OT: Demand Planning/Forecasting, is that your job?

[seanile]

I'm interviewing tomorrow eve for an International Forecaster & Demand Planner position at a bike company.
I've held positions that had some overlap with the job description, but I'd like to know, from someone who works in that position, what they do so maybe I can better realize how I can pitch my past exeriences as applicable ones.
So, if anyone holds that or a similar position and is willing to talk about yourself and educate me a bit, I'd reallllly appreciate it (I reallllly want to work there). Happy to do via comments or PM :)

Thanks!
Sean

[tumbler]

Just tell them that you spend a lot of time in the Paceline Classifieds to keep a pulse on what's hot and in demand (Look 585s, King cages, etc.).

Good luck with the interview!

[seanile]

Just tell them that you spend a lot of time in the Paceline Classifieds to keep a pulse on what's hot and in demand (Look 585s, King cages, etc.).

Good luck with the interview!
hah, my willingness to read about bikes on my spare time is probably something that'll help my case id say.

[bewheels]

Hmmm - I hope the person you are interviewing with is not a member of the forum...

[tmf]

I don't know if this will help, but I'll share what I know. I have quite a bit of forecasting experience, but not with manufacturing or sales-type demand. I was an engineer for FedEx Express for many years, so I was involved with forecasting and planning of daily package volumes. I found that it's best to use several different techniques to develop the best plans. Working at the Indianapolis hub, I was planning volumes of around 400K-600K packages per day with an expected accuracy of +/- 3%.

Some of the techniques I used are:

Volume plan from corporate Operations Research dept. This was a starting point. Their plan was based on a lot of "inside" info, but was usually off by a significant margin. By tracking their plan to the resulting actual, I determined how much I needed to adjust their plan to be useable (say a -12% adjustment).

Historical performance. I would look at the last two years to see what happened and what the trends were for a given week or time period. This is especially useful for plans around holidays or other calendar-related periods (summer, winter, back-to-school, new iphone releases, etc.).

Recent history. I would look at the past 8-12 weeks to see the current trends. Are volumes trending up, down or flat? In the FedEx volume planning world, day-of-week makes a huge difference. Mondays are similar, Tuesdays are similar, etc. Everything you can do to analyze and extract information from past experience should be useful in forecasting.

Benchmarking and competitor analysis. Look at what the competition is doing and has been doing.

Miscellaneous. Basically run everything you see, read and hear through the filter of how it might impact your forecast and planning. (the Paceline!)

Track forecasting accuracy and take notes. I would do my best to keep some notes related to why I made certain decisions or weighed more heavily on one source than another.

The bottom line is that forecasting is a mix of art and science. I used 2-3 different methods to develop a plan, and then some analysis and gut-checking to make decisions from those.

I don't know if any of that will be useful to you. I hope the interview goes well!!

[seanile]

wonderful stuff

that's actually extremely helpful, and extremely applicable to the role imo. thanks a ton for your input.
i like the idea of short term trends (seeing if the past few weeks have been trending consistently higher or lower than historical data), wouldn't have thought of that as an analysis method.
good call on the taking notes piece too. nothing's worse than looking back at a decision you made, and know you made for good reason, and not remembering the reason.

thanks a lot for the info and luck!

[wallymann]

...forecasting in the bike industry would involve *alot* of art and experience...and maybe a little science. there is no magical forecasting package that will make forecasting easy or accurate unless you're moving alot of volume (i.e., dept-store bikes).

[seanile]

^i hear ya. volume and product variety certainly matters, but i'd think that if you can be successful with the art end of it, and then find an underlying science/pattern/predictability (and know how that science works), then you're on a good path.

[p nut]

Hmmm - I hope the person you are interviewing with is not a member of the forum...

Wouldn't that be a "plus" in this scenario?

[KJMUNC]

I tend to do a lot of this for clients and have done it in various industries...just never for a bike company.

I'd also suggest mentioning the need to incorporate macro-factors into any demand forecasting: things like retail trends, consumer spending trends, population growth, weather, etc. All affect consumer demand, which ultimately is the pull that generates demand signals from the LBS and then distributor level back to the OEM.

Good luck!

[seanile]

I tend to do a lot of this for clients and have done it in various industries...just never for a bike company.

I'd also suggest mentioning the need to incorporate macro-factors into any demand forecasting: things like retail trends, consumer spending trends, population growth, weather, etc. All affect consumer demand, which ultimately is the pull that generates demand signals from the LBS and then distributor level back to the OEM.

Good luck!great points, macro conditions are just as important. the one piece i read about recently that really got me thinking is material accessibility, apparently the carbon used on the us-made bikes is different than that used in china due to NATO-only trade restrictions, etc. it's considered to have potential for military applications.

and thanks!

[KJMUNC]

great points, macro conditions are just as important. the one piece i read about recently that really got me thinking is material accessibility, apparently the carbon used on the us-made bikes is different than that used in china due to NATO-only trade restrictions, etc. it's considered to have potential for military applications.

and thanks!

Interaction with logistics is a huge part of any international/cross-border planning. I'd expect any major company will have logistics specialists, but a demand planner has to take into account transit times, material availability, customs clearance, etc, as all will impact their ability to meet demand.

[boconnor811]

Interaction with logistics is a huge part of any international/cross-border planning. I'd expect any major company will have logistics specialists, but a demand planner has to take into account transit times, material availability, customs clearance, etc, as all will impact their ability to meet demand.

Demand Planning is my profession, generally demand planning is comprised of forecasting how many and when your customer needs your product, it generally doesn't consider constraints. In my industry (automotive aftermarket) we view this in monthly buckets.

MRP - Materials Requirements Planning accounts for the other factors you've mentioned such as lead times etc. The supply planner is tasked with placing purchase orders with vendors, to ensure the product arrives to satisfy expected demand.

Our forecasting process is based on building consensus monthly. We start the month with demand data from the previous 36 months down to the sku level, a batch forecasting process runs and our software picks what it feels is the best forecast for a given demand pattern. We generally work the next 10 days or so to review and refine the systematic forecast output.

After this the demand planning team aggregates the part level data to groups of products, for specific major customer accounts to review with the account manager (sales). An example would be all Cannondale CAADX sold to REI. In these meetings we leverage outside data; customer POS, customer inventory, customer forecast, in addition to our own historical demand data to reach consensus for all major customers.

Next round of consensus is with marketing, data is rolled up again to eliminate specific account information (CAADX to all customers), and we review forecasts for groups of products for all customers with product managers (marketing).

After consensus is reached the forecast is released, MRP runs to calculate safety stocks, and future requirements. Supply planners takeover and order, expedite, defer orders as necessary.

If the process ends here this is basically an unconstrained forecast, ie there are no limitations to supply from a plant or vendor. In more advanced supply chains the next step would be a Sales and Operations Planning meeting, in which the goal is to align the sales, forecast/supply, and plant capacity plans. Sales / marketing, supply / demand planning, and the plant have competing goals, S&OP is designed to address this.

For a bike company and demand planning specifically some buzzwords to consider would be; seasonality - it's likely bike sales are highest at certain points of the year spring / summer, spike in demand for the holidays. I'd also expect the product lifecycle to be quite short, generally manufacturers release a new version of every bike annually so taking this into account will be critical. Lastly market trends; ie long term shift from mtb popularity to hybrids bikes and things of that nature.

Also mention your considering pursuing a Supply Chain Certification from
APICS - The Association for Operations Management (most widely recognized Supply Chain Certification)
or
IBF - Institute of Business Forecasting (another supply chain certification, most closely tied to demand planning)

[seanile]

Wow, thats fantastic. Thank you so so much. You posted while i was on the phone interviewing, so hopefully ill get a callback for an in person one were i can use it! Will know by tuesday.
For those wondering, i think i did pretty well, but it's very difficult to tell with phone interviews.

But seriously, thank you ALL for the incredible info youve given me, it's really encouraging to have so many strangers willing to give some good asvice and good vibes just because. Thank you.

[sg8357]

I just checked with Delphi Forecasting, this is what they said about you getting the job.

[seanile]

I just checked with Delphi Forecasting, this is what they said about you getting the job.

ha! :hello: i sure hope so. thanks for the reassurance :)

[boconnor811]

So... Did you get a call back?

If you have any specific questions to prepare for a second interview, feel free to PM me and we can exchange contact info. I have multiple APICS and IBF certifications, and try to stay up on current Supply Chain topics.

[seanile]

was supposed to hear back by today, but alas, i have not. they may have had veterans day off.
i think i did pretty well on the interview so i'd be surprised if they said no, but then again, it's really hard to gauge a phone interview.

thanks for the offer, if i get a call i'll definitely hit you up for that.

[likebikes]

no news is :banana: news?

[seanile]

negative. didn't get the spot, and wasn't sure it'd be worth a thread-bump to say, "i didn't get hired!"
they wanted to look into local candidates with more experience. i recently talked more with the in-house recruiter, they're going to look into other positions that might fit my skill-set better. after telling them more about non-work things i've done, they think i'd be a good project manager (which i'd like), but there aren't any openings for that role right now. so they asked me to be patient and we'll see what comes up. tis a bummer, but i'm glad the dialogue with them is still alive.

and thanks for taking an interest/checking in, i appreciate it. support of any type is always nice to have.

[seanile]

for the folks who wanted to know how things were going..i kept talking with the hr people and they decided they should have me up for some exploratory interviews with various people. so on the 26th i'll be meeting and talking with a: product manger, inside sales manager, director of components and aftermarket, director of program management, and director of product development. it's safe to say im beyond nervous and ridiculously excited.
:eek::hello::help: