Price of gas and cycling

[CNY rider]

So where do you think the price point is for gasoline that will get at least some people out of their cars, and either walking or cycling more?

I already ride to work 3 or 4 days a week. We live in a rural area; I work for a hospital which is by far the biggest local employer. The road conditions around the hospital are not bad. I think that many people who work here live within 5 miles, and almost none of them walk or bicycle.

I would say attitudes towards me and my bike are in a state of evolution. Previously, most folks looked at it as some kind of freakish personal choice I made, like having purple hair or something. Within the past month, I've had a couple of curious inquiries about it. One woman sold a gas guzzler and bought a little compact to drive to work. She lives about 20 miles away, so she's an unlikely cycling candidate, but she did ask how I got started riding to work.

Two others have approached me in the past week. They are both moderately obese women, and live within cycling distance (I"ll call that under 5 miles for someone not currently a cyclist). One has pulled an old beater bike out of her basement, and sort of hinted she might like some help resuscitating it, which I would be happy to do. The second is really griping about gasoline, as well as her need to lose weight, and has asked where to buy a bike, how to get started, and if I would help with that process.

My sense is that lots of folks are now close to that tipping point of wanting to cut their use of gasoline, whether out of pure financial pain, or not wanting to be platinum members of the "Iran/Al-Qaeda Platinum Donor Club". What do you think would put them over the edge, and into action?

Inquiring minds want to know.

[Onno]

I think for an overwhelming majority of people, no price is too high. For many of these there really is no choice. If you have a 30 plus mile commute, cycling is not really an option for 99.5 percent of the population. Even when bike commuting is possible and plausible, most people are going to drive cars until the steering wheel is ripped from their cold dead hands. That is, you either need to ban cars in certain situations, or get rid of parking, or something that extreme. The price of gas ain't going to do it.

I say this, because today, as usual, I saw several people drive about a quarter mile to work (i.e. where I work), on a gorgeous, sunny, clear morning, perfect for biking or walking. And the price of gas here is about 3 bucks a gallon at the moment.

Onno

[saab2000]

For some the price clearly is not high enough. Go to any convenience store and see how many vehicles are left idling.

But I also think that for some people in some situations there will be an incentive to make a change. Real incomes in the US are down over the past couple decades and gas prices have really spiked in the past 18 months or so and it is hurting a lot of people.

I don't need to drive much for my work and I am very thankful. I could actually live without a car if I wanted, though there are times it would really suck. But I only fill the tank every couple weeks.

[CNY rider]

Even when bike commuting is possible and plausible, most people are going to drive cars until the steering wheel is ripped from their cold dead hands. That is, you either need to ban cars in certain situations, or get rid of parking, or something that extreme. The price of gas ain't going to do it.

I say this, because today, as usual, I saw several people drive about a quarter mile to work (i.e. where I work), on a gorgeous, sunny, clear morning, perfect for biking or walking. And the price of gas here is about 3 bucks a gallon at the moment.

Onno


I hope it's not true. I would hope that at some price ($4 a gallon? $5?) there would be some economic effect on people's behavior. Are we really a nation of sheeple that can't get off our oversized rears and change behavior? I actually think that at some price economics will win out, and my guess it's around $4 per gallon.

[CNY rider]

For some the price clearly is not high enough. Go to any convenience store and see how many vehicles are left idling.



Funny, I've mentioned that exact phenomenon to my wife over the past few weeks.

Many times the idler is an older truck/SUV that looks like a real guzzler to begin with, and many of the drivers and occupants don't look particularly well off. Are they less sensitive to the price of gas for some reason? Less interested in having clean air? Are they actually Saudi royal family?

[Ginger]

Ya gotta ask yourself, which habit are they going to give up first: The cigarettes they've run into the convenience store to buy, or leaving the truck running in the parking lot (under the old adage that it takes more to start the car than to leave it running.)

My vote is $5 per gallon.

I'm starting to see more cyclists who are not DUI riders on regular roads at regular commute times. They're still rare, but increasing.

[RichardSeton]

I don't think $5 per gallon will be enough. At best, it'll force people to buy more fuel efficent cars. It will, however, further the haves from the have nots. Those of us who bike commute a lot will simply be able to spend more of our incomes on other things - which at the lower end may mean healthy food.

[QUOTE=saab2000]For some the price clearly is not high enough. Go to any convenience store and see how many vehicles are left idling.

[xcandrew]

I'm going to have to agree with Onno, no price is too high. What would you say is a reasonable every day cycle commute distance for non-athlete? I'd say about 5 miles one way max, and only on a safe and convenient route. That's probably being overly generous. Maybe 2 or 3 miles is more reasonable. The limit for most "serious" cyclists is probably not that much higher for a daily route. I grew up bike commuting daily to school (elementary school 1/2 mile away, Jr. high 1 mile away, high school 1.2 miles away) and made it through college without a car, but I definitely have my limits. When I lived in "Silicon Valley" and had about a 20 mile one way commute from south San Jose to Santa Clara for 4 years, I never rode my bike to work once because there's really no direct non-highway route. It would have been at least 25 miles one way by bike with lots of traffic lights, and it would have required lots of car exhaust breathing.

If we accept 2-5 miles one way as being a bike commute that everyone could do, what are you really saving in gas? At 20 mpg, that's a quarter to half a gallon of gas per day. That's nothing, even at $10 per gallon. If you don't use your car, the non fuel costs of owning a vehicle that you are already paying are, in a sense, going to waste. It would be better to get rid of your car first. I'm kind of in that boat because I have never driven my car to work at my current job and have only driven 1,400 miles in the past 6 months... you kind of wonder what you are doing paying $650 per year in insurance for when you never drive! (OK, the answer is convenience to get a load of groceries at the store, to get out of town for the weekend, etc.)

I did select my current job in large part because the company office is 1.5 trail miles from home (longer by road). I run to work at an easy pace in about 13 minutes, no sweat, no shower, not much longer than a drive would take. Since I run home for lunch to walk my dog, I get 6 miles a day of running in before my real daily workouts even start... nice! In San Jose, I used to spend the same amount of time driving in traffic.

[H1449-6]

I'ma post a poll for commuters. How far is your (biking) commute. Looking forward to responses.

For me, my commute is one of four choices:

a) Home office. Commute about 100 feet.
b) Office around the corner. Commute less than a mile.
c) Office downtown. Commute about 12 miles one way on scary roads.
d) Client site. Commute 800-1000 miles. Not rideable on any reasonable timetable.

I think I can use non-fossil fuel means of transportation for a), b) and possibly c). C) is the reason I'm going to post the poll.

There are different value equations depending upon the worksite. Home office is most convenient but eliminates in-person contact with my boss and others on my team. Client site is least convenient but helps build client relationships. Other sites have other attributes.

[bcm119]

Obviously that price point will be different for everyone, but hopefully it will continue to increase the popularity of small cars, and slow the suburban sprawl rate.

Unfortunately, the people it does convert to bike commuting will be the ones with the shortest commute, which will collectively make little difference from a national perspective, especially if you consider industrial fuel consumption. If you take an even bigger step back, globally the developed countries account for about 50% of greenhouse emissions...not even counting agricultural burning pollution... but the population of developing countries is increasing much faster...soon we won't be the biggest polluters. Just some comforting thoughts for a Monday night. :rolleyes:

[Brons2]

I have a 3.5 mile bike commute, but I have only done it twice in 5 years at my current job. There is no good route that doesn't involve me crossing two freeways and riding on a 6 lane boulevard with no shoulder or sidewalk. One of the said afforementioned freeways has road construction currently, to top it off. My work is on the frontage road of that freeway.

I have a full-sized pickup that gets 14 mpg in town and I love hearing it roar. :D

The other problem is that I want to go to training rides after work that are far away from work and home :D

But seriously, if I felt safer riding it, there's no doubt that I'd do it far more often. We have showers in the downstairs bathrooms, to boot.

[Ray]

Tough question - one I spend a good chunk of my professional life thinking about. There's no question that there IS a tipping point somewhere but it may be so high that we'll reach a level of societal crisis that will make commuting choice look like the least of our problems before we get to the tipping point.

Or not.

Clearly, it will be a move of last resort for the vast majority of Americans. And the land use pattern and infrastructure that we've developed in the west since even before WWII and especially since makes it waaaay harder and raises that tipping point even higher. As Brons2 pointed out so well in his mention of the virtually un-rideable 3.5 mile commute. The issue is less one of distance than one of safety and convenience, or at least perceived safety and convenience. Obviously, the person with a 30 mile commute is going to do almost anything to keep the car running (including getting more efficient vehicles sooner than later - that's happening even now). Until they just can't afford to and have to choose to either live somewhere else or work somewhere else.

But even today, better than 60% of all automobile trips are 5 miles or less and just about half are 3 miles or less (this information comes from deep in the bowels of the 2000 census). If we can create even marginally safe facilities, more and more people will start doing more and more of these shorter trips by bike. These are the trips we have to target first. And statistics clearly show that the most important factor in cycling safety is the number of cyclists on the road. The more of us there are, the more drivers see us as an unavoidable reality that they HAVE to share the road with and start seeing this other mode of travel as a more viable option for themselves as well. Its easily to mentally and emotionally marginalize a few people dressed in freakish clothes (uhhh, that'd be US, mostly) but it's a lot harder when its 10-20-30% or more of road users who look like actual PEOPLE, as it can be in some third world cities. And, yeah, they're all getting cars now and fighting for the same gas we take as a birth right and trying to be more like US, but at some point, WE'RE going to have to start emulating THEM too. And as more and more people do it, at some point there will be (and, God, I hate to use this term) a critical mass reached, where public perceptions will change.

A big chunk of what I used to do in my job and a bigger chunk of what I'm now doing in my consulting business is the early stages of the long slow process of getting more cycling-safe facilities in place to accommodate that high percentage of shorter trips that are currently done by car. A lot of cities have already done a LOT to put cycling facilities in place and, son of a gun, if you build 'em, they get used and used heavily. But it's a much tougher nut out here in the burbs for a whole host of reasons. But I'm working with communities now that want to plan for more trails and sidewalks and bike lanes between neighborhoods and schools and shops and parks. A lot of them see this as a recreational pursuit, rather than a transportation pursuit (like a lot of folks on this board, I reckon), but if you build the links, they get used in all sorts of unintended ways. It'll be years before most of these facilities get built, but the mentality is slowly changing that we have to provide them and money is seeping into the transportation system (slowly, but surely) to get it done.

Will enough of it happen soon enough to matter? Don't know. No reason for optimism. But we have to try, no? So, we keep plugging. And, in the meantime, the more of us who use bikes and walk for the shorter trips in OUR lives, the sooner it'll all happen and the better off we (individually and, eventually, collectively), will be.

Soapbox off now...

-Ray

[The Spider]

for some driving isn't a luxury but a necessity (and some just view it as a necessity) ....and therefore the increase in petrol actually strips cash away from the non-necessities; which to most people means cinema, restaurants and sports etc.

Sales of bikes and sports equipment would actually decrease due to a decrease in disposable income.

[Too Tall]

Where do I send the check Ray :) You rock sir.
Ten yrs. ago Queen and I moved from one city suburb to a newer house located even deeper into the city. A compelling reason was exactly what we are talking about. We hate getting in the car and wanted to live in walking distance to most of the things we otherwise would use a car for: groceries, entertainment, beer ;) Also, the house is located very near a local bicycle training route and path into downtown DC where I work. Life is good BUT we planned it to work that way despite the horrible road system and commerce districts that are not easy to reach by alt. transportation.

Is any price too high for gas? Not likely however we will see big changes in alt. transportation when availability becomes an issue. Out of the blue you will see transp. collectives, bike riders etc. Is that a good thing? He!! no. The basic price of yours and my daily fare will raise dramatically...I'm talking about basic goods / services.

The answer? Incentives to use, buy, support and engage alt. energy use and low energy use methods: solar, passive, wind, reduced consumption of services / utilities thru vol. means yada yada....yeah I'm saying that the Fed and State should PAY or otherwise entice you and me to do these things.

Life is OTAY hows about you?

[flydhest]

Onno and xcandrew,

While I agree in spirit with your thoughts that people are stubborn and getting them to change ways is difficult, part of the premise of the first post is at odds with the facts. The vast majority of car trips are under five miles. While in some regions, the 30 mile commute may be fairly common, it is not the norm.

I don't think cycling will become, in any short period of time, the most common alternative transport system--that would take a generation I would guess (though I don't really know). However, when filling the tank regulaly costs $100 for someone who makes $45K per year, something will give. My guess is that more and more will be in fuel efficiency, but with any luck, we the electorate and our elected officials will do a cranial-anal extraction and take public transit and urban/suburban/exurban planning more seriously.

The irony, in my view, is that progressive, market-oriented types have long been calling for a substantial increase in the tax on gasoline. Had this happened way back when gas was $.75 a gallon, the percentage change now from the price of oil would have been much more slight. Indeed, there are good reasons to think that the net increase could have been less, as well.

Market strategies, where the right and the left ought to be able to agree, but each is wrong.

[capitán]

We live in a society that promotes the use of automobiles as an almost exclusive form of transportation from the age of 16 on up. It's so engrained in the culture that people view higher gas prices as a nuisance, not a catalyst for an alternative lifestyle. The next time you hear someone complain about higher gas prices, ask them what they plan to do about it. You'll probably get a blank stare.

[Ray]

I don't think cycling will become, in any short period of time, the most common alternative transport system--that would take a generation I would guess (though I don't really know). However, when filling the tank regulaly costs $100 for someone who makes $45K per year, something will give. My guess is that more and more will be in fuel efficiency, but with any luck, we the electorate and our elected officials will do a cranial-anal extraction and take public transit and urban/suburban/exurban planning more seriously.
I think a generation is about right, Flyd. Think about it, when a lot of US were kids, bikes were our primary form of transportation. They were for me. I didn't love 'em or hate 'em back then - I just needed 'em.

Fast forward. If you look at the number of kids who got to school via walking or biking in the 70's versus today, it's literally shocking. I don't remember the exact stats, but it went from a very high percentage to almost none within this one generation. My kids have only had the limited exposure to cycling that they've had because I'm a bit of a fanatic. Most kids of this generation don't go past riding on the sidewalk in front of their houses for a few months after the training wheels come off. So it only took about a generation to go from cycling and walking to almost never cycling or walking (and epidemic levels of obesity, what a coincidence). It shouldn't take more than that to get back, particularly with the direction of oil prices. If peak oil is a real phenomenon, it could happen a lot faster than that. But that's not the hard part.

The most difficult part of the equation isn't the transportation infrastructure, it's the land use pattern. We've spent better than 50 years perfecting the 2-acre lot subdivision. And you just can't serve that kind of development with alternative transportation very well. And we've built a friggin' TON of it. My guess is that a lot of BIG A$$ suburban houses are going to be selling for the price of dirt in 20 years or less. Subdivision ghost towns that'll make the old mining ghost towns look positively prosperous. I hope I'm wrong - because as noted earlier, that won't translate into good times for ANY of us. It'll be interesting to see how this transition takes place, how much telecommunication and the movement of information can soften the increased cost of the movement of people and stuff. Whether two acre lots start getting further subdivided with a big 'manor' house and a few smaller units sprinkled around the edges to create denser suburbs that might function, or whether people actually move back to the cities.

In the meantime, Too Tall, I don't rock - I do this for the money :cool: I live in an exurban old colonial town and I ride my bike for transportation way more than most, but my family and I are far more reliant on cars than I'm comfortable with. Those of you who have arranged your lives to barely have to drive and to get around in other ways are the one's who truly ROCK and who are setting the examples that the rest of us are going to need to learn to follow.

Rock on,

-Ray

[kgrooney]

I live six miles from work on Long Island and would love to ride to work and can even take back roads, to boot. However, how do I address the real problem of arriving at work sweaty with wrinkled cloths carried in a back pack? No showers and I have people in my office for business daily.

[Too Tall]

Kgrooney - membership at the club around the corner, dry cleaner down the block, a room where you can store suits / dress shirts / shoes...carry the remainder. You can do this friend, just draw the line.

[saab2000]

This is an interesting topic for me. I am something of a car guy. But I am worried about our nation's dependence upon them.

There is a very active group of people in this country who will do anything to prevent further construction of any sort of public transportation or bike lanes. For these people there exist only cars. I read a lot of car magazines and there are columnists in these publications who are incredulous that tax dollars would go to support bicyclists. Bikes, after all, are just childrens' toys right? And anyone who supports public transportation is some sort of left-leaning, tree hugging, social(ist) engineer, right? This attitude is strong among many people who grew up a generation or two ago, when gas was virtually free, this nation existed in a vacuum and there were jobs aplenty for anyone who could breathe.

We have come a long way forwards in many ways, but we are running out of easily accessible fossil fuel (this does not address the other issue, global warming, that is at least a partial result of the burning of fossil fuel) and we will need to change our consumption habits or risk a collapse of our economy.

But I am not a complete pessimist. Necessity is the mother of invention and there are many solutions. And yes, biking to work and for errands is perhaps part of the solution for many people. But like I said, we live in a society where the idea of getting on a bicycle is ludicrous for many people over the age of 12. This will need to change.

[shaq-d]

what ray said, plus:

gasoline has an inelastic demand curve, as does public transportation. if you raise the price of gasoline, you basically create inflation. people don't stop using it. it's a necessary thing.

what is needed is what ray says: a wholesale change in the american driving culture; cities built to take cycles, which means no malls and more street-based stores; none of which is likely to happen, considering the huge amounts of dollars that the rich guys stand to lose (auto industry + gas/oil + environmental companies). small additions like bike paths do not a culture make (unfortunately)..

cycling in america is probably one of those weird demographics where if u're a cyclist, u're either poor as hell (cannot afford a car) or rich as hell (u cycle for fun, not transport)..

sd

[Onno]

kgrooney, the trick for bike commuting is to get fit enough and/or go slowly enough that you don't work up a real sweat. On hot days, I do bring a change of clothing, but I have a lot of flexibility in how I dress at work.

I think a real solution to gas prices and commuting for the public will eventually be very small, cheap, safe, electric cars. If much of one's driving is short distance, and the car is cheap enough, a lot of middle class people will see the sense in getting one just for driving around town. Perhaps such a vehicle would be the only one most people bought, using rental cars for longer trips.

So anyone want to form a company to make a carbon-fiber 2 seater with a trunk that will sell for under 8 grand? Payments for such a vehicle might be equivalent to what lots of folks spend on gas every month.

Imagine if such a vehicle came with a Serotta nameplate??!!

Onno

[Tom]

B!TCHIN CAMARO, B!TCHIN CAMARO
I ran over my neighbors, B!TCHIN CAMARO, B!TCHIN CAMARO,
Now it's in all the papers.
My folks bought me a B!TCHIN CAMARO with no insurance to match;
So if you happen to run me down, please don't leave a scratch.
I ran over some old lady one night at the county fair;
And I didn't get arrested, because my dad's the mayor.
B!TCHIN CAMARO, B!TCHIN CAMARO
Doughnuts on your lawn
B!TCHIN CAMARO, B!TCHIN CAMARO
Tony Orlando and Dawn
When I drive past the kids, they all spit and cuss,
Because I've got a B!TCHIN CAMARO and they have to ride the bus.
So you'd better get out of my way, when I run through your yard;
Because I've got a B!TCHIN CAMARO;
And an Exxon credit card.
B!TCHIN CAMARO, B!TCHIN CAMARO
Hey, man where ya headed?
B!TCHIN CAMARO, B!TCHIN CAMARO
I drive on unleaded


Public Transportation, Urban and Suburban Planning... Ray, I think you're right. No reason for optimism.

[Keith A]

kgrooney -- I am in a similar situation as you. I live about 6-7 miles from work and have decent enough roads to ride to work, but there is no shower at my office -- and no clubs, etc nearby that have showers. Someone mentioned riding slowly so as not to sweat -- try doing that with the humidity during the summer here in Florida. If you just walk outside during the summer, you sweat.

The other weather issue you have to deal with during the Florida summers is rain. It is common for it to rain during many of the afternoons in the summer. I don't mind this too much, but the part I hate is doing the bike cleanup after riding in the rain.

[67-59]

As others have said, I don't think the price of gas is the biggest factor.

In my opinion, the biggest factor (assuming the distance is reasonable) is the availability of safe, relatively exhaust free routes. Unfortunately, way too few of those exist in most places. Another factor that is highly variable is the availability of lockers and showers. Finally (and related to the locker/shower issue) is the variable of what kind of clothes you have to wear. If you have to wear a suit, and don't have lockers and showers (or even if you do have showers, but have to figure out how to lug your work clothes back and forth), it just isn't going to happen regularly.

I live a very reasonable distance (about 4 miles) from work but I have never commuted. My two main reasons are all the traffic, and the fact that I have to wear a suit and tie daily. I'm not going to take a bunch of extra time packing my clothes every day, then lugging it on the back of my bike, just to ride through the exhust filled streets of downtown. I ride for fun and my health -- that isn't my idea of fun, and the extra exhaust I'd breathe certainly isn't healthy.

[zap]

Check out the little vehicle ZAP sells. ZAP=zero air pollution and are located out in CA.

[Serpico]

where are these bikes going to go? our society (aside from a few metropolitan areas built by forward-thinking planners) isn't built around the concept of mass transit or, for that matter, "alternative" transit (ie bikes, etc).

saying "ride a bike" is not a solution, or even an option, for many of us. I wish it were.

much of the highway system, and roads, were built on the premise of increasing automobile sales way back when--you don't think those same car manufacturers (which are struggling in the US) are going to fight any move towards alternative transit?

[bironi]

CNY,

I must say that I am not very optimistic, especially given the affinity for personal motor vehicles exhibited on this board. Reference the O.T. Honda Ridgeline thread now in progress.

[RichardSeton]

My work is 21 miles (by car) away. I commute an average of 3.5 days per week year round, as follows:

a) Going to work. 3 miles by bike, and about 18 miles on the bus. Takes 45 minutes total. I take it easy - no need to shower at work. I wear work clothes for this bit.
b). Going home, I ride the whole distance, 21 miles minimum, with 1200 ft elevation. I often take longer routes home - up to 45 miles. Portland is a pretty good place to bike commute - we're lucky.

[QUOTE=H1449-6]I'ma post a poll for commuters. How far is your (biking) commute. Looking forward to responses.

For me, my commute is one of four choices:

a) Home office. Commute about 100 feet.
b) Office around the corner. Commute less than a mile.
c) Office downtown. Commute about 12 miles one way on scary roads.
d) Client site. Commute 800-1000 miles. Not rideable on any reasonable timetable.

I

[Argos]

I guess the trick to the incresed oil prices is to bemoan the cost all the while having shifted a portion of investments to energy companies prior to Katrina. Now you can feel good about yourself posting on this site, and feel even better looking at your portfolio.

:cool:

[Ginger]

Hmmm...I'm basically in Detroit and northern suburbs. Not bike friendly. My drive to work is 25 miles by car, 21 or so by bike. Nearest shower to work is 3 miles. I start my urban commute before 5:30 so that I avoid many of the traffic issues in the morning. I run a full lighting system and I err to the side of caution. Even with my new little car, I'll be commuting by bike 3-4 times per week...maybe even 5 if I get hooked up with the dry cleaning service that picks up and drops stuff off here. I have noticed that the buses that run up Woodward have bike racks, so I may start doing the bus for part of the trip on the way in and ride home like Mr. Seton.

I do agree that we need more -- and more reliable -- mass transit in American urban centers. I found it interesting that Americans tend to hold Europeans in a different light because of mass transit use and tendency to walk...when I was in Paris I after chatting with different people I concluded that people take public transport and ride scooters because cars, fuel, and parking is expensive. I don't necessarily think they do these things because they're more health minded or environmentally consious of their choices...but because of the cost involved. I did note that few people there actually ride a bicycle to work.
(They *do* seem to have a different approach to finances than we do....and the need to "not smell" in an office environment...but that's another story that is part of the same story.)

Zap, I considered the Corbin car when it first came out. My problem with most of those is: How do they do in snow?


So...what were we typing about?

[Mikej]

OK, would all of these changes (dry cleaning, showers, extra bike parts/lights additional funding for bike roads etc) be purpose defeating? One gash in a Mich. Axial Pro = 45$ plus tube 6$ plustme and being late and p.o'd. It all sounds great, but it's like the hybrid car that will NEVER make up the fuel used for the additional factories required for the electrical motor components. Kind of like a wind farm is a loosing battle as well, costs more to build and replace blades than energy it saves. Its all a money pit, this stuff just doesn't happen, it is planned - its called capitalism.

[Ginger]

Conti gatorskins...or that ilk.

called being prepared for commuting. :)

Gotta do the dry cleaning stuff anyhow.

[CNY rider]

OK, would all of these changes (dry cleaning, showers, extra bike parts/lights additional funding for bike roads etc) be purpose defeating? One gash in a Mich. Axial Pro = 45$ plus tube 6$ plustme and being late and p.o'd. It all sounds great, but it's like the hybrid car that will NEVER make up the fuel used for the additional factories required for the electrical motor components. Kind of like a wind farm is a loosing battle as well, costs more to build and replace blades than energy it saves. Its all a money pit, this stuff just doesn't happen, it is planned - its called capitalism.

Actually the primary reason I now ride 3 or 4 days a week is that I ultimately enjoy it.

At some point, the pain of using expensive fuels will get even some people who DON'T enjoy it to either walk or bike. Once they start, I think some of them actually WILL enjoy it.

[Ginger]

Yeah...I *do* already have all the required equipment. So other than an extra pair of shorts, which I'm happy to buy anyhow, there isn't much outlay.

And I love riding at sunrise.

That brings me back to the new riders that I'm seeing were only lacking the bike. They're riding in jeans and without lights. Low outlay. I'm suspecting that these are the first of the early adapters of those who are riding due to the economies of gasoline.

[Climb01742]

i'm not sure "cars" are the problem. the internal combustion engine is the "problem". fuel cell or eletric cars would solved a lot of things. bikers will bike. most folks will drive. so be it. just hope the day comes soon when gas won't be powering the cars. then let 'em drive.

[scrooge]

I live six miles from work on Long Island and would love to ride to work and can even take back roads, to boot. However, how do I address the real problem of arriving at work sweaty with wrinkled cloths carried in a back pack? No showers and I have people in my office for business daily.

I was in a similiar situation. I rode in a little early and took it easy. I also gave myself a little extra time to stop sweating, wipe down with a towel and maybe a wetwipe for the pits. Either take clothes in when you drive occossions or roll them up and put them in a backback or a pannier (better--backpacks get hot and you sweat more). It can be done.

[Ray]

i'm not sure "cars" are the problem. the internal combustion engine is the "problem". fuel cell or eletric cars would solved a lot of things. bikers will bike. most folks will drive. so be it. just hope the day comes soon when gas won't be powering the cars. then let 'em drive.
I hope these alternative fuels end up being cost-effective. From what I've read, there is no form of energy out there that provides anywhere close to the bang for the buck that oil has. It has been very very close to free energy for about, what, 70-100 years or so? What's left is going to produce much less energy at much greater cost. So we're gonna have to change our ways one way or another. I hope I'm wrong about this, btw, and I don't claim to be a scientist so I put it forth as a very strong concern, not an assertion of fact. If people are still driving great distances in 50 years, but in cleaner and more efficient vehicles, I'd LOVE to hear 'I told you so'. But I'm not placing my bets in that direction.

-Ray

[Mikej]

i'm not sure "cars" are the problem. the internal combustion engine is the "problem". fuel cell or eletric cars would solved a lot of things. bikers will bike. most folks will drive. so be it. just hope the day comes soon when gas won't be powering the cars. then let 'em drive.

The I.C. engine is one of the more efficient methods out there, its the start stop that does the wasting. Fuel cells are never going to happen, too complicated, plus the majority of the hydrogen stripping comes from - you guessed it - petroleum. H is the most abundent element on earth, its getting it freed that is the trouble. And talk about greenhouse gases during the process- off the chart!!!!!!!

[bcm119]

I think its a baby-steps situation. Energy consumption and pollution is a tricky nexus of issues, way too complex to talk about in terms of simple alternatives. Since 1970, we've almost cut total annual car emissions in half, even with the population growth. Engine efficiency and emissions controls are huge factors, and they are getting better each year. Real change can only come from policies on emissions/efficiency, both for cars and industry, but the first step is to persuade people to accept new standards of autos. Nothing is going to change if we keep falling prey to Ford Tough commercials. We have to get over this obsession with giant cars, nobody really needs them.
But there are more pressing issues than getting everyone to ride a bike or buy a hybrid in the US. Population control in developing countries is a variable that would have far greater (positive) consequences than persuading a few thousand people in the US to ride a bike, especially if you look a few decades down the road. The US's supremacy as the biggest polluter is coming to an end.

[67-59]

Real change can only come from policies on emissions/efficiency, both for cars and industry, but the first step is to persuade people to accept new standards of autos. Nothing is going to change if we keep falling prey to Ford Tough commercials. We have to get over this obsession with giant cars, nobody really needs them.

Amen to that! The folks on Madison Ave. must be rolling with laughter every time someone buys a pickup (except for the few who really need them for work) or SUV. But people keep falling for it....

[bshell]

The very beginnings of the problem lie within people's defeatist attitudes.

Why assume that you're going to gash your tire, replace your tube, be late, and be pissed off before it has actually happened?

I've been riding for 18 years and unrideable tire damage has only happened twice. Yeah, you get the occasional flat but christ, think of the number of trouble free trips.


Also, I'm not at all versed in the science/costs behind the energy alternatives but to simply discount them as not cost effective and claim that petroleum has been a "nearly free" energy source for 70-100 years is madness. International tension, bloody conflict, environmental degradation (air pollution, mtbe poisoned water, greenhouse gases, crude spills, ...etc.).....how free is that?

Don't get me wrong. I love me some petroleum products (Look around you. If it's not metal, wood, or glass it's likely made from petroleum. Plastics, solvents, rubber, glues, nylon, polystyrene, and on and on and on.)but imagine if all of the dollars had gone into renewable energy as opposed to the problems mentioned above?

[jwprolo]

I live at the ocean and work in the mountains (tough life...). My commute is about 11 miles with 800 ft of climbing (max 9% grade). Beautiful trip. Packed my bag, put the lights on and started out at 5:30. Got to work (high school teacher) let myself into the locker room and proceeded to discover that there is NO HOT WATER in the showers. Not my idea of a way to start the day at 6:30 am. Being that I can't bring myself to take a cold shower, and there is no possible way of going without, I made the choice that I just couldn't do it. May try again as the weather gets warmer.

I suppose that the point is that there are many obstacles that get it the way of commuting by bicycle at this time. Each of them require a personal decision on how to deal with the challenge. The early morning cold shower was just too much for me.

As far as the price of gas goes, in cases of economics I think the spirit of Booker T. Washington's message is applicable. With out causing a firestorm (which mention of Mr. Washington often does) I have always thought his point was "The White American population does not like us, they don't want to deal with us and no amount of legislation will change their minds. What the Black American needs to do is create an economic situation where they (White folk) need us, thus creating equality on a financial level first. Other things will follow." Certainly there is a price at which people will give up their cars for short trips, but can you imagine what that price may be? Like many others, I don't think we will see cost ever reach that point--alternatives will be made available before then.

[Headwinds]

It is too bad that in this forum we can’t engage in a logical or civil political discussion as it has been proven in the past. But that aside, let me pitch in….

Many of you have valid points and observations about all this. As for me, I am an avid researcher/student of this topic: Peak Oil, US Dependency on oil, World Oil Markets, etc.

The problem of high oil prices is a very complex one, especially when you have the world’s 90% oil reserves in one of the most (politically) volatile areas of the world. And you have the world’s most powerful nations depending on that oil. As history has shown us so far, the time has come when those powerful nations will do anything possible to control or secure access to those oil reserves. First diplomatically, later militarily or by regime sabotage.

How long can this game last? Only time will tell. Most experts on the subject of Peak Oil are giving us not more than 20 years before things get really nasty.

CNY Rider asks: So where do you think the price point is for gasoline that will get at least some people out of their cars and either walking or cycling more?

Some people may start doing this soon. But for the vast majority of Americans the answer is NEVER! Why I say that? Well among other things, our VP once said that “there will be no compromise to change the American way of living….” The American way of living, I understand is driving (SUVs) everywhere, the suburban sprawl (and the commuting associated with it), etc. etc. How do you think that with this kind of thinking at the top, we would ever make real progress and start implementing the changes that are required reduce our oil dependency?

The other thing is that the USA missed the boat BIG time in the 70's when the Arab Oil Embargo took place. That was a critical time in our history when we should have done something serious to start working on the transportation infrastructure of this country. I think the Carter administration tried to do something about it (but not enough, IMO), but whatever they did was quickly forgotten on subsequent administrations.

I think the changes people will make will be dictated by the price they see at the pump, not by what our politicians tell us. I think when the gasoline starts getting close to $6 or $7, the average working person will spend close to their last discretionary dollar on gasoline before giving up driving their beloved and "essential" cars. I think that before we see many people getting on bikes, you will see a lot of stores going out of business.

Those well off will feel the effect as well. Remember, the rich depend on those with less money, more than they depend of other wealthy people. Wealthy people will afford their SUVs for a while, but where will they go to shop when all the stores are closed?

I do believe that in my current financial situation, I could afford gasoline as high as $10 per gallon and still retain a comfortable “American” lifestyle. But this is mostly because I do not drive often, and I have a reasonably efficient car.

However, rather than wait and see what will happen in the next few years, I have made a point to make my house a one automobile home, today!

Earlier this year, I thought of building a bike as a commuter but I have decided that the cost of the bike was getting too close to a scooter. A scooter has more cargo space than a bike, I would get 90 miles to the gallon, and would allow me to travel longer distances as when I to go the supermarket, etc. I will be getting a Vespa Scooter at the end of this month, just like many people (in the same social class that I am) have in Europe and Asia.

Mark my words..... This summer gasoline is going to be $4.00 per gallon!

[saab2000]

Well, at $4.00/gallon, my fancy new car will be sitting in the garage more. That's OK. I do have reasonable mass transit in Minneapolis. But I worry about my own career regarding aviation. There is no current viable substitute for oil for jet fuel.

Still, market prices will drive people's lifestyle choices. I think we could easily cut gasoline consumption 20% or more and not make huge sacrifices. We just need to be less wasteful in how we consume. No more idling at the convenience store. Fewer trips to the convenience store. Figure out the bus schedule. Move closer to my job.

There is a lot we can do for conservation. Yes, this nation will take a huge hit when the crunch time really comes. But so will the whole world. Necessity is the mother of invention and I have no doubt whatsoever that we will cope. Besides, maybe the end of oil can't come soon enough with the threat posed by global warming caused at least partially by oil consumption.

The earth is pounded daily by incalculable amounts of solar power. There are strong currents in the ocean and atmosphere. These energy sources have yet to be harnessed. It is there for the taking. And to those who say that it is all too expensive, well so be it. When oil is too expensive we will have no alternative. And when oil is too expensive then maybe some of those world hotspots will cool down as a result of the policies which exist in order to feed large segments of the world's population with cheap oil.

Funny I talk like this just having bought a new car....... :D

[Ray]

Also, I'm not at all versed in the science/costs behind the energy alternatives but to simply discount them as not cost effective and claim that petroleum has been a "nearly free" energy source for 70-100 years is madness. International tension, bloody conflict, environmental degradation (air pollution, mtbe poisoned water, greenhouse gases, crude spills, ...etc.).....how free is that?
Sorry, didn't mean it that way. I just meant in terms of the raw material, a relatively small amount produces a relatively HUGE amount of energy, and the material was pretty readily available, despite all of the discord that's come along as the supply levels off the and demand continues to go crazy. But you're clearly right about the consequences and long term costs not being anything even remotely like free. I meant 'nearly free' in a very limited context, that was probably meaningless given all of the true costs, as you point out.

Some people may start doing this soon. But for the vast majority of Americans the answer is NEVER! Why I say that? Well among other things, our VP once said that “there will be no compromise to change the American way of living….” The American way of living, I understand is driving (SUVs) everywhere, the suburban sprawl (and the commuting associated with it), etc. etc. How do you think that with this kind of thinking at the top, we would ever make real progress and start implementing the changes that are required reduce our oil dependency?

And, Headwinds, yeah its discouraging to hear the administration spouting off about high oil consumption being part of the 'blessed American life' or word to that effect (from Ari Fleisher a few years ago, before Bush 'discovered' that we were addicted to oil!). But I think that most Americans understand that things are going to have to change SOMEHOW but they're hanging on to the last bastion of a lifestyle that we've grown to love. Remember, Kerry had a relatively good energy plan (not good enough for me, but I'm a radical - but waaaay more reality based than the Bush approach and probably the best since Carter) and he didn't lose by much despite being a pretty terrible candidate. These are the kinds of attitude changes that can happen pretty quickly when the problems become undeniably obvious and $4.00 - $5.00 gasoline will convince a LOT of people that this is a serious problem that won't go away. Just like the vast majority of people believe that global warming is a real thing and, as the implications become more obviously alarming, I don't think you'll see another administration in such total denial about its existence.

Whether we'll do enough soon enough about energy supplies/conservation or global warming before things get 'really nasty' is another question, and I'm not optimistic about the outcome. But we have to at least TRY, no?

-Ray

[flydhest]

It's funny. I see hypothetical prices quoted here from $4 to $10 with them all seeming like crazy prices. Other countries have gas that is in that range and the result is more fuel efficient cars. Go figure. Cultural differences, etc are important, to be sure, but I guess I need to see evidence before I can believe that demand for gasoline is so inelastic that someone making $45K a year will continue to buy even close to the same volume of gas if the price is $10/gal.

On a previous, similar discussion where folks were discussing hybrids, there were those who saw themselves as cool-headed rationalists who cited reports that suggest that hybrids don't make economic sense. They do when gas is $6/gal and since folk have bought them at cheaper prices, I see no reason to think that more wouldn't buy them when gas doubles in price. The auto industry has responded some to regulation but a lot to the market in terms of fuel efficiency.

Slap a $1 tax on gas, I say.

The flip side, and the part that is hard to predict is the fact that supply has always increased in the past when price has gone up. Clearly, supply is finite ultimately, but anyone who says they know for certain the total supply of oil in the world that is profitable when oil is $100/bbl is fooling you.

[Ray]

The flip side, and the part that is hard to predict is the fact that supply has always increased in the past when price has gone up. Clearly, supply is finite ultimately, but anyone who says they know for certain the total supply of oil in the world that is profitable when oil is $100/bbl is fooling you.
Agree with almost everything you said, but not sure about the relevance of this last part. Sure, nobody knows exactly what the total supply is. But the folks who predicted the peak in American oil production in the early 70's were just about dead-on right. There seems to be near consensus in the industry (I may be wrong, but there's a lot of support for the idea anyway) that we are somewhere between 2 and 20 years from reaching the peak of worldwide production, if we're not already there. The price of oil and changes in exploration may delay the peak somewhat, but it seems to be a matter of when, not if. When supply actually starts going DOWN in the face of rapidly growing demand (from India and China as well as us), isn't the actual total supply number kind of irrelevant. I believe the ***** and the fan pretty much begin to make contact at that point and the only question is the intensity and degree of splatter. Sure, the demand will react to the inevitable enormous price increases, but doesn't this throw the economies of the developed world into a terrific tailspin?

-Ray

[spiderlake]

Scrooge - since you're familiar with the area, would you commute down the Beltline?? My new office is at 60th and Patterson which is essential a 15 mile shot straight down the Beltline/Broadmoor. I'm tempted to do it but everyone I talk to about the route thinks I'm nuts for even considering it. What do you think??

The sad thing - my office used to be downtown (6 miles away) and I never took advantage of being able to easily commute. I even rented a bike locker for two years! Such a fool.....

I was in a similiar situation. I rode in a little early and took it easy. I also gave myself a little extra time to stop sweating, wipe down with a towel and maybe a wetwipe for the pits. Either take clothes in when you drive occossions or roll them up and put them in a backback or a pannier (better--backpacks get hot and you sweat more). It can be done.

[Headwinds]

Agree with almost everything you said, but not sure about the relevance of this last part. Sure, nobody knows exactly what the total supply is. But the folks who predicted the peak in American oil production in the early 70's were just about dead-on right. There seems to be near consensus in the industry (I may be wrong, but there's a lot of support for the idea anyway) that we are somewhere between 2 and 20 years from reaching the peak of worldwide production, if we're not already there. The price of oil and changes in exploration may delay the peak somewhat, but it seems to be a matter of when, not if. When supply actually starts going DOWN in the face of rapidly growing demand (from India and China as well as us), isn't the actual total supply number kind of irrelevant. I believe the ***** and the fan pretty much begin to make contact at that point and the only question is the intensity and degree of splatter. Sure, the demand will react to the inevitable enormous price increases, but doesn't this throw the economies of the developed world into a terrific tailspin?

-Ray


Yeah.... The supply that flydhest refers to is just "artificial supply". In other words, after Katrina, the case was not that the Saudis decided to help us out by sending more oil. It was that the government was forced to tap the oil reserves to avoid gas hitting $5.00 or more a gallon in those days.

Furthermore, while the prices now continue to steadily increase, no one in the Middle East is offering to pump more oil and no oil company has offered to either build new refineries or to re-build the off-shore rigs that were damaged by the hurricane.

Let us all do our reading so when the crap hits the fan (if there is electricy to run it) we won't have to hide our heads in the sand....

[vandeda]

We have a surprising number of people bike where I work ... probably about a 100 or so people out of about 2000. It helps that our company is in the middle of the suburbs (which grew around the company), and the fact that engineers can be really really cheap.

I have it made personally. I get to live in a really nice suburb with streets lined with large maple trees, a small co-op grocery store about 1/10 mile down the road, small shopping plaza within walking distance, large shopping plaza (Lowes, Bed, Bath & Beyond, Barnes & Noble, couple restaurants, EMS, etc. etc.) within 5 miles, and only 2 miles from work. Oh, AND a bike path that runs along the Mohawk River 2 miles from my house. You'd be hard pressed to find a company that's located in a better spot. It's probably no surprise really that we have so many people bike to work in the summer. I truly am blessed with this setup.

I hope even more people commute by bike and more businesses start putting up bike racks! Oh, that would be such a great sight :banana:

Dan

[yeehawfactor]

Agree-snip-

-Ray
i think the poop began its movement towards the fan when we began planning suburbs around internally combusting gasoline engines.

[Ray]

i think the poop began its movement towards the fan when we began planning suburbs around internally combusting gasoline engines.
In retrospect, sure. But as radical as I am on these issues, even I wouldn't accuse folks back then of any malice. No way to recognize either poop or a fan then. Nobody could have envisioned the negative consequences of what would have happened when it was all new. Man, there was no downside to the suburbs in those days. Oil was essentially "free energy" then, people were escaping the polluted inner cities and had no idea the pollution they were creating would eventually be as bad or worse than what they were fleeing. Obesity - that was a luxury in those days! Social isolation and class segregation - those were features, not bugs! It was ALL GOOD. Until it wasn't, but that part kind of snuck up on us.

In trying to solve these problems, we will undoubtedly create unforseeable messes that future generations will have to clean up just like we're dealing with this one.

But, yeah, in retrospect the burbs created a pretty enormous mess that I don't see how we get out of in one piece. But I'll defer to the optimists and hope that good old capitalist ingenuity will find solutions.

-Ray

[Grant McLean]

As your Canadian neighbour to the north,
i'm preparing for the obviously approaching
American military invasion.

http://www.energy.gov.ab.ca/1876.asp


-g

[Fixed]

bro people who go without cars should get a tax write off on their new bike i.m.h.o. cheers

[manet]

As your Canadian neighbour to the north,
i'm preparing for the obviously approaching
American military invasion.

http://www.energy.gov.ab.ca/1876.asp


-g

please accept this case of silver handlebar tape
in appreciation for your future generosity........

[Fixed]

We have a surprising number of people bike where I work ... probably about a 100 or so people out of about 2000. It helps that our company is in the middle of the suburbs (which grew around the company), and the fact that engineers can be really really cheap.

I have it made personally. I get to live in a really nice suburb with streets lined with large maple trees, a small co-op grocery store about 1/10 mile down the road, small shopping plaza within walking distance, large shopping plaza (Lowes, Bed, Bath & Beyond, Barnes & Noble, couple restaurants, EMS, etc. etc.) within 5 miles, and only 2 miles from work. Oh, AND a bike path that runs along the Mohawk River 2 miles from my house. You'd be hard pressed to find a company that's located in a better spot. It's probably no surprise really that we have so many people bike to work in the summer. I truly am blessed with this setup.

I hope even more people commute by bike and more businesses start putting up bike racks! Oh, that would be such a great sight :banana:

Dan bro you guys need a old worn out bike mess.?
sounds like a cool place
cheers

[Grant McLean]

please accept this case of silver handlebar tape
in appreciation for your future generosity........


When youz guys take over our country to "fix" it,
just leave our beer alone!

-g

[Brons2]

As your Canadian neighbour to the north,
i'm preparing for the obviously approaching
American military invasion.

http://www.energy.gov.ab.ca/1876.asp


-g

BLAME CANADA! You uncle ****ers! :D

[flydhest]

Ray,

My understanding of the history of the market is a bit different. Oil reserves have been discovered over the past 30 years. Moreover, known oil reserves exist that are not worth developing at $35/bbl (which was the price for a long time) but are definitely worth it at sustained prices of $100/bbl. There are people who are quite knowledgeable in the field who sincerely believe that those who are of the near-term "peak oil" view are giving over to histrionics and that somewhere, there will be more reserves found. While this seems polly-anna-ish, and is not a view that I subscribe to,* history has been telling that when prices have gone up for extended periods, more oil has been "found" either in terms of new fields or better extraction methods to get more out of existing fields.



* The above disclaimer is important. While I have never been a proponent of letting markets take care of everything, I am consistently amazed at markets' powers to adapt and create.

[Ray]

Ray,

My understanding of the history of the market is a bit different. Oil reserves have been discovered over the past 30 years. Moreover, known oil reserves exist that are not worth developing at $35/bbl (which was the price for a long time) but are definitely worth it at sustained prices of $100/bbl. There are people who are quite knowledgeable in the field who sincerely believe that those who are of the near-term "peak oil" view are giving over to histrionics and that somewhere, there will be more reserves found. While this seems polly-anna-ish, and is not a view that I subscribe to,* history has been telling that when prices have gone up for extended periods, more oil has been "found" either in terms of new fields or better extraction methods to get more out of existing fields.



* The above disclaimer is important. While I have never been a proponent of letting markets take care of everything, I am consistently amazed at markets' powers to adapt and create.
Thanks for that perspective Flyd. I personally vacilate between the 'it can't be that bad' and 'it IS that bad' camp on this issue and most others that I only have a layman's understanding of, but I clearly WANT to believe that we have more time and that the sky isn't falling just yet. I guess the bottom line is we won't know for sure until after the fact. But what we do know is that there's is a finite supply and a peak out there at SOME point in the not terribly distant future and we need to be putting the brakes on our consumption now (with the brick wall at least evident on the horizon), rather than continuing to accellerate until its too late to avoid that wall. Which we HOPE we haven't done already.

-Ray

[scrooge]

Scrooge - since you're familiar with the area, would you commute down the Beltline?? My new office is at 60th and Patterson which is essential a 15 mile shot straight down the Beltline/Broadmoor. I'm tempted to do it but everyone I talk to about the route thinks I'm nuts for even considering it. What do you think??

The sad thing - my office used to be downtown (6 miles away) and I never took advantage of being able to easily commute. I even rented a bike locker for two years! Such a fool.....

Hmmm. Guess you could try it. It might make a big difference when you do it. I do see people biking down the beltline occassionally, and there is a shoulder/path for a good chunk of it if I recall correctly.
Personally, I'm a bit of a weenie and probably wouldn't do it--however, I probably would look into other routes (even though they might be longer). For example, you could maybe take Spaulding, depending where you live...
I'm not super familiar with the roads (I just walk to class every day, that's about it), but my wife does ride down to her job at Patterson/Broadmoor, which I think would be in the same ballpark (unless I'm really messed up...). She rides down Burton and then takes the sidewalk all the way down Patterson to avoid the traffic--its only about six miles, so she uses her mountain bike with slicks.

[palincss]

I hope it's not true. I would hope that at some price ($4 a gallon? $5?) there would be some economic effect on people's behavior. Are we really a nation of sheeple that can't get off our oversized rears and change behavior? I actually think that at some price economics will win out, and my guess it's around $4 per gallon.

Yes, but what will the behavior change be? I suspect it is more likely that people will forego other economic activity in order to continue paying for gas, rather than switch to an alternate mode of transportation.

For many, if not most, there is no other viable mode of transportation. If you live in the sprawl, once you get out of the development all there is are major collectors, and they're not a hospitable environment for bicycles. And if you live 40 or 50 miles from work (one way) as many who live in the sprawl do, you're not going to be riding to work no matter what sort of roads there are.

I'm not at all against bicycle commuting. In fact, I've been commuting to work by bicycle for the past 26 years. But, I live 8 miles from downtown DC in Alexandria VA, less than two miles from the Potomac River and the Mount Vernon Bicycle Trail, not in the sprawl. It's no accident I'm there: it's far and away the best place to live if you want to commute to downtown DC by bicycle. But there's a world of difference between a 16 mile commute and an eighty or hundred (or even two hundred) mile commute.

So, what are the viable alternatives?

[palincss]

I live six miles from work on Long Island and would love to ride to work and can even take back roads, to boot. However, how do I address the real problem of arriving at work sweaty with wrinkled cloths carried in a back pack? No showers and I have people in my office for business daily.

I've been commuting to work 8 miles each way for the past 26 years. I never arrive at work sweaty, even though I live in the metro Washington DC area, a place famous for its hot humid summers. I never have wrinkled clothes, and I never use a backpack. In fact, I have never had to take a shower at work, although I do have shower facilities available to me.

Sweaty


At 7-8 am, it's not that hot even in a Washington DC August. Although it might hit 100 at 4pm and the humidity might be around 80%, at 7:30 it's usually a pleasant 75 or so. If you ride in that weather, you get acclimated to that weather, and it basically feels cool and comfortable.
You dress for it. If you wear the right clothes, you don't get all that sweaty.
You ride for it. It's not a race, and there's no need to ride at 80% of your max heart rate.
Sure, by 5 pm it's pretty hot and humid. There are lots of times I have to douse myself with a water bottle to stay cool on the way home. It's the way home, and it doesn't matter if I need a shower when I get there.
Some folks take sponge baths with alcohol or similar. There are plenty of other solutions out there too.


Wrinkled clothes


I usually commute on a touring bike (a Bruce Gordon Rock 'n Road Tour) with a rear rack and panniers. Since we have a business casual dress policy here, I don't have to carry really bulky clothes. So a pair of small panniers does me fine. If I needed to, I could of course carry larger panniers, including models made especially to carry suits without wrinkling.
I work with some folks who bring in a week's worth of clothes when they come in by car, and leave the clothes in the office until the next scheduled "laundry run". It works for them.

[manet]

for humane behavior change try this:

http://www.psychology.sbc.edu/bobb.htm

[flydhest]

Yes, but what will the behavior change be? I suspect it is more likely that people will forego other economic activity in order to continue paying for gas, rather than switch to an alternate mode of transportation.

For many, if not most, there is no other viable mode of transportation. If you live in the sprawl, once you get out of the development all there is are major collectors, and they're not a hospitable environment for bicycles. And if you live 40 or 50 miles from work (one way) as many who live in the sprawl do, you're not going to be riding to work no matter what sort of roads there are.

I'm not at all against bicycle commuting. In fact, I've been commuting to work by bicycle for the past 26 years. But, I live 8 miles from downtown DC in Alexandria VA, less than two miles from the Potomac River and the Mount Vernon Bicycle Trail, not in the sprawl. It's no accident I'm there: it's far and away the best place to live if you want to commute to downtown DC by bicycle. But there's a world of difference between a 16 mile commute and an eighty or hundred (or even two hundred) mile commute.

So, what are the viable alternatives?

I respect your comments, but I guess I wonder why you think that the demand for gasoline is so insensitive to price. I admit freely that I can't put my hand on good studies right now to prove otherwise, but observation across countries (granted, cultural difference matter a lot) and through time--note the evolution of fuel efficiency through the 70s to present, suggests to me that price has a big impact.

That said, your choice of where to live speaks volumes. Indeed, I see this type of choice possibly being the outcome of higher prices. People routinely pay more now to be near metro so there is demand for public transit--I can easily imagine that growing as the cost of commuting by car becomes 4 or 5 times that of public transit. An opportunity--sure to be squandered says the cynic in me--for the regional planners.

And just to tease, I think my commute is the best in DC. I live near the Zoo and have 3 miles to my office at 20th and C. Now that's a great commute. Downhill on the way in, no sweating required--uphill on the way home, great to vent the frustrations of the day! Seriously, though, I have colleagues who do a bike commute a lot like yours and they all feel very fortunate to have that bike path/commute. Yours is more scenic than mine.

[zap]

But you can't beat tele-commute.

This is the best short to mid-term solution.

[flydhest]

But you can't beat tele-commute.

This is the best short to mid-term solution.

indeed.

[RichardSeton]

There is a time element to the elasticity of demand for gasoline. In the short term, demand is very inelastic. That's because people have organized their lived around a specific cost, and they can't change what they do (type of car, where they live, etc) very quickly. However, in the longer term (5 - 10 years), demand can be quite elastic. People then will buy more fuel efficient cars, live closer to work, and change other habits.

I wouldn't expect to see wholesale commuting to work by bike. Even a doubling the number of bike commuters will make little difference to our overall oil consumption, although it may help with the acceptance of that option.

[QUOTE=flydhest]I respect your comments, but I guess I wonder why you think that the demand for gasoline is so insensitive to price. I admit freely that I can't put my hand on good studies right now to prove otherwise, but observation across countries (granted, cultural difference matter a lot) and through time--note the evolution of fuel efficiency through the 70s to present, suggests to me that price has a big impact.

[flydhest]

There is a time element to the elasticity of demand for gasoline. In the short term, demand is very inelastic. That's because people have organized their lived around a specific cost, and they can't change what they do (type of car, where they live, etc) very quickly. However, in the longer term (5 - 10 years), demand can be quite elastic. People then will buy more fuel efficient cars, live closer to work, and change other habits.

I wouldn't expect to see wholesale commuting to work by bike. Even a doubling the number of bike commuters will make little difference to our overall oil consumption, although it may help with the acceptance of that option.


There have been documented slowdowns in the demand for SUVs even in the short run as gas prices have risen. The Post's car writer--Warren Brown--was discussing this fact today. Of course elasticity is higher in the long run, that seems to be fairly close to a truism across markets. Of course, as Keynes said, in the long run we're all dead. (In reply to which Samuelson years later corrected, in the long run, we're each dead. A comment that has always tickled me.) More over, the DC bike coordinator was on the radio yesterday talking up the development of bike planning here. It clearly has a ways to go, but I've noticed an increase in bike commuting in the past 7 years of bike commuting in DC that is well over a doubling.

In any event, of course there cannot be a substitution from cars to bikes that is wholesale. But there are many alternatives and market forces are amazingly strong.

[LegendRider]

When the price of oil increases, the quantity demanded decreases (how much is based on the elasticity of the demand curve). This is a change in quantity demanded.

However, many folks advocate a change in demand (an actual shift in demand not based on price) for moral, ethical, social or environmental reasons. The paradox of this is we will simply allow the Chinese, Indians, etc. to have their oil at a cheaper price.

Flydhest, please put your Princeton whammy on this analysis.

[Ray]

However, many folks advocate a change in demand (an actual shift in demand not based on price) for moral, ethically, social or environmental reasons. The paradox of this is we will simply allow the Chinese, Indians, etc. to have their oil at a cheaper price.True, but we may also delay the day of reckoning by conserving and by adapting to living with less oil, we may be better prepared to deal with that day of reckoning when it arrives. Not to imply that there will be a discrete 'day' of reckoning, but the earlier we start the inevitable transition, the less traumatic it's likely to be. So there's some pretty basic self-interest at work here too, even if it's slightly deferred self-interest.

-Ray

[yeehawfactor]

True, but we may also delay the day of reckoning by conserving and by adapting to living with less oil, we may be better prepared to deal with that day of reckoning when it arrives. Not to imply that there will be a discrete 'day' of reckoning, but the earlier we start the inevitable transition, the less traumatic it's likely to be. So there's some pretty basic self-interest at work here too, even if it's slightly deferred self-interest.

-Ray
in other words, it will make things less mp. :beer:

[flydhest]

LegendRider,
That's about right. Same would happen if we, for example, tax oil/gasoline. Demand here falls, more left for the rest of the world. I suppose I don't really see that as a problem. One difficulty with these things being a global problem is that what others do affects us. So even if we reduce our pollution and find cheaper sources of energy, the greenhouse gas effect will still be there if others are using oil. But . . . if the predictions are right and oil is likely to run out or get dramatically more expensive soon, then whoever can adapt away from it most easily gets the biggest benefit.

As it is, I do believe that as oil gets more expensive, people will find better ways of doing things. Over a decade ago, both Honda and Toyota had non-hybrid cars that could get 50+ mpg but they didn't sell. That's looking real attractive now.

[spiderlake]

Your wife must work just a block away from me. I'm thinking I could ride the path down to 28th Street or maybe to 29th and then cut over to East Paris and then follow that maze around until it pops out on Patterson. Spaulding is out of my way since I'd be coming from Knapp/East Beltline (Meijer). Bike to Work week is just around the corner and I just may do it this year. We have showers at work and we also have the luxury of on-site dry cleaning services. In essence, I don't have a excuse not to try it!

Hmmm. Guess you could try it. It might make a big difference when you do it. I do see people biking down the beltline occassionally, and there is a shoulder/path for a good chunk of it if I recall correctly.
Personally, I'm a bit of a weenie and probably wouldn't do it--however, I probably would look into other routes (even though they might be longer). For example, you could maybe take Spaulding, depending where you live...
I'm not super familiar with the roads (I just walk to class every day, that's about it), but my wife does ride down to her job at Patterson/Broadmoor, which I think would be in the same ballpark (unless I'm really messed up...). She rides down Burton and then takes the sidewalk all the way down Patterson to avoid the traffic--its only about six miles, so she uses her mountain bike with slicks.

[palincss]

Your wife must work just a block away from me. I'm thinking I could ride the path down to 28th Street or maybe to 29th and then cut over to East Paris and then follow that maze around until it pops out on Patterson. Spaulding is out of my way since I'd be coming from Knapp/East Beltline (Meijer). Bike to Work week is just around the corner and I just may do it this year. We have showers at work and we also have the luxury of on-site dry cleaning services. In essence, I don't have a excuse not to try it!

Then by all means, do try it -- you might just find that you love it, and that it might be the most enjoyable part of your entire day. Besides, you get to train without having to actually spend any time doing it, and your trip to work is free. What's not to like about that? :banana:

[Tom]

I traded the Civic Si for an Element. However, I have a plan.

I drive to work with several changes of clothing and the bike in the back. I park the truck up at the building that has all night guards and cameras on the parking lot and ride home. I ride in the next day, we still have showers in that building, and head 300 yards down the hill to my building after changing. I can do this all week.

If something goes wrong, Karen drops me off on her way into Albany and I drive the truck home that night.

When I'm not riding, we car pool.

[Ahneida Ride]

So far the discussion has focused on the commodity oil and it's relative scarcity. But oil is traded in federal reserve notes, frn's, some incorrectly
still refer to them as dollars. Too many frn's floating around in the cause of
inflation. Inflation is not higher prices. It is our wealth or purchasing power
gradually being stolen by the slow and persistent dilution of our currency.

Frn's are created outa thin air. That is right .... thin air. In a nut shell, here is
the game. Our Government cannot tax us enough to pay its bills. We would
revolt. But neither can it cut spending. We have all grown accustom to our
particular favorite programs. Thus a dilemma. This is solved by issuing Government Bonds or notes. The interest rate is low and they don't sell out.
The Fed (a PRIVATE central bank or cartel) then buys these notes. They
create the money ( federal reserve notes ) outa thin air and place it into
a Government checking account. The Government then spends these frn ( created outa thin air ). They wind up in circulation and their eventual destination is a bank. That is the frn is deposited in a bank.

OK.... Now the magic really begins. Let's say the Fed creates 1 billion frn.
The banks using something called fractional reserve banking to expand this
1 billion frn to 9 billion frn. If you or I have 100 in our wallet, we can only lend out 100. But if the bank has 100 in is vault it can lend out 900.

How you ask? Wel .... say 100 is deposited in a bank. They say 90 is excess
and they lend that out. ( right away there is a problem. they told the
depositor of the 100 that he could withdraw it at any time ). They create
the 90 outa thin air just like the fed, by opening an account an placing 90 in it. ( just a few seconds work on a computer ) ... well the 90 eventually works
it way back to the bank and they play the same game. They can now lend out 90% of the 90 ( that was created outa thin air ) or 81. They 81 is spend
and works it way back into the bank and the bank now can lend out 90% of
81 or 72. Of course the 72 is also created outa thin air by opening an account and placing 72 in it. Now ... Repeat this process about 28 times
and the original 100 expands into 900.

Now there is no word in English for creating $$$$ outa thin air. So I
invented one... frnacation

The money supply expands and we get diluted alive thru the hidden tax
of inflation. Make no mistake. Inflation is a tax. This is why many prices
have jumped by a factor of 10 since 1970. and now so has gas, from
32 cent per gallon to now 3 frn. I might add that when gas was 32 cents
a gallon, gold was 32 dollars an ounce. Now where is gold today ?

The rest of the world is not stupid. They are aware of frnacation. so they
simply demand more frn for a barrel of oil. Now combine frnacation with
the increasing demand and decreasing supply for oil and one has a recipe
for disaster. Arabs are not stupid either. When Nixon said that foreign
entities could no longer exchange dollars for gold. Gas prices suddenly
sky rocket.

I shutter when I think that oil may be eventually traded in Euro's not frn's.
and the frn's hegemony has ended.

Finally, Compare and old bill and a new bill. Notice how small they made
the print that says. "Federal Reserve Note". Think that is by accident?

One solution is have the Fed and the banks create oil outa thin air
just like they create the frn. :D

[Climb01742]

LegendRider,
That's about right. Same would happen if we, for example, tax oil/gasoline. Demand here falls, more left for the rest of the world. I suppose I don't really see that as a problem. One difficulty with these things being a global problem is that what others do affects us. So even if we reduce our pollution and find cheaper sources of energy, the greenhouse gas effect will still be there if others are using oil. But . . . if the predictions are right and oil is likely to run out or get dramatically more expensive soon, then whoever can adapt away from it most easily gets the biggest benefit.

As it is, I do believe that as oil gets more expensive, people will find better ways of doing things. Over a decade ago, both Honda and Toyota had non-hybrid cars that could get 50+ mpg but they didn't sell. That's looking real attractive now.

here's what i don't understand: imagine the market for an alternative energy source to oil. it could dwarf the market for silicon chips. if i were a politician, i would frame the argument that way: alternatives to oil aren't a goody-two-shoes, tree-hugging play. there are a cold hard money play. whatever country or company that cracks this riddle could make microsoft look like a lemonade stand. to wave the flag...wouldn't we want this to be an american industry, not a japanese industry or an indian or chinese industry? silicon was last century's gold rush. an oil-alternative is this century's big money maker.

[zap]

Climb, ADM might interest you.

Look what Brazil did as well.

[flydhest]

Ahneida,
Close, but a couple of the details are a bit out of alignment. Federal Reserve Notes are the physical pieces of paper with faces and numbers on them. They are apart from the fractional reserve accounting that creates "money" as taught in economics classes. The Federal Reserve does buy Treasury debt, and in large quantities. This debt, however, is bought indirectly, only from private parties, never directly from the government.

Federal Reserve notes get into circulation when a bank buys them from the Fed. Essentially, there is an exchange between the Fed and the public of Federal Reserve notes and government debt. Federal Reserve notes are as valuable (or not based on your point of view) as Treasury debt. Having the exchange be for something like gold doesn't fundamentally alter the process. People value government debt because they believe the value will be there tomorrow. It always has been in the post-War era. People value gold because they believe it will have value tomorrow. Gold is worth money because people are willing to pay for it.

If all exchange were to take place in gold coins instead of dollars (defined however you like) then we could still see oil prices rise relative to the price of other goods.



Climb,
You are right on. This is another source of the sanguine outlook for many economists. The argument is that if oil is $100 to $150/bbl, wind, solar, geothermal, as-yet-undiscovered sources of energy are all of a sudden money makers. So let the price of oil go up and up and that alone--the argument goes--will foster innovation and new energy sources. I have to say it's somewhat compelling. On the other hand, government intervention has a long history of helping innovation (though often screwing other things up). The computer industry, for example, got a huge shot in the arm from the space race.

[marle]

Now there is no word in English for creating $$$$ outa thin air. So I
invented one... frnacation




Goldsmiths in the Middle Ages expanded the money supply through use of reserves. The act of money creation is independant of the medium.

[Climb01742]

Look what Brazil did as well.

yes indeed. so of course we have import restrictions on sugar cane. :rolleyes:

what can brazil say to OPEC that we can't?

[Headwinds]

So far the discussion has focused on the commodity oil and it's relative scarcity. But oil is traded in federal reserve notes....

....I shutter when I think that oil may be eventually traded in Euro's not frn's.
and the frn's hegemony has ended.

Yeah Ahneida,

I didn't want to get into this because this post can go the "wrong" direction and get "censored". But have you heard that one of the (REAL) reasons we went to Iraq is because Saddam wanted to sell Iraq's oil in Euro?

In the same token, the Iran rethoric has intensified in the last few months, not so much because WMD's, but because Iran is trying to start an Oil Bourse based in Euro....

If you think the (Iraq) party was good, just wait for a few more months to come! We are in for a real good one!!!!

Check these out:
http://www.worldpress.org/Mideast/2314.cfm

[Ahneida Ride]

Ahneida,
This debt, however, is bought indirectly, only from private parties, never directly from the government.

But the final destination is the Fed, Just like I purchased my Legend from an LBS not Serotta, The route may be circuitous but the end result is the
same.


People value government debt because they believe the value will be there tomorrow. It always has been in the post-War era. People value gold because they believe it will have value tomorrow. Gold is worth money because people are willing to pay for it.


People value frn's because they have no choice. One MUST accept them
under penalty of law, vis et armis, force of arms. (unless one prearranges
an exchange contract). This was not true of our previous central bank, the bank of the United States whose charter was revoked in 1836. When frn's were first released they were backed and redeemable for metallic commodity. People were a lot smarter back then, they simply would not accept unbacked script. Just look at the proclamations on the old notes . They read " The United States of America will pay to the Bearer on demand x dollars." Gradually, almost 100 years, we have been weaned off equating script with any backing at all. One now needs an electron microscope to
see the demarkation " Federal Reserve Note" on a new bill. This is not by
accident. We all must accept an frn. If not, before long, we would all demand
payment in script backed by an non dilutable asset, not debt backed by the Goverments ability to tax us.


If all exchange were to take place in gold coins instead of dollars (defined however you like) then we could still see oil prices rise relative to the price of other goods.


Very True ... But we could also see them go down also !!!!!

In 1970 gas = 32 cents. Gold = $32/oz 1 oz gold purchased 100 gallons.
Today gas = $3.00 Gold = $620/oz 1 oz gold now buys 206 gallons.

So the bozo who decided to store wealth in gold not frn has done rather
well I would say. Imagine if we had Dollars, not frns. In 1970 dollars
gas would be 16 cents a gallon !!!!! You could take 32 dollars, redeem it
for an ounce of gold then get 620 frn and purchase 200 gallons of Gas !!!!!!


Goldsmiths in the Middle Ages expanded the money supply through use of reserves. The act of money creation is independent of the medium.


This is so true. This is exactly how fractional reserve banking began.
The goldsmiths first realized that not everyone would at once would reclaim the gold stored with them. The receipts they gave out for the gold began to be passed around instead of the gold. Some people accepted the receipts.
However one was not compelled to accept a receipt. If one did not trust the issuing goldsmith or bank, one did not accept the script and demanded full payment in gold. The frn is a receipt that you must accept whether you like it or not. Fractional Reserve banking is the real problem and the Fed is a cartel designed to protect this duplictious behavior. Of course, it is always
sold as "For Your Protection". Well look at what 10k purchase in 1910
and what 10K purchases now. QED.



I didn't want to get into this because this post can go the "wrong" direction and get "censored". But have you heard that one of the (REAL) reasons we went to Iraq is because Saddam wanted to sell Iraq's oil in Euro?

In the same token, the Iran rhetoric has intensified the last few months, not so much because WDM's, but because Iran is trying to start an Oil Bourse based in Euro....

If you think the (Iraq) party was good, just wait for a few more months to come! We are in for a real good one!!!!


I hear you completely. I too am reluctant to post again. Imagine oil trading
in Euros ? WOW ! That would rock some boats.

I find it most remarkable the Paul Wolfowitz now heads up the world bank.

One more. I saw in person a 1963 5 dollar United Sates Note yesterday.
The ones that Kennedy was supposed to issue. Well I guess a few of them
snuck out. I was stunned. I am sure a lot of people did not like USN's being
issued.

Guess I have said too much already. But the Fed need not worry. I am
just one jerk and the American public is much too apathetic.

[Headwinds]

Guess I have said too much already. But the Fed need not worry. I am
just one jerk and the American public is much too apathetic.

BUT, for those of you interested, check out this film:
http://www.freedomtofascism.com/

Nuf said!

R.

[flydhest]

Couple points of clarification.

It matters a great deal whether the Fed buys directly from the Government or not. In other times and in other countries, the central bank directly buys from the government. This essentially means that debt is automatically converted into "money." Put differently, going through the market means that one can infer what policy is going on by the interest rates observed, not necessarily the case with direct purchases.

One does not have to accept Federal Reserve Notes. You are perfectly allowed to demand payment in other forms, if you want, but you'll have very few people with whom to do business. If you decide that you want to engage in barter, there will be nothing the government can do about it.

Oil prices rise and fall all the time. Regardless of the medium of exhange. Had one invested the same money in long-term Treasury bonds, you would have out performed gold.

Again, Federal Reserve notes are not linked to fractional reserve accounting. You could completely eliminate one without changing the other.

Bicycling related content, I try to carry a $10 Federal Reserve note with me when cycling in case of emergency, such as the need for coffee or buying Sandy a bagel.

[Ray]

Bicycling related content, I try to carry a $10 Federal Reserve note with me when cycling in case of emergency, such as the need for coffee or buying Sandy a bagel.
I do the same - I even keep one permanently in my seat bag for emergencies, but I have yet to buy Sandy a bagel. But Flyd, with your inner and impressive knowledge of the ways of money, how would my keeping this one particular tenner out of circulation and in my seat bag affect the rate of inflation, government borrowing, international currency exchange, and the flight of the black helicopters?

This is of some urgency - I really need to know.

-Ray

[Ahneida Ride]

I would like to state for the record that I know the flyman and I have the utmost respect for the guy. He is a true gentlemen of impeccable integrity.
I only wish Fly was running the fed since it's inception in 1913.
I sincerely appreciate his knowledge and distilled wisdom. ;)


Couple points of clarification.

It matters a great deal whether the Fed buys directly from the Government or not. In other times and in other countries, the central bank directly buys from the government. This essentially means that debt is automatically converted into "money." Put differently, going through the market means that one can infer what policy is going on by the interest rates observed, not necessarily the case with direct purchases.


Could you elaborate on the exact intermediate process? What does going thru
the market mean? I know that ( mortgage backed securities ) MBS are
purchase thru middlemen and then sold to the public. Is not the fed the ultimate purchaser of unsold Government notes. Do we, the tax payer, pay
interest to the fed on this "money" that the fed created outa thin air to
back the Government Notes ? If the Government diluted us with United States
Notes, there would be no interest payment.

I love to have the smoke and mirrors removed and know exactly how
the fed purchases our national debt.


One does not have to accept Federal Reserve Notes. You are perfectly allowed to demand payment in other forms, if you want, but you'll have very few people with whom to do business. If you decide that you want to engage in barter, there will be nothing the government can do about it.


Suppose I am a dentist and I perform a root canal. After the procedure
The patient offers me 1000 frn. I say no. I want to be pay in gold ?
Then what happens? Why do bills say, "This note is legal tender for
all debts, public and private." What is the legal implication of this statement?


Oil prices rise and fall all the time. Regardless of the medium of exchange. Had one invested the same money in long-term Treasury bonds, you would have out performed gold.


This is true, and my point exactly. One cannot store one's wealth in
frn. One is being diluted alive. This is a tragedy that one cannot store
one labor in the nation's currency. Real Money stores human effort or
at least attempts to.


Again, Federal Reserve notes are not linked to fractional reserve accounting. You could completely eliminate one without changing the other.


The frn is exactly the denomination the fed uses to create money outa
thin air and the banks use to practice fractional reserve banking. It is
their tool. The Government shopping coupon is the frn.


Bicycling related content, I try to carry a $10 Federal Reserve note with me when cycling in case of emergency, such as the need for coffee or buying Sandy a bagel.

Good point ! a bagel and coffee is now 10 frn ! used to be 75 cents.
At Starbucks its 27 frn.

I use a 1 frn to repair holes in my tire. Cause due to the fed and fractional
reserve banking, it won't even purchase a soda or even a cup of coffee
anymore. The end result of frnacation.

The flyman is right. Most frn's reside in a computer not in paper and
the real problem is the "creative" accounting behing the frn.

I wonder if Sandy frnacates? Perhaps only going up hills?

[zap]

Ahneida Ride, your posts brings to mind a book I recently finished. One section in this book discussed the Fed and how it was initially structured. I've since learned that the Fed's structure was revised I believe in the 20's, which this book did not mention. If this change was mentioned in this book, I suspect the authors arguement would have been greatly diminished.

Anyhow, I find Fly's posts very informative.

[flydhest]

Similar to Ahneida's comment, I hold him in high regard, lest there be any confusion. One of the few people who makes me feel short. Him and TooTall.

When the Treasury sells debt to the market, if there's too much or the public doesn't want to hold it, the price falls and so interest rates rise. The Fed, however, would like to control at least one interest rate. When the Fed buys debt, it pays the seller by creating a deposit in the account a bank has with the Fed. The funds in these accounts are traded among banks in a market called the federal funds market. If the Fed buys a lot of securities, more funds deposited in these accounts (note, these are not like a household's checking account, these are accounts banks have with the Fed) and the interest rate tends to fall. Go in the opposite direction to get the interest rate to rise.

sidebar: for info on how the Fed works see:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pf/pf.htm

So, if the Fed were the source of demand for Treasury debt, willing to buy all that the Treasury wants to borrow, you'd see a great increase in the funds supplied to the market--directly related to the Treasury's issuance of debt. The fact that the Fed pursues interest rate policy independent of Treasury's debt financing is the important distinction. The vast majority of the $4-1/2 trillion of marketable debt from the Treasury is held by private citizens. see http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdhisms.htm
for the monthly statement of public debt and
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/
for the Fed's balance sheet.

The holdings of the debt by the Fed do receive interest payments, but Fed earnings are turned over to the Treasury, so it's a net wash.

One more clarification: Federal Reserve notes are the little pieces of paper. Money in a households checking accounts are denominated in dollars as well, but they are not Federal Reserve notes. FR notes are a liability of the Fed, bank deposits are a liability of the bank. Banks are insured by things like the FDIC, but the deposits are liabilities of the bank.

If you are that dentist, specify in advance the payment you will accept. This is why shops post which credit cards, for example, they accept. Refuse to supply the good/service if payment terms are not acceptable. This can be the "contract" which the customer can accept or decline. The "legal tender" statement is (I think) historical, inasmuch as the history of US banking has seen other central banks and some private banks that issue their own currency. Some did not have a license to print money.

Re: the store of wealth, it depends, I do not mean this at all facetiously, one one's definition of money. We often say "he has lots of money" about someone who might own three homes, five cars, and a yacht. Currency (Federal Reserve notes) are but one asset among many that are denominated in dollars. T-bonds are also denominated in dollars, as are bank accounts, be they checking or savings or CDs. Different assets pay different returns. Currency's return in zero in nominal terms and the negative of the inflation rate in real (that is, purchasing power) terms. If you had a $10 bill in 1950 and a $10 bill in 2006, you still have $10 it just buys a lot less. Most interest rates are quoted in nominal terms, but one can compute the real return by subtracting off the expected inflation rate. The Treasury also issues debt that increases in value with the inflation rate. These are called Treasury inflation protected securities or TIPS. I would not store my wealth in currency for a long period of time, but it sure is handy in terms of buying a bagel. I can't easily negotiate with the store owner to take a portion of my investment portfolio. Herein lies the tradeoff. Liquidity or ease of transactions against higher return. I personally like to have some of each, with weight heavily skewed to the less-liquid, but higher-paying, assets. I usually have only about $20 on me.

Bike-related content: If the Fed wanted to, and there were a large enough market, they could actually conduct open market operations in bicycles instead of Treasury securities. The asset doesn't matter, it's the fact that the Fed can create balances for banks when it buys assets from them. Now, wouldn't that be an interesting prospect?

[Ahneida Ride]

It is now time for me shut up and digest the Flymans comments.

I am an neophye in area. My background is in Math and I just
have an innate curosity as to how the banking system works.

I have formulated some strong opinions, perhaps a few are in error.
I will consult with Dr. Flyman thru PM and E-mail and get my facts
straight.

I BE BACK.

[Ahneida Ride]

Again I would like to thank Dr. Prof. Flyman and Serotta and my Serotta pals for this enlightening discussion. ;)

[Ahneida Ride]

One of the few people who makes me feel short. Him and TooTall.


Dr. Flyman ... Obviously you never met Uncle William. He makes a
M1 Tank look small.