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View Full Version : What causes a bicycle tipping point?


ols
03-15-2006, 09:53 AM
And no I don't mean falling over at a stoplight ;) ... In the book "The Tipping Point" by Malcolm Gladwell, he presents his thoughts on "how little things can make a big difference" in an idea, trend or social behavior crossing some threshold, tipping and then spreading like gangbusters. So, in the way that person being able to start an epidemic, a small push or chain of events can also cause a product (or idea) to take off. In terms of reasons for trends taking off, he believes there are mavens who are respected for their opinions and they believe in certain ideas or products and recommend to others (e.g., the guy at Rivendell, dbrk and the jerk plus a small group of other posters on this forum could be in this group. Anyone who would influence you either positively or negatively in terms of action to buy or not), there are groups of influencers that people watch for the latest "new new thing" whether they admit it or not (professional cyclists and what they are riding this year would be an example), there are connectors who know lots of people and spread info about what is taking off as the new thing (the forum itself is probably taking on this role), and so on.

In cycling, certain brands or frame models or components seem to have taken off (meaning a lot of us want them all of a sudden - Serotta has already arrived, but Kirk and Vanilla and Pegoretti seem to have taken off more recently. Certain saddles seem to take off each year. Carbon parts seem to be a trend too) while others do not seem to take off so fast (or not at all - fill in your own examples) and still others are on the cusp of taking off and time will tell if they do or not (will the Meivici take off and what would it take for it to do so? Which smaller frame builders are the next new frame to have?)

Anyway, what do you think makes some cycling brands or frames or components take off while others do not? Are you more influenced by the cycling opinions of certain individuals, or what professionals ride, or the newest components that you see on the bike rack at your local coffee stop or something else?

Samster
03-15-2006, 10:24 AM
does 'ols' stand for 'ordinary least squares'?

christian
03-15-2006, 01:12 PM
I'm more interested in what it will take to approach the cycling tipping point. I think a national political leader commuting to work in a suit and tie would do it.

- Christian

Kevan
03-15-2006, 01:29 PM
I think a lot of folk caught the Postie/Armstrong wave. Not sure whether we're about to beach or if current fuel prices will spur others to spin as means for economic survival. As for distracting from other interests, it is fun to see while riding past the local golf course, guys stepping back from the ball on the green and watch us knuckleheads blow past.

Within the culture, yeah, the gurus and hardcore cyclists, with sufficient coin, jump in and certainly pump the ipo surge.