceed the speed limit, and some deliberately and exceedingly so, how will they be able to "speed" when the car is in control? This is a serious question because many people rely on bending or breaking the rules whether it be make all scheduled deliveries on-time, drop the kids off at daycare/get to work/etc. in a limited time frame, or just because they can. If auto-pilot can be disengaged and then the vehicle driven fast and unpredictably, will the computer driven vehicles be able to this unknown?

I wonder whether the auto-pilot cars, obeying speed limits, will actually SLOW traffic and extend drive times.

[Neil]

Why would a robot car have a speed limit that is the same as a human?

Human has two eyes, and fairly so-so reaction times, a computer can have RADAR, LIDAR, be linked to the other vehicles around it, reaction times that are in the pico-second range, and could (for e.g.) form a train with other cars to share the aero load, running ~1" off the bumper of the car in front at 200mph down the freeway.

Remove human error and what you can do suddenly changes.

[Schmed]

I enjoy a nice spirited drive on a twisty road, and don't want a robot doing it for me!

But... for commuting, here you go, Robot, take the wheel!

It should be better for traffic - no more "lookie Lous" slowing things down. Even it it were the same slow traffic, who cares, I'm reading the paper or checking emails or drinking a beer.

I would, however, like a "sport" and "track" mode for my robot car. "Sport" has Ken Block inspired driving dynamics, and "Track" mode is like Kimi Raikkonen at the wheel.

I would also like this robot to wash my car while I'm at work.

[martl]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/06/26/self-driving-cars-nearly-collide-in-california-raising-questions-about-the-technology/

I find it funny that a non-collision seems to question the whole concept, when a couple of thousand killed anually by human drivers does not raise questions about things like DUI legislation, speed limits or better/stricter driver education and re-evaluation of capability.

[malbecman]

I can't wait for them, at least in heavily trafficked areas. I just spent an extra hour going back and forth to my mom's place to see her for lunch and the stop and go traffic with "pulses" or waves of stopping was silly at times....most of it due to people over-reacting and slamming on their brakes and/or cars cutting in due to impatient drivers.

Software controlled cars will make these situations a thing of the past by removing the emotions from driving and letting us all cruise along at one speed.

[Mr. Pink]

I see that some of you have never had a computer crash on you. Then there's the whole power failure thing, and don't forget how easily systems can be hacked these days.

Be careful of what you hope for.

[gdw]

A few questions for those of you who want one:

How old are you?
How long have you had a driver's license?
Do you live in a city, the suburbs, or rural area?

[Neil]

39, since I was 17, grew up in the countryside and now live in London, visit my folks in the country regularly.

[Seramount]

a robot drive my car for me...? uh, no.

have had a license since I was 14 in 1966...I'm a car guy and prefer to shift the 6-spd manual and watch the tach needle go to 8,000 rpm when I need/want it to.

but, for the VAST majority of driving skill challenged mopes on the road, self-driving cars are a great idea.

especially the brain-dead woman in the blue Nissan Altima that tried to kill me TWICE on my ride yesterday.

[sitzmark]

Sounds great: I could sleep during my daily 1 hr commute...or could I??

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/06/26/self-driving-cars-nearly-collide-in-california-raising-questions-about-the-technology/

As a driver, would you feel comfortable closing your eyes and letting your car go? As a pedestrian, cyclist, etc would you feel safer?

Letting go ... sure won't be 100%, but once the tech is worked out should be less collisions than under human steerage.

Safer ... maybe. Then it will be human powered vehicle that are a threat to safety and soon bicycles will be remote driven as well.

As someone who enjoys driving (and cycling), I think auto-piloted vehicles suck. I'd rather not be along-for-the-ride in life .... hope I'm dead and gone by the time that's the way people are required go through life.

[Neil]

Bike is 8kg, car is 1,800kg, bike speed of 16mph against car speed of 50mph- mass times speed is going to show which of the two is dangerous and that is born out by he figures- 55 cyclists and 900 drivers killed by vehicles so far this year in the UK, 1 person killed by a cyclist.

Robotise the gross threat and get rid of it.

[professerr]

I would think that the whole business of liability for collisions will get thrown into disarray with robo cars. A pedestrian jay walks and causes robo car A to swerve to avoid him too quickly for human driver of car B to reasonably react. Who's at fault? Robo car A owner? Robo car A maker? Pedestrian? All of the above?

I also wonder about the complexities of multiple robo cars on the road interacting with each other, as well as with humans. Basically, you have thousands of different software programs interacting with each other via physical interfaces (cars) that themselves have very different physical properties, all in a highly variable physical environment. How do you debug this?

Finally, I suspect the opportunities for law enforcement/safety will be irresistible and speeding and other common place infractions will become things of the past.

[malbecman]

A few questions for those of you who want one:

How old are you?
How long have you had a driver's license?
Do you live in a city, the suburbs, or rural area?


I am 47 and got my driver's license at 16 on a stick shift. However, I live in CA in a city of 70,000, surrounded by fields and driving for me has mostly become a matter of trying to get from Point A to Point B.

I get it, it's a control issue....many of us like to feel in control of our precious, pricey vehicles.

I'd much rather enjoy the time with the person sitting next to me or just read a book than deal with traffic or asinine drivers on the road in front of me. :)

Now....riding my BIKE from point A to point B is waaaaaay more fun. :banana: