Predictions - 2014 World road race championship

[weisan]

Now that we have the Vueta out of the way, who do you fancy to win in the worlds RR?

I will put in my vote first...

The aussie Simon Gerrans, one of the smartest riders in the peloton. :hello:

[ceolwulf]

Gerrans is not a bad call.

I will support Cancellara :cool:

[rustychisel]

hmmm, good call weisan. How about Michael Matthews, although I assume Gerrans is to be the nominated one?

[gianni]

Cancellara no way! One cannot win worlds by trying to ride the peloton off your wheel -- hence cuddles perfect attack when Fabian was best. He needs a reboot tactically. I like an unknown/unmarked opportunist.

[pinoymamba]

https://31.media.tumblr.com/3eb686d9f14da7dbb3e29b912f48674b/tumblr_mka132ZS1G1rqrqs1o1_400.gif

fan boy ;)

[ultraman6970]

The race favs strong people like cancellara but the problem is that there are other guys faster than he is (and luckier too). No wonder contador dont want to race that one, is basically flat, not good for him and probably after the non win from last year plus the problems with the other two geniuses in the vuelta I wouldn't like to work for them at all either.

Ideal for Freire, but he is not racing no more. Valverde in the spanish team if they don't screw up as happened in the last 2 or 3 years. Valverde has podium like 5 times in the last 12 years, Purito like 3 more.

Boonen could give a surprise? this is not a race for pure sprinters, just pure strong people will survive.

[harlond]

If the race is not too fast, so the climb is not too hard, Degenkolb looks like a contender.

[MattTuck]

I'd think Cancellara would be a definite contender.

Sep Vanmarcke, Gerraint Thomas and Zdenek Stybar would also be my picks - if they are selected.

Edit: Kwiatkowski too.

[tiretrax]

What's Cavendish been doing lately?

[torquer]

Gerrans is not a bad call.
Having seen him race in Quebec last week, I have to agree, but with the following caveats: the Canada races were 200 kms, WC will be 255, and the Aussie team will be smaller, and not as deep in talent as Orica was for these races. And will Gerrans hold his form for another two weeks?

OTOH, besides Gerrans, the following riders finished both Canada races in the top ten: Dumoulin, Navardauskas, Van Avermart, Gasparatto, Gallopin and Mollema. (Impey, leading out Gerrans, only managed 21st place Sunday after a 4th place in QC.) That's a pretty good short list of contenders for the worlds, even leaving out Rui Costa, only 33rd in QC.

Kristoff and Gerraint Thomas, both of whom I was expecting to do better in Canada, will need to take it up a sizable notch if they are to have any hopes in Ponferrada.

I like the Degenkolb suggestion. If he wins, its a shame the Oktoberfest celebration I'm attending is the night before the race.:beer:

[1centaur]

Gerrans is the favorite:

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/cycling/world-championships-2012?ev_oc_grp_ids=1889715

Forum cred to anyone who picks 25:1 or greater odds and gets it right.

[tv_vt]

Saw Gerrans win in Montreal yesterday. He was dropped on the climbs on the last lap, but leaders didn't work together and he came back. No one close to him in the slightly uphill finish.

I don't know the exact layout of the World's course, but Gerrans is definitely in some good form right now. And he beat Cancellara at MSR a few years ago...

We'll see. He'll need a good team behind him. Valverde could be good. Sagan maybe. Not sure who Italy is bringing.

[weisan]

Gerrans + Adam Hansen + AUS Team

[1centaur]

The circuit is a long gradual gain (several k) of I think 300 meters, then down a bit, and then a shorter (maybe 2k) gain of 200 meters, followed by a fairly long downhill to the finish. 18 times. So no short steep ramps and a real chance for a classic sprinter to win if they can survive the attrition of all those long drags. Sagan and Cancellara both seem to have that capacity. Gerrans tends to do particularly well when it gets very steep near the end and then has a second breath to win a short sprint. I think neither aspect is in this course.

Valverde should be able to survive the constant drags, but I think the winner will come from a group move that gets away and stays away a lap or two from the end and that's too hard a thing to predict.

[54ny77]

Voeckler, by a tongue length.

http://ewoud.home.xs4all.nl/cycling/20120411_voeckler_face_tongue.gif

[Louis]

Voeckler, by a tongue length.

But who's tongue? :p:p:p

BBC story on tongue length (http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-magazine-monitor-29144165)

No comments please, about his GF, and how happy she is. :no:

Californian Nick Stoeberl has just taken over as holder of the world record for the longest tongue. His measures 10.1cm (about 4in) from the tip to the middle of the closed top lip. How does this compare with the average person's tongue, asks Clare Spencer.

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/77553000/jpg/_77553579_longtongue.jpg

[oldpotatoe]

Having seen him race in Quebec last week, I have to agree, but with the following caveats: the Canada races were 200 kms, WC will be 255, and the Aussie team will be smaller, and not as deep in talent as Orica was for these races. And will Gerrans hold his form for another two weeks?

OTOH, besides Gerrans, the following riders finished both Canada races in the top ten: Dumoulin, Navardauskas, Van Avermart, Gasparatto, Gallopin and Mollema. (Impey, leading out Gerrans, only managed 21st place Sunday after a 4th place in QC.) That's a pretty good short list of contenders for the worlds, even leaving out Rui Costa, only 33rd in QC.

Kristoff and Gerraint Thomas, both of whom I was expecting to do better in Canada, will need to take it up a sizable notch if they are to have any hopes in Ponferrada.

I like the Degenkolb suggestion. If he wins, its a shame the Oktoberfest celebration I'm attending is the night before the race.:beer:

The 'World Championships' have always intrigued me. No standards in terms of course, length, altitude..kinda like the hour record discussion...and a one day race, winners called 'world champ'

Also the relationships with other team members from your country, who will be on a competing team the next day..AND when you don't make the final selection on race day, not part of the lead group at the end...how it seems many just drop out.

I like Cuddles tho..great way to leave the sport as a racer.

[torquer]

Ditto on Cuddles, OP. After reading this morning's announcement of the Aussie team, I take back what I said about lack of depth. And it will be interesting to see if Evans rides for Gerrans, now that his retirement is imminent and team rivalries are no longer a consideration.

In other team news, trade-teammates Gilbert and Van Avermart should be an entertaining tag team for the Belgians.

[weisan]

I think the distance and the finish will be OK for Gerrans, after all, this is the guy who have won Milano San Remo.

[rain dogs]

I think a lot of the race is going to come down to how two of the big four animate the race, those being Spain and Italy.

After 200km, if the race really starts to rip, then it'll be tough for guys like Cance, Gerrans, Matthews, Degenkolb and Bouhanni.

This is actually not as flat as people think. Spain and Italy only have hopes to win if they really make it brutal. In that sense, it depends on the strength and composition of the teams. Valverde or Nibali could win, if their nations make it a war of attrition. Spain seems set to bring a bunch of Movistar "workers" but they need the legs too.

Spain would look good with a guy in the break, with the rest doing nothing until around km200. Then go full gas for Valverde.

If it's a little softer than that, Gerrans looks pretty damn strong.

[MattTuck]

I'm renewing my pick of Sep Vanmarcke.

[cd_davis]

If not retired, wouldn't you like to see Jens Voigt just once more for grins....

[hida yanra]

Degenkolb is out w/ sickness,
That AUS team is going to be a monster- this course is GREAT for Matthews, but he's a bit young at this point. Gerro is a 5-star favorite.
Valverde still has a good sprint, but between TdF and Vuelta (all the way to the end), is he going to be too tired?
Cancelara has been going VERY well, in quiet ways in the Vuelta- maybe a bit of technical nuance that was missing earlier in his career?
Boonen, another strong man who had a solid, quiet Vuelta. He knows how to prepare for big one-day events, could be good course for him?
Gilbert- nope, hasn't had the acceleration for way too long now.
Rui Costa- Another good course for him- small team though.
Kristoff? Haven't heard much from him recently- I expect that he'll have been training hard for this. Certainly his sort of race.

Still need to look through the roster for NL and IT, should be an interesting race.

[Uncle Jam's Army]

Kwiatkowski or Matthews. My annual Boasson Hagen touting is over.

Weird that Sagan is so off form. Seems like an ideal course for him.

[guido]

Cancelara is showing great form. In the spring he showed much improved sprint chops. I think it's his year...

[firerescuefin]

Cancelara is showing great form. In the spring he showed much improved sprint chops. I think it's his year...

x2

I believe.

[weisan]

Kwiatkowski or Matthews. My annual Boasson Hagen touting is over.

Weird that Sagan is so off form. Seems like an ideal course for him.

Uncle Jam-pal called it!
Poland rode the perfect race.

[weisan]

Any pal complains here about spoiler, I am gonna skin you alive.

[harryblack]

whoa, a few solid predictions here-- kudos!

also a solid ride by Brent Bookwalter, i'm a little unclear why Talansky and Tejay even bothered to show up... ** anyone ** can DNF, might as well let someone else use it for experience.

of course if Jens was there, he'd have won men's TT & RR, since he's such the "hard man" of the peleton.

fish/barrel time but I find it remarkable the gaggle of people who complain about lack of women's bike race $$$/coverage every TdF do just about nothing that I can see to bring attn to the women's sport in other races. not that the women's races were in the least bit interesting but the apathy is telling.

[ptourkin]

whoa, a few solid predictions here-- kudos!

also a solid ride by Brent Bookwalter, i'm a little unclear why Talansky and Tejay even bothered to show up... ** anyone ** can DNF, might as well let someone else use it for experience.

of course if Jens was there, he'd have won men's TT & RR, since he's such the "hard man" of the peleton.

fish/barrel time but I find it remarkable the gaggle of people who complain about lack of women's bike race $$$/coverage every TdF do just about nothing that I can see to bring attn to the women's sport in other races. not that the women's races were in the least bit interesting but the apathy is telling.

Wait what? Sarcasm? The sprint finish and last lap with much tactics and the world champion of the elite women wasn't "in the least bit" interesting? Did YOU watch it?

[jlwdm]

...

also a solid ride by Brent Bookwalter, i'm a little unclear why Talansky and Tejay even bothered to show up... ** anyone ** can DNF, might as well let someone else use it for experience.

....

What is the point of finishing if you are not able to contribute anymore? The worlds RR always has a lot of DNFs. Heck, Poland had a lot of DNFs. The U.S. team was not exactly there with a chance to win.

Jeff

[Uncle Jam's Army]

Where do I collect my prize? :cool:

[weisan]

Where do I collect my prize? :cool:

Please send your contact information and bank account to this address:

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[carlineng]

The 2014 Road Race champion has uploaded his race to Strava complete WITH power data!! :banana::banana::banana:

http://www.strava.com/activities/200661439/overview
http://www.strava.com/pros/michal_kwiatkowski