Can Cadel do it?

[BumbleBeeDave]

Good story on VN.com . . .

http://velonews.competitor.com/2014/05/news/evans-in-prime-position-entering-giros-decisive-second-half_328792

I gotta admit I'm pulling for him. He can be a bit prickly at times, but he seems to have integrity and grit.

BBD

[FlashUNC]

Depends on which Cadel shows up. The guy who cracked at the Tour and let Carlos Sastre slip through the opening, or the guy who won the Worlds and a Tour.

[BumbleBeeDave]

. . . touch his dog. ;)

BBD

[bigboom]

I think Cadel is pissed that BMC isn't letting him ride the Tour and he'll do everything he can to show them he can still win. So my money is on Cadel...

[laupsi]

given how the race has unfolded up to this point my money would be on Cadel too...

[Uncle Jam's Army]

No

[tiretrax]

I expect him to falter next week.

[laupsi]

I expect him to falter next week.

okay, be bold, if you don't think Cadel will make it tell who will.

[rain dogs]

It's a bit early to say. Let's see on Montecampione.

I'd say Uran looks deadly. Quintana will smoke em both on the tough climbs if he heals up.

Pozzovivo looks super strong too. He gained 30 seconds pretty easy on a nothing climb compared to what's to come.

So... I'd say no. It'll be tough to knock him off the podium with the lead he has, but honestly, next to none of that lead is due to his individual legs (TTT and crash positioning), so I don't see him gaining time, just protecting. Where will Cadel gain time?

He might win a few seconds in the first TT, but he'll lose more than that in the second.

[laupsi]

One needs a very strong team to win a grand tour.

[CunegoFan]

Evans has traditionally weakened in the last week of a GT and this Giro is backloaded with climbs. I expect him to falter, but he has always been good at limiting his losses. I give him a 25-30% chance.

[tiretrax]

okay, be bold, if you don't think Cadel will make it tell who will.

I guess you aren't aware of the No Spoiler policy. I'm routing for Quintana or Uran. It would be great to see one of them take the top step.

[oldpotatoe]

No

Yes...

[alessandro]

Depends on which Cadel shows up. The guy who cracked at the Tour and let Carlos Sastre slip through the opening, or the guy who won the Worlds and a Tour.

This Cadel will win in Trieste.
http://images.smh.com.au/2010/05/16/1453908/cadel_evans1-420x0.jpg

[firerescuefin]

Evans has traditionally weakened in the last week of a GT and this Giro is backloaded with climbs. I expect him to falter, but he has always been good at limiting his losses. I give him a 25-30% chance.

^This

[1centaur]

I think we have to see the imagined Quintana or Uran do their thing vs. the very real Cadel. We know that Cadel can be really tough, smart and hang in there (avoiding crashes along the way). Until we see the competition match our best imagination, they're just a theory.

[FastforaSlowGuy]

Lots of stages left. Cadel has historically not been a great team leader. So far he's gained time largely by luck. Wouldn't be the first to win a GT that way, but 3 weeks of luck is tough. He's riding well but I won't put my money on him till I see a dominant performance.


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[rain dogs]

I think we have to see the imagined Quintana or Uran do their thing vs. the very real Cadel. We know that Cadel can be really tough, smart and hang in there (avoiding crashes along the way). Until we see the competition match our best imagination, they're just a theory.

Why would Quintana, who was second in the Tour last year be anymore a theory than Cadel?

Sure, last year is last year, but that applies to everyone just the same.

What makes someone "imagined" and someone else "real". I don't know what that means.

[1centaur]

Then I will explain. We have seen lots of favorites not climb away from the top 10 when it really counted over the last few years. I personally have never seen a targeted Quintana or Uran go for it 3ks from the top and leave their top rank peers in the dust. I have seen attacks that were brought back or did not count for much, I have seen "there or there abouts," I have seen lots of promise and potential and plenty of reason to believe in a podium finish. I have not seen that Armstrong or Contador or Froome moment that says different level. So if they are more credible challengers than different level riders, then they are in Cadel's ballpark, and when he is on he is tough in his ballpark.

So we may imagine that Quintana or Uran will sail away in the high mountains and get minutes on Cadel, but until it happens it's just imagination and not as real as the reality of an in-form Evans.

[Keith A]

I think Cadel is pissed that BMC isn't letting him ride the Tour and he'll do everything he can to show them he can still win. So my money is on Cadel...So who is the GC guy for BMC at the TdF?

[Llewellyn]

So who is the GC guy for BMC at the TdF?

Isn't it Van Garderen?

I really hope Evans can win it and I think he has the form and attitude to do it. Giro and TdF wins would look great on an already impressive palmares.

But there's still a long way to go.

[rain dogs]

So we may imagine that Quintana or Uran will sail away in the high mountains and get minutes on Cadel, but until it happens it's just imagination and not as real as the reality of an in-form Evans.

Ok, that one way to see it. We'll find out I guess.

Consider this. Uran, Pozzovivo and Quintana don't need to get "minutes on Cadel" They need 57 seconds, 1:20 and 1:45.

Pozzovivo just got 30 seconds on a small climb in just 4km. That's sure not the Zoncolan where the time gaps are minutes.

So that means Cadel is the one who needs minutes, his lead isn't big enough to just protect for half the race and that hard of a final week. So where will he gain time? What stages are the ones where Cadel will blow away Uran, Quintana and Pozzovivo?

I don't see any.

[campy man]

Sorry, Cadel rides like Bobby Julich.

I'm sure there are plenty of examples to prove different but can't remember Evans ever taking the initiative. Following wheels on the big stages and fighting not to get dropped doesn't inspire me to go out and ride.

Evans is a classy guy but just don't enjoy his style of racing.

[rustychisel]

Sorry, Cadel rides like Bobby Julich.

I'm sure there are plenty of examples to prove different but can't remember Evans ever taking the initiative. Following wheels on the big stages and fighting not to get dropped doesn't inspire me to go out and ride.

Evans is a classy guy but just don't enjoy his style of racing.


on the other hand, if I were to explain it as "he rides like a man on the limit rather than supercharged", would that satisfy you?

[ultraman6970]

If cadel survives the 1st big climb he will win this race.

[echappist]

Sorry, Cadel rides like Bobby Julich.

I'm sure there are plenty of examples to prove different but can't remember Evans ever taking the initiative. Following wheels on the big stages and fighting not to get dropped doesn't inspire me to go out and ride.

Evans is a classy guy but just don't enjoy his style of racing.

just because you choose to remember the set of events suitable to your position, doesn't mean your position is unassailable.

-2009 WC. Yes, he sucked wheel and lucked into a win.
-2010 Fleche. That one, too. Didn't take any initiative and just happened to have won.
-2010 Giro stage in Montalcino.
-2011 Tirreno. Somehow found himself lucky enough to be at the front for a stage win and the overall.
-2011 TdF stage 4 when he somehow outsprinted Contador to the line
-2011 TdF Galibier stage. Somehow found himself on the front with 8k to go and chased down Schleck. He must have been mind controlled by someone.
-2012 Dauphine stage where he attacked the downhill and won a small group sprint.
-or for something more recent, attacked in the 2nd stage of the 2014 Giro del Trentino and won.

No one is certain if he can hold on, and that's why there's merit to this thread. You just happen to be woefully misinformed.

[Ozrider]

Cadel is nearing the end of his career, but I think he can still do it. He is tenacious and can push himself harder than most.
Quintana is his biggest threat IMO.
There are so many variables, so let's look forward to the show.


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[Llewellyn]

on the other hand, if I were to explain it as "he rides like a man on the limit rather than supercharged", would that satisfy you?

Quoted for truth.

[hida yanra]

<various fanciful race recaps>


thanks, saved me the trouble- I just used his win at worlds tot explain to some collegiate racers what it means to "sell out in an attack" two days ago.

Most people don't seem to remember that his attack actually got brought all the way back(!) except that he never stopped pedaling. Even when brought back and he and Kol. just kept riding and rode themselves off the front of the group again.
Heck, I probably would have stopped when the favorites group brought my attack back with only a few K to go- but Cadel sure didn't.

[hida yanra]

Also- the snow still isn't cleared from the roads for the big double day of Stelvio & Gavia...

decent chance it won't be and that stage may be shortened... anyone think that would change the dynamic?

[bigboom]

I still think Cadel lucked out from not crashing on stage 6, that might end up being the deciding factor if Quintana doesn't show up in the mountains. Uran crashed as well but havent seen any reports of him being in pain.

[cfox]

Sorry, Cadel rides like Bobby Julich.

I'm sure there are plenty of examples to prove different but can't remember Evans ever taking the initiative. Following wheels on the big stages and fighting not to get dropped doesn't inspire me to go out and ride.

Evans is a classy guy but just don't enjoy his style of racing.

The thread is about his ability to win a race, not how pretty it is. And of all the people to compare him to...Bobby Julich?? Isn't there a boring former cyclist who was actually successful to compare him to? Evans' palmares are Moby Dick to Julich's Green Eggs and Ham.

[CunegoFan]

The thread is about his ability to win a race, not how pretty it is. And of all the people to compare him to...Bobby Julich?? Isn't there a boring former cyclist who was actually successful to compare him to? Evans' palmares are Moby Dick to Julich's Green Eggs and Ham.

Levi Leecheimer?

[laupsi]

the TT tomorrow could be decisive. if Cadel hits it right he could add real time against the climbing specialists.

[echappist]

thanks, saved me the trouble- I just used his win at worlds tot explain to some collegiate racers what it means to "sell out in an attack" two days ago.

Most people don't seem to remember that his attack actually got brought all the way back(!) except that he never stopped pedaling. Even when brought back and he and Kol. just kept riding and rode themselves off the front of the group again.
Heck, I probably would have stopped when the favorites group brought my attack back with only a few K to go- but Cadel sure didn't.

Cancellara closed it down, but no one was willing to actually get on the wheels of the three escapees, and off they go again...

Btw, as you probably could tell, the fanciful descritions were all ironic :)

[hida yanra]

Cancellara

he did, and they were 100% brought back, the select group was literally drafting them.... but those guys kept pedaling, that's hard-man racing right there. When I get brought back, I don't typically keep pounding away at the front of the group, eh?

It takes a hard, committed racer to do that- and one that is completely invested in the attack.

[ultraman6970]

Cancellara??? He is not doing the Giro, what race are you guys talking about then?

Quintana I believe is sick but tomorrow probably cadel will put some extra time to the climbers and just wait for the best in the climbs, if he holds the 1st climbing day that will demoralize everybody.

[Hawker]

Any live coverage anywhere?

[Keith A]

Try this...
http://www.steephill.tv/giro-d-italia/

[tiretrax]

Cancellara??? He is not doing the Giro, what race are you guys talking about then?



World Championship that he won - 2011?

[Hawker]

Try this...
http://www.steephill.tv/giro-d-italia/

Thanks.

[Keith A]

the TT tomorrow could be decisive. if Cadel hits it right he could add real time against the climbing specialists.It was decisive, but not in the way that was expected.

[FastforaSlowGuy]

The number of contenders for the top spot on the podium just shrank considerably. That was a helluva ride from Uran, and a solid job from Cadel to bring back time. From the early time checks, it looked like he could have lost a lot more.

[rain dogs]

Cadel is in tough now (or legitimately out of it). This was the TT he was supposed to do well in, and he DID do well. Serious props to him for keeping the bike upright (twice) while really pushing. But he needed to gain serious time, as I said.. "he might win a few seconds" and he did on a few... but he lost too much to Rigo.

Problem is, Uran killed him and he lost tons of time on the climb portion, not a good indicator for the TT he was expected to do poorly in (the uphill TT to come) where Majka, Uran, Pozzovivo and Quintana will smoke him.

So... there's that. He's out of contention for the win now (unless Uran crashes out/mechanical). He's gonna be hard pressed to hold of Pozzovivo.

Again, he deserves props for fighting, but Uran just knocked him to the mat.

He'll finish 4th I bet.

[BumbleBeeDave]

. . . this is all MY fault for starting this thread!

Cadel, forgive me!

BBD

[echappist]

Cadel is in tough now (or legitimately out of it). This was the TT he was supposed to do well in, and he DID do well. Serious props to him for keeping the bike upright (twice) while really pushing. But he needed to gain serious time, as I said.. "he might win a few seconds" and he did on a few... but he lost too much to Rigo.

Problem is, Uran killed him and he lost tons of time on the climb portion, not a good indicator for the TT he was expected to do poorly in (the uphill TT to come) where Majka, Uran, Pozzovivo and Quintana will smoke him.

So... there's that. He's out of contention for the win now (unless Uran crashes out/mechanical). He's gonna be hard pressed to hold of Pozzovivo.

Again, he deserves props for fighting, but Uran just knocked him to the mat.

He'll finish 4th I bet.

don't be so sure. It seems that Evans may have traded time trialing for better climbing.

Quintana is still recovering from a cold/allergy
Pozzovivo hasn't shown he can actually out climb Evans (see Giro del Trentino)
Majka may or may not overtake Evans

[gianni]

Cadel is in tough now (or legitimately out of it). This was the TT he was supposed to do well in, and he DID do well. Serious props to him for keeping the bike upright (twice) while really pushing. But he needed to gain serious time, as I said.. "he might win a few seconds" and he did on a few... but he lost too much to Rigo.

Problem is, Uran killed him and he lost tons of time on the climb portion, not a good indicator for the TT he was expected to do poorly in (the uphill TT to come) where Majka, Uran, Pozzovivo and Quintana will smoke him.

So... there's that. He's out of contention for the win now (unless Uran crashes out/mechanical). He's gonna be hard pressed to hold of Pozzovivo.

Again, he deserves props for fighting, but Uran just knocked him to the mat.

He'll finish 4th I bet.

Well said.

Cuddles e finito dio cane!

It's going to be a great final week.

[tiretrax]

okay, be bold, if you don't think Cadel will make it tell who will.

Called it!

Sorry, BBD.

[laupsi]

It was decisive, but not in the way that was expected.

agreed!

[alessandro]

Well said.

Cuddles e finito dio cane!

It's going to be a great final week.

Ciao, gianni. Ma che cosa significa "Cuddles is finished god dog?"