Will Current Politics Impact the TDF?

[Hawker]

Sort of hate to even consider this....and perhaps "politics" is the wrong word? But given the climate in France right now...there must be concern and I presume a much more heightened security presence will be expected this year.

[Black Dog]

Sort of hate to even consider this....and perhaps "politics" is the wrong word? But given the climate in France right now...there must be concern and I presume a much more heightened security presence will be expected this year.

The Tour will always be a target for those that seek attention for their cause. There will be more security this year following the attacks from the religious murderers.

[tiretrax]

It's been a concern for a while. Since it's a sport that travels hundreds of K on a stage that is open to the public, it's an easy target. Hopefully, the french and european security forces will have a handle on the cells.

[BumbleBeeDave]

. . . see a heightened police and military presence, especially in the cities. I would imagine that the gendarmes would be even less likely to be patient with fans this year.

BBD

[unterhausen]

I don't think the French are quite as prone to over-reaction as the U.S. is

[MattTuck]

Yeah, I'm sure there will be more security. If they can't stop someone from throwing tacks on the road, its not clear to me how they'll stop a more serious threat.

[pitonpat]

He's got some experience with both cycling & protesters...

[zap]

I don't think the French are quite as prone to over-reaction as the U.S. is

France certainly is reacting http://www.wsj.com/articles/france-takes-an-activist-line-in-the-muslim-world-1421873087

[93legendti]

France has suffered terror attacks for over 40 years and fought a brutal war in Algeria. The flight hijacked to Entebbe in '76 was an Air France plane. This isn't something new.

This am on Morning Joe, they described the current US posture as an under reaction.

[goonster]

Wait . . . there are cartoonists in the peloton?

[Stephen2014]

There will be Jewish riders, and Christian riders, I hope they all remain safe. The terrorists may consider the TdF a very big publicity gaining target when it's on.

[FlashUNC]

A more appropriate thread title would be "Will some crazy people do something crazy."

The answer, as always, who knows?

[cmg]

here, protest my fist! :)

[JStonebarger]

Wait . . . there are cartoonists in the peloton?

The ASO has put Muhammad on the maillot jaune.

[Wesley37]

There will be Jewish riders, and Christian riders, I hope they all remain safe. The terrorists may consider the TdF a very big publicity gaining target when it's on.

http://i1.wp.com/www.loonwatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/barchart-copy-502x502-custom.jpg?resize=502%2C502

The probability of terrorists of a Christian identity and an affiliation to a separatist group striking is far far far higher than Islamist terrorists. Which is pretty damned unlikely.

Chalk this up to American ignorance of the rest of the world, but terrorism in Europe is down quite a bit in the last couple of decades, and Muslims are not even close to the biggest threat.

[rwsaunders]

http://i1.wp.com/www.loonwatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/barchart-copy-502x502-custom.jpg?resize=502%2C502

The probability of terrorists of a Christian identity and an affiliation to a separatist group striking is far far far higher than Islamist terrorists. Which is pretty damned unlikely.

Chalk this up to American ignorance of the rest of the world, but terrorism in Europe is down quite a bit in the last couple of decades, and Muslims are not even close to the biggest threat.

Let's look a little deeper and more current that 2006-2008...
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/01/daily-chart-8

[Black Dog]

As always, I am very leery of any belief system that regulates behaviour based on reward or fear of punishment. I would rather that folks not murder me because they intrinsically know that murder is wrong and not because they are seeking a reward for good behaviour or trying to avoid punishment. The inverse hold true that I would be very happy if people were not offered some reward (couple dozen virgins or doing the work of an invisible sky god in exchange for immortality...) for killing. History is replete with this kind of less than fun behaviour from many sources.

[Black Dog]

Let's look a little deeper and more current that 2006-2008...
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/01/daily-chart-8

http://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/original-size/images/2015/01/blogs/graphic-detail/20150117_gdm001_1.png

[Wesley37]

So... Including the latest atrocities, we are still looking at less than 20 fatalities in 15 years. Oh yeah, the TdF better be on high alert.

In the post WWII period, this counts as a distinct lull in terrorism. In the 1970s terrorism was a big concern, by comparison, and it never impacted the TdF, that I am aware of.

[rwsaunders]

^ How about if we give you the latest worldwide monthly tally and please be reminded, you don't need to die to be a victim of terror. As instability increases in the Middle East and Africa, the threat to western Europe increases at a much higher level than we can measure. Sad but true.

[Wesley37]

http://www.disorderlyreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/chicken_little-sky-is-falling.jpg

[goonster]

Let's look a little deeper and more current that 2006-2008...
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/01/daily-chart-8
That chart is apparently missing the National-Socialist Underground (NSU) murders in Germany.

Western Europe survived the IRA/UVF, ETA, OSA, Red Brigades, RAF, et al, and that's just the most prominent autonomous/homegrown outfits. There are many lessons to be learned from that history, of how a democratic society should, and should not, respond to violent domestic threats, and really none of them are part of the discussion in the U.S. Easier to just throw all the bad guys into one pot and pretend that we can fight them overseas.

The TdF is obviously vulnerable, but that in itself does not automatically make it a target. It might have been an easy, and obvious, target for the ETA in the past (if, but it was always in the interest of that group not to provoke the French state. Corsican separatists have gone out of their way to say they would not target the TdF.