Liege-Bastogne-Liege Pick'em & Discussion (SPOILERS)

[MattTuck]

http://www.cyclingfans.net/2014/images/2014-liege-bastogne-liege-100-years-poster-affiche.png

Cycling News Video on Top 10 Contenders (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-8DWPphpSI)

[skijoring]

Never forget. :banana:

[gearguywb]

Gilbert or Martin?

[alessandro]

What's the over/under on the number of pandas we'll see on Sunday?

1
2-5
>5


http://24.media.tumblr.com/a04f5efa4bc9dbc992622f27929c4b30/tumblr_mlnn5oxvjX1qbw072o1_400.gif

[MattTuck]

I'm going to pick Kiatkowski I think. But I think Tom Jelte Slagter's name is more fun to say.

[phcollard]

My vote to Philippe :)

PS : What's that? 4 bolt chainrings?

[greenrositti]

Another vote for Gilbert.

Anybody know if this will be broadcast in the US, either on TV or streaming internet? I was unable to see PR in English thanks (presumably) to Comcast in Boston.

[yoshirider]

Joaquim Rodriguez! I know he's had some bad crashes lately, but don't count him out.

[enr1co]

I'll put virtual $ on a Dan Martin repeat, 2 pandas and Gilbert in the #2 slot.

[RonW87]

Two on the trot for Valverde?

[El Chaba]

Valverde...First because I am a fan, second because he is riding like a motorcycle right now....

[Uncle Jam's Army]

Martin. He was flying up the Huy on Wednesday.

[jpw]

Two on the trot for Valverde?

i hope not. drugster. i'd block him out on the hill if it looked like he might win.

[Waldo]

i hope not. drugster. i'd block him out on the hill if it looked like he might win.

Agree. Anybody but the green turdlet.

[ultraman6970]

Valverde... Gilbert... Rodriguez... plus Abandy Schleck not finishing this one at all.

ps: forgot this, anybody saw how nice evans is climbing lately?? He actually might have a chance at the Giro...

[regularguy412]

Rui Costa, Purito, Valverde. In any order on the podium. Dark horse: Nibali.

Mike in AR:beer:

[ultraman6970]

Just noticed the sub 23 road world champion will be in the race, you can't discount this kid at all.

[F150]

Time listed as TBD

[kramnnim]

Poor Dan Martin...ow.

[jpw]

Poor Dan Martin...ow.

what happened there? it seemed an unnatural fall.

was he just too fast, or did i see a coating of something in that corner (brownish sand?) from the overhead replay?

[jlwdm]

Too bad for Martin, but I don't think he had any chance of winning.

Jeff

[MattTuck]

video of the crash (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zL_1de_2Pq4)

My pick made the podium. :banana:


That has got to be devastating for Martin though. Defending champion, built most of your season around one race, in the top 2 through the last corner and your front tire washes out. Didn't even have a chance to defend his title with his legs. I'll go ahead and pick him for next year right now. He's probably already circled 2015 LBL in big red marker on his calendar.

[thegunner]

The replay shows he was pedal down on the inside... This might've been his own doing.

[regularguy412]

The replay shows he was pedal down on the inside... This might've been his own doing.

Looks kinda like he got back on the gas too soon before he had gotten the bike vertical enough.

Kinda reminded me of Denis Menchov on one of the climbs in the TdF a couple years ago. It had been raining. He was in the select group and was coming thru a curve going UP the mountain. He was just the slightest bit heeled over and put the power down. Lost the back end big-time and crashed at about 14 mph.

Mike in AR:beer:

[pdmtong]

The replay shows he was pedal down on the inside... This might've been his own doing.

i'm not seeing that...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXYGPVw3JYk

[kramnnim]

i'm not seeing that...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXYGPVw3JYk

Wow, the guy behind the camera was in the perfect place. Poor sunglasses...

[thegunner]

http://weightweenies.starbike.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=75179&start=23955#p1064214

This shows it a bit better (its definitely close)

[jpw]

Looks kinda like he got back on the gas too soon before he had gotten the bike vertical enough.

Kinda reminded me of Denis Menchov on one of the climbs in the TdF a couple years ago. It had been raining. He was in the select group and was coming thru a curve going UP the mountain. He was just the slightest bit heeled over and put the power down. Lost the back end big-time and crashed at about 14 mph.

Mike in AR:beer:

your post reminds me of menchov and his giro tt finish

[Elefantino]

.

[thwart]

This actually looks exactly like a pedal strike…

http://37.media.tumblr.com/b619afbb40b8557f90a78ebf603df52a/tumblr_n4p5w3gPZp1ropreyo1_500.gif

[nooneline]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zL_1de_2Pq4

You can slow the video down to .25 speed and see a few things:
1. He enters the corner from the inside - meaning he's got to give a good lean and a sharp turn to make the corner.
2. His inside/left pedal is at 6 o'clock when he starts to lose it.
3. He starts to lose it by having the rear wheel slide out.

That's consistent with a pedal strike.

[ultraman6970]

Yeah... to me looks like he got the old rookie mistake of taking a curve too fast while pedaling, besides who in the world takes a turn with the wrong pedal down anyways?

[MattTuck]

Seems likely it was a pedal strike... based on the zapruder film replay.

Way to finish out the classics season :banana:


PS. Are the garmin riders using the Vector pedals? Seems they should have stuck with the speedplay format.

[nooneline]

Yeah... to me looks like he got the old rookie mistake of taking a curve too fast while pedaling, besides who in the world takes a turn with the wrong pedal down anyways?

Sometimes brain don't work so good after 6.5 hours of racing. #duh

[ultraman6970]

Well... thats the reason why you train for zillions of hours, you get to pro and at that point you do the things w/o even thinking. Duh!

[ptourkin]

Word from the scene is that he slipped on one of the promotional ballpoint pens that were tossed to the crowd from a vehicle about 10 minutes before the leaders got up there.

[MattTuck]

It is possible. This is a pic near the accident, you can see a ballpoint pen behind him. If there were pens all over the road, shame on the race organizers. If it was just that one pen, then it clearly didn't cause the crash as he's already passed it.

The pedal does look pretty low.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BmUHOV5IgAAqHuu.jpg

[wooly]

I love the speculation - what's everyone's take on whether Martin would have made it to the line to win if this didn't happen or whether he would've been overtaken by Valverde, Gerrans and group?

PS - if it was a pen that would SUCK.

[alessandro]

Wooly, we'll never know. But look at Cosmo's analysis on his HTRWW:
http://cyclocosm.com/2014/04/how-the-race-was-won-liege-bastogne-liege-2014/
You sort of get an idea from about 2:47 on.;) Martin attacks at about 3:20, and crashes in the corner at 3:52. At that point, Valv, Gerrans, and Kwiatkowski are about 3 seconds behind him, and Cosmo notes how Kwiatkowski had to swing wide to go around the fallen Martin, and as a result couldn't hold on to Gerrans' wheel when the Aussie starts his surge.

Could Martin have held them off with a 3-4 second advantage at the last corner? It's about 250 meters to the line, and Gerrans looked pretty fast... we'll never know.

[MattTuck]

Well, Simon Gerrans now has 2 monument wins since 2012. Peter Sagan has zero. :beer:

[wooly]

Wooly, we'll never know. But look at Cosmo's analysis on his HTRWW:
http://cyclocosm.com/2014/04/how-the-race-was-won-liege-bastogne-liege-2014/
You sort of get an idea from about 2:47 on.;) Martin attacks at about 3:20, and crashes in the corner at 3:52. At that point, Valv, Gerrans, and Kwiatkowski are about 3 seconds behind him, and Cosmo notes how Kwiatkowski had to swing wide to go around the fallen Martin, and as a result couldn't hold on to Gerrans' wheel when the Aussie starts his surge.

Could Martin have held them off with a 3-4 second advantage at the last corner? It's about 250 meters to the line, and Gerrans looked pretty fast... we'll never know.

Thanks for the link. I wasn't aware of the site - nice recap.

[jlwdm]

I love the speculation - what's everyone's take on whether Martin would have made it to the line to win if this didn't happen or whether he would've been overtaken by Valverde, Gerrans and group?

PS - if it was a pen that would SUCK.

I don't think there was any chance he was going to win. The chasers were coming up too fast. He probably knew he was likely going to be caught and took a desperate chance through the corner.

Jeff

[alessandro]

Jeff... what desperation move? Martin won last year by being calm and waiting for his moment, and he nearly pulled off the same trick this year. It's been reported that he said it wasn't a pedal strike, and that he doesn't know what happened.

[jlwdm]

Jeff... what desperation move? Martin won last year by being calm and waiting for his moment, and he nearly pulled off the same trick this year. It's been reported that he said it wasn't a pedal strike, and that he doesn't know what happened.

I was saying if it was a pedal strike it could have have been a desperation move. I have not looked at tape to see if it looked like a pedal strike - it did not matter to me as either way watching the finish the chasers were taking the race.

Jeff