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sellsworth
01-04-2006, 03:29 PM
I’m curious about your impressions on the demographics of Serotta owners. What do you think is/are the:

• average age
• median household income
• U.S. state with highest per capita ownership
• most common professions
• % male vs. female

Dekonick
01-04-2006, 03:33 PM
The only way to get valid data would be from Serotta - anything gleaned from this message board will be skewed...

William
01-04-2006, 03:37 PM
Now, I'm definitely skewed. ;)



William

sellsworth
01-04-2006, 03:42 PM
The only way to get valid data would be from Serotta - anything gleaned from this message board will be skewed...

True but I'm just as curious about the impressions on the forum as I am with the actual numbers.

Here's another one:

• % Republican vs. Democrat

manet
01-04-2006, 03:43 PM
i'm going for my ride _ when i get back i wanna see progress.

http://photos1.blogger.com/img/294/3486/1024/111-1129_IMG.1.jpg

William
01-04-2006, 03:58 PM
i'm going for my ride _ when i get back i wanna see progress.

http://photos1.blogger.com/img/294/3486/1024/111-1129_IMG.1.jpg

Link Fugazi.


William

Ginger
01-04-2006, 03:58 PM
We don't do politics here...

William
01-04-2006, 04:03 PM
We don't do politics here...

http://jovan.ru/banned/banned.gif


William

Serotta PETE
01-04-2006, 04:17 PM
What you are requesting would just be the dmographics of those who are members of the forum and are also signed on.

It would be interesting to see the break out but we have no way via the forum of determining it - from what I see.

Just my view

Argos
01-04-2006, 04:44 PM
You could set up two different anonymous polls, know they may be skewded, but hope for the best and take them for what they are worth, strongly suggesting for people to partake in the poll, but not leave any comments, except for the occaisonal 'bump' if it starts to fade away.

No comments means no long battling thread, just numbers.

We all promise, ahead of the poll, not to be baited in by some flame-thrower, and then if a hot posting is listed (Hot-incindiary, not Hot-Supermodel) we ignore it.

I'd play along.

Argos
01-04-2006, 04:48 PM
two polls, one age, one political. then of course as many others as you want, so long as everyone agrees to no baiting.

Tree Hugger
Progressive Liberal
Moderate Liberal
Moderate
Moderate conservative
Conservative
ID Fundamentalist

and

under 5
5-20
21-25
26-30
etc.....

Lifelover
01-04-2006, 05:03 PM
• average age 53.8


• median household income 75K

• U.S. state with highest per capita ownership California

• most common professions college educated professionals

• % male vs. female 90% male 5% Female 5% Other (Sandy)

Sandy
01-04-2006, 05:50 PM
That gave me a really great laugh. Am I laughing at what you wrote, myself, or both. :)



Sandy

Serotta PETE
01-04-2006, 06:03 PM
That gave me a really great laugh. Am I laughing at what you wrote, myself, or both. :)



Sandy

You are the "mean" of the age group. I am the standard deviation. :banana: :banana:

Argos
01-04-2006, 06:34 PM
so much for the whole anonymity thing.. :rolleyes:

Kevin
01-04-2006, 06:35 PM
I’m curious about your impressions on the demographics of Serotta owners. What do you think is/are the:

• average age
• median household income
• U.S. state with highest per capita ownership
• most common professions
• % male vs. female

I am guessing

- 40 yrs.
- $500K
- Maryland
- Lawyers
- 90% male, 10% female

Sandy
01-04-2006, 06:52 PM
Are you kidding about the $500K? If not, I would find that very hard to believe.




Sandy

Serotta PETE
01-04-2006, 07:06 PM
[QUOTE=Sandy]Are you kidding about the $500K? If not, I would find that very hard to believe.




Sandy[/QUOTE

Can I join!!!!

YO!!!
01-04-2006, 07:07 PM
I’m curious about your impressions on the demographics of Serotta owners. What do you think is/are the:

• average age

not old enough to own a red frame


• median household income

not enuf to buy a real frame


• U.S. state with highest per capita ownership

forget about it


• most common professions

couch potatoes


• % male vs. female

boofum !!!

What do you expect from an internet poll...the truth????

djg
01-04-2006, 09:16 PM
Are you kidding about the $500K? If not, I would find that very hard to believe.

Sandy

Of course there are SOME owners who do not even make a quarter of a million dollars per year, at least not since the market tumbled--some have inherited their bicycles from better relatives, of course; some are a bit tattered but, being well brought up, will gamely stretch the meager incomes provided by charitable organizations or the Senate to cover the cost of a respectable ride; and some, although we do not like to think it, acquire "pre-owned" bikes. Still, one must answer the question asked: This is not about individual income but HOUSEHOLD income and it is not about quarterly income but annual income. 500K? Clinchers it is then, I suppose, and we'll have to mount them ourselves.

And now I'm thinkin' our wine suggestions were really pathetic.

Sandy
01-04-2006, 09:32 PM
I think that that MOST of Serotta owners don't make $250,000 per year, and MOST certainly don't have household income of twice that. I am older than most here, but when I started teaching high school math a zillion years ago, I was making $4800 per year. Certainly, salaries have increased dramatically, possibly at an inordinate rate over recent years, and certainly there are some very wealthy Serotta owners, but I just don't believe $500,000. Maybe, I am out of touch with the reality of today.

There are many Serotta owners and/or posters whose household incomes don't approach $500,000 per year. Mine certainly doesn't. A lot of Serotta owners have bought used Serottas or "cheaper" Serottas. We are talking income, not net worth.

$500,000 seems like a staggering amount for an average household income.


Staggered Surprised Serotta Sandy

ergott
01-04-2006, 09:36 PM
I am guessing

- 40 yrs.
- $500K
- Maryland
- Lawyers
- 90% male, 10% female


If I buy a Serotta will I make 500K?

Grant McLean
01-04-2006, 09:37 PM
If I buy a Serotta will I make 500K?


I'll take two.


-gee

shaq-d
01-04-2006, 09:40 PM
it's about wealth, what you own... not about income...
anyway i'm a super gazillionaire. in my spare time i tawdle with the "people" and have conversations and "cycle"...

sd

Ahneida Ride
01-04-2006, 10:03 PM
They ain't dollars. Dem are Federal Reserve Notes.

Unredeemable, non-backed shopping coupons issue by a PRIVATE central Bank. :eek:

Louis
01-04-2006, 10:09 PM
I am guessing

- 40 yrs.
- $500K
- Maryland
- Lawyers
- 90% male, 10% female

If Ben finds out about this I think we can expect some price hikes in the future.

Sandy
01-04-2006, 11:32 PM
I'll take two.


-gee

I've got two and it didn't work for me. I'll take 4. :)



Sandy

Sandy
01-04-2006, 11:35 PM
If Ben finds out about this I think we can expect some price hikes in the future.

Think again. Ben will sell his business, keep a Serotta or two, and get an easy job so that he and his wife will bring in the real big bucks! :)


Sandy

djg
01-04-2006, 11:39 PM
[QUOTE=Sandy

There are many Serotta owners and/or posters whose household incomes don't approach $500,000 per year. Mine certainly doesn't. A lot of Serotta owners have bought used Serottas or "cheaper" Serottas. We are talking income, not net worth.

$500,000 seems like a staggering amount for an average household income.

Staggered Surprised Serotta Sandy[/QUOTE]

Er ... maybe just a joke, yes? A joke with some staying power, it seems, but still just a joke. These are relatively expensive bikes, but they're just bikes.

Sandy
01-04-2006, 11:42 PM
If I buy a Serotta will I make 500K?

No, but you will be poorer. :)


Sandy

cycleman_21
01-05-2006, 06:23 AM
There is a huge difference between wealth and rich. I perhaps will never be wealthy but I am one of the richest men alive. :) (see avitar) I know most agree.
Live well.

Ron C

Kevin
01-05-2006, 07:15 AM
I answered the question as though it was looking for the "average" as opposed to the "median" income. There is a huge difference between "average" and "median". Median is "typical". While the "median" household income may be less than $500K per year. I believe that the "average" household income is probably close to $500K.

"Average" can be skewed by high income individuals. For example, Robin Williams rides a Serotta and his household earns about $40 mil per year. It would take 100 households earning $100K per year to bring the average down to $500K. Conan O'Brien is another Serotta owner and his household income is $8 mil per year. It would take another 20 households earning $100K per year to bring the average household income down to $500K per year. Louis Bacon is another Serotta owner. For those of you who don't know Louis, he is a foreign currency trader who owns a private island off the coast of Long Island, and according to Forbes is the 346th richest individual in the world. The Wall Street Journal reports that he makes in the area of $150 mil per year. I can tell you from personal experience that many of Louis' friends, who I am sure are doing quite well, are very good cyclists, and also ride Serottas. Regardless, it would take 375 households earning $100K per year just to offset Louis, much less his friends.

With just these three households, it would take nearly 500 households earning $100K per year to bring the average down to $500K. We would still need to offset John Kerry and the Heinz Family ketchup money. I am also sure that there are several high income Serotta owners who we do not know. Perhaps Bill Gates or Warren Buffet. In addition, while I do not want to "out" anybody, there are several seven figure income earners on this forum that would need to be offset.

So while the median income may be less than $500K, I think that we may find that the average income is close to $500K. With that said, you can all start flaming away.

Kevin

flydhest
01-05-2006, 07:56 AM
Kevin's right

dirtdigger88
01-05-2006, 08:02 AM
d@mn math- it gets you everytime :crap:

Jason

Marco
01-05-2006, 08:09 AM
Fly:

Is there an abstract for a journal article hidden in this discussion somewhere for the journal of Advances in Economic Analysis and Policy?

Argos
01-05-2006, 08:16 AM
I guess that makes sense. Not even "I guess", it does make sense.

As well, though, it would take less familys if they were average joe's. Some family's make significantly less then 100k/year. I know/hope that is no shock.

Either way, it's good to know I'm offseting the rich, balancing things, that is. It would feel better, however if the balanced it out. And in an effort to help achieve balance anyone making way too much money can PM me. I will help you balance it out, as well as pay taxes (with a smile) on any omney you need to get rid of. :D

Bud
01-05-2006, 08:35 AM
Nice explanation of average vs. median from Kevin. I agree that the avg Serotta owners household income may be much higher than the median- the right skew of the distribution is guaranteed, as in the distribution of U.S. household incomes.

That said, I am certainly doing my part to bring the median household income down!

Oh yea- I forget who mentioned it, but someone alluded to the fact that most internet polls are junk. This is not so. The web provides a decent polling mechanism provided that you understand the population that you are polling. Of course, you wouldn't expect the web to give you a representative sample of the world population, but just by using the web for polling you already know some demographics of your respondents. It just depends on your measurement goals- choose the right tool for the type of measurement you want to accomplish.

Sandy
01-05-2006, 08:40 AM
I answered the question as though it was looking for the "average" as opposed to the "median" income. There is a huge difference between "average" and "median". Median is "typical". While the "median" household income may be less than $500K per year. I believe that the "average" household income is probably close to $500K.

"Average" can be skewed by high income individuals. For example, Robin Williams rides a Serotta and his household earns about $40 mil per year. It would take 100 households earning $100K per year to bring the average down to $500K. Conan O'Brien is another Serotta owner and his household income is $8 mil per year. It would take another 20 households earning $100K per year to bring the average household income down to $500K per year. Louis Bacon is another Serotta owner. For those of you who don't know Louis, he is a foreign currency trader who owns a private island off the coast of Long Island, and according to Forbes is the 346th richest individual in the world. The Wall Street Journal reports that he makes in the area of $150 mil per year. I can tell you from personal experience that many of Louis' friends, who I am sure are doing quite well, are very good cyclists, and also ride Serottas. Regardless, it would take 375 households earning $100K per year just to offset Louis, much less his friends.

With just these three households, it would take nearly 500 households earning $100K per year to bring the average down to $500K. We would still need to offset John Kerry and the Heinz Family ketchup money. I am also sure that there are several high income Serotta owners who we do not know. Perhaps Bill Gates or Warren Buffet. In addition, while I do not want to "out" anybody, there are several seven figure income earners on this forum that would need to be offset.

So while the median income may be less than $500K, I think that we may find that the average income is close to $500K. With that said, you can all start flaming away.

Kevin

Excellent analysis. When I questioned the $500,000 figure, I realized that some wealthier individuals, who have very large household incomes, would certainly have to be offset by many of those who have a much lower household income. Perhaps I didn't think of how many really wealthy individuals, WITH very large household incomes, exist that own Serottas. Certainly an $8,000,000 income is easily offset by most Serotta owners. Louis Bacon is a genuine exception, with such an extraordinary income. The question is if there are enough of the lower household income Serotta owners to offset the fewer really larger household income Serotta owner.

With all repect to Flydhest and his knowledge, I don't think we can possibly answer that without more pertinent information which we will never know.

Most importantly, it really doesn't matter one way or another.


Sandy

Korn Julio
01-05-2006, 08:45 AM
I think this guy and his Mrs. alone is enough to skew the avg income of a Serotta owner to $500K. :p

Sandy
01-05-2006, 08:58 AM
It is still a function of income, not net worth.


Sometimes not worthy,


Sandy

manet
01-05-2006, 08:59 AM
.

flydhest
01-05-2006, 09:04 AM
The median household income in the US is currently somewhere around $50K All data I've seen suggest that cyclists have higher incomes than typical. Factor in that Serottas are among the most expensive bicycles and you'll skew the distribution even more. Look at urban areas versus the whole country and median income goes up even more (I think in the DC area it is something like $80K). Now, add in the wonderful explanation by Kevin of means versus medians and Kevin's right--clearly the precise number is wrong, but his intuition is good.

How many bikes does Serotta sell a year? It's in the low thousands, no? Given the penchant for multiple ownership and such, we're not talking about that many people and with Kevin's point about how many hundreds of $100K households it would take to offset the three he mentioned . . . well, I'm a humble civil servant, I know what lots of government workers make. A lot of them aren't helping that much with the offset when you figure they live in dual income households. Two people making $75K puts HH income at $150K, requiring even more than what Kevin pointed out was needed to balance the frighteningly high incomes of some. $75K per person is not out of line for many college-educated, 20-year experience, metropolitan area people who cycle. Indeed, it may be on the low side.

As was pointed out, income, not net worth was the question, but even assuming an implausibly low return like 1% per year, a $100 million in net wealth corresponds to $1 million in income.

Marco, of course, I'll just whip out the jargon dictionary and we're all set.

manet
01-05-2006, 09:12 AM
http://www.aperfectworld.org/cartoons/crying_clown.png

Sandy
01-05-2006, 09:29 AM
Wonderful and insightful analysis. One of your all time best. In conjunction with what Kevin said, I think that it is time for me to slowly retreat from this thread before I am battered even more by some of the wiser souls that live here.


Beaten but not out,


Sandy

flydhest
01-05-2006, 09:40 AM
not meaning to batter (unless we're talking tempura).

Sandy
01-05-2006, 11:39 AM
I am a different type of batter, and I think that I may have struck out. :)


Strike Sandy

Dekonick
01-05-2006, 11:51 AM
It is all relative -

In Howard County the median (HH) income is approx 80k.

Average income? I'll bet it is ALOT higher as there are some loaded individuals living in HoWIERD county, Maryland. MoCo is probably similar.

I guess that the data will be skewed - err skewered :rolleyes:

Factor into this regional differences in cost of living...housing...

FWIW - I have 2 Serotta's that I bought new - one back in 1993 (I think), and my Hors Cat. I have another I aquired used from TT. I did not pay too much for any of them. 1993 Colorado CR $2k with Ultegra, Hors Cat frame for $2k (BRAND NEW OLD STOCK :banana: ), and the Legend from TT (FF+ Headset) $1250.

The total is less than the cost of many new frames!

As a civil servant I don't fit into the 500k category...

Oh yeah - Education and age... typical 4 year BS, and 36 y/o.

Serpico
01-05-2006, 12:13 PM
does this guy ride a Serotta?

manet
01-05-2006, 12:16 PM
does this guy ride a Serotta?

ibis

Samster
01-05-2006, 03:24 PM
deleted... offensive content.

Kevin
01-05-2006, 06:01 PM
Wow, I am not even an economist and people are agreeing with me. It must have been that Holiday Express that I stayed in. ;)

Kevin

Marco
01-05-2006, 10:05 PM
Flydhest. You've restored my faith in government :)

"Marco, of course, I'll just whip out the jargon dictionary and we're all set"

JohnS
01-05-2006, 10:17 PM
. In addition, while I do not want to "out" anybody, there are several seven figure income earners on this forum that would need to be offset.


Kevin
E-richie and who else?!?!? :D

e-RICHIE
01-05-2006, 10:31 PM
E-richie and who else?!?!? :D


doh bro.
if i counted all the way back to 12th grade, i couldn't
come up with seven figures. none whose last names
i ever knew - that's for danm sure. imho.

djg
01-05-2006, 11:27 PM
Wonderful and insightful analysis. One of your all time best. In conjunction with what Kevin said, I think that it is time for me to slowly retreat from this thread before I am battered even more by some of the wiser souls that live here.

Beaten but not out,

Sandy

I dunno Sandy. I think you were right all along. If Kevin wants to chuck median for mean, then he's right that, with a small sample, a few outliers can substantially skew the mean. And the division looks fine. But even if we suppose he's right about the handful of big incomes he listed (and I suppose he is), we may observe that the rest of the discussion is largely speculative. And I'm inclined to think that they are speculating on the high side.

For example, Flydhest seems to me optimistic in suggesting that two 75k civil service salaries are typical of this area. They may be typical of a certain cohort of his friends--they may indeed be on the low side for, say, a couple of senior staff folks, one a Ph.D. and one an Attorney. But I'll note--as he well knows--that "typical," as in familiar or representative to me, is not the same as "typical" in the sense of median or mode. This area is a relatively rich one, but Washington has many civil servants who are sole wage earners. Washington has many civil servants at lower pay grades. And teachers, and folks in retail, etc., etc., etc. There are no counties in the area with a median income of 100k or more. Arlington is tiny, phenomenally well-located, and rapidly turning from more humble roots to the high-middle-skewed-by-some-really-rich-folks model. I'm pretty sure it's the highest local average, and it's still under 100 (although getting close). And, of course, we might notice that federal employees in most places earn less than their DC counterparts, and that most city and state employees in most parts of the country earn less than their federal counterparts might. And then there's everybody else.

Robin Williams plus Bill Gates plus Britney (please let me never see that video) doesn't ruin the curve for the nation and they may not do so for the vastly smaller sample of serotta owners. I don't know Serotta's production numbers, or how many are still on the road (or in the basement), but it's only in very recent years that the uber pricey models have become prevalent. Moreover, even a Meivici may not be sufficiently pricey to filter the population very well for rich folks--it's an expensive bike that represents the difference between a nice new toyota camry and a nice used one. Back comes the middle class, or at least the part of the middle class that's really into bikes. Add in sales of used bikes and a few hundred cycling fanatics and you are back in the just-plain-folks game.

So I have two serious answers to offer. If we are guessing, I will guess much lower than Kevin. And if we are making up numbers, I will make up the number 98.6, which just sticks out in my mind. Thus we take the temperature of the nation.

Sandy
01-05-2006, 11:51 PM
I dunno Sandy. I think you were right all along. If Kevin wants to chuck median for mean, then he's right that, with a small sample, a few outliers can substantially skew the mean. And the division looks fine. But even if we suppose he's right about the handful of big incomes he listed (and I suppose he is), we may observe that the rest of the discussion is largely speculative. And I'm inclined to think that they are speculating on the high side.

For example, Flydhest seems to me optimistic in suggesting that two 75k civil service salaries are typical of this area. They may be typical of a certain cohort of his friends--they may indeed be on the low side for, say, a couple of senior staff folks, one a Ph.D. and one an Attorney. But I'll note--as he well knows--that "typical," as in familiar or representative to me, is not the same as "typical" in the sense of median or mode. This area is a relatively rich one, but Washington has many civil servants who are sole wage earners. Washington has many civil servants at lower pay grades. And teachers, and folks in retail, etc., etc., etc. There are no counties in the area with a median income of 100k or more. Arlington is tiny, phenomenally well-located, and rapidly turning from more humble roots to the high-middle-skewed-by-some-really-rich-folks model. I'm pretty sure it's the highest local average, and it's still under 100 (although getting close). And, of course, we might notice that federal employees in most places earn less than their DC counterparts, and that most city and state employees in most parts of the country earn less than their federal counterparts might. And then there's everybody else.

Robin Williams plus Bill Gates plus Britney (please let me never see that video) doesn't ruin the curve for the nation and they may not do so for the vastly smaller sample of serotta owners. I don't know Serotta's production numbers, or how many are still on the road (or in the basement), but it's only in very recent years that the uber pricey models have become prevalent. Moreover, even a Meivici may not be sufficiently pricey to filter the population very well for rich folks--it's an expensive bike that represents the difference between a nice new toyota camry and a nice used one. Back comes the middle class, or at least the part of the middle class that's really into bikes. Add in sales of used bikes and a few hundred cycling fanatics and you are back in the just-plain-folks game.

So I have two serious answers to offer. If we are guessing, I will guess much lower than Kevin. And if we are making up numbers, I will make up the number 98.6, which just sticks out in my mind. Thus we take the temperature of the nation.

I think that you also make a great deal of sense, more on the line of my thinking. My post above was really somewhat of a joke, giving respect to another very reasonable perspective. Kevin's and Flydhest's position makes a great deal of sense but it is predicated on a reasonable number of Serotta owners whose household income is substantially well above the $500,000.

You make an excellent point relative to how we might make a judgement based upon what we personally see. My daughter went to a private school (I would have preferred public). My income at the time was most reasonable, but compared to most there, it was very low, especially compared to some.

I think that we will never really know the correct answer or be even close with any reasonable degree of confidence.

Thanks for your support.

I no longer feel battered. I feel warm and fuzzy inside. :)


Supported Sandy

flydhest
01-06-2006, 08:02 AM
djg,

Valid points, but I was pointing out that cyclists are at the top end of the income distribution and Serotta owners likely near the top of the cyclist income distribution.

A post-doc at NIH starts at (in my view a woefully pitiful sum of ) $60K. Research assistants with bachelors degrees in econ get paid close to $50K their first year out. That means that two of the fresh college grads working for me, if they were married, have a household income of about $100K if they took the low paying job of working for me.

saab2000
01-06-2006, 08:14 AM
A post-doc at NIH starts at (in my view a woefully pitiful sum of ) $60K. Research assistants with bachelors degrees in econ get paid close to $50K their first year out. That means that two of the fresh college grads working for me, if they were married, have a household income of about $100K if they took the low paying job of working for me.

Sounds like a pilot who works out there who can't afford to live out there. Washington is a strange place. When I am out there I stay with my brother and sister-in-law. Together I think they are around $175K annually. Pretty decent. They own a house in Arlington which is a nice house. Nice, but any standard, but not a mansion either. It is worth something like $600K.

The Washington DC area is a strange one IMHO. Lots of money, but lots of people sort of scraping by too. One need only look at the latest lobbying scandal to realise why there is so much money there. That is not a jab at anyone particular politically. We don't do politics here. But my brother works out there for the gov too and makes a decent salary, but not a huge one. But the number of high-zoot BMWs and Mercs lets us know that the city is awash in money anyway.

I might try to get a Serotta this year if I can swing it. I am probably below average money-wise on the demographic chart, but I don't care. First, it's just a bike. Second, I am happy for what I have, not resentful of what I don't have.

But spending a lot of time in Washington raises issues regarding money in my head. There is no industry to speak of, but the place is swimming in money. I guess gov't and contracts and lobbying is the industry out there.

MUST GET CDA....... :beer:

Marco
01-06-2006, 08:30 AM
I find DC to be very diverse economically whenever I go to visit; yes, there is big-time wealth but there are also significant pockets of average folk and poor folk too, all within a relatively small geographic area. Fly, Too Tall and others- fill in the details please.

For pure, uninteruppted wealth I find North Scottsdale (AZ) to be pretty much it. I think kids there grow up thinking that Mercedes and Lexus are the common man's car. Among other endeavors, I am involved in the financing of affordable housing and one of the policy questions that every government (local, state and federal) unit deals with is what mix of affordability they want to achieve in a given neighborhood. So, for example, you can achieve a much larger use of government subsidy by creating 100% affordable housing developments but you also potentially create concentration issues. I don't mean to get off on a discussion of affordable housing policy other than to say that in North Scottsdale I don't think that was ever a very long discussion at the city hall.

flydhest
01-06-2006, 08:54 AM
saab and Marco,
All very good points. DC is odd. Ethnic/racial lines (as in many places) can define to a large extent the income/wealth distribution. Oddly, though, SE Washington, much maligned in the media and public perception (and not entirely wrongly) has the highest percent of owner-occupied housing in the District. No point here, except that it's trivia that I find interesting.

In terms of scraping by on reasonably large incomes, though, there was a story in the Post about a family "scraping by" in which the mother was quoted lamenting her woes. It is apparently very expensive for her to pay for their kids ballet lessons, soccer teams, piano lessons, and private school. My heart failed to bleed too badly.

Housing determines a great deal of living standards in recent years for the younger set--25-35. Those lucky enough to have bought a house 5+ years ago are in good shape. Those looking to buy now . . . less so.

I think saab's observation on the number of high-end cars and such is the point, though. Even if the wealth isn't distributed all that widely, there are thousands upon thousands (which constitute a non-trivial, but not large fraction) of households that are raking it in.

Marco, your comment about average folk is interesting. Surveys suggest that between 75 and 85% of people consider themselves to be "middle class"--whatever that means. Like an average-joe's Lake Woebegone effect or something. In reality, I think it's a way of retaining a feeling of entitlement and accomplishment. "I deserve what I have since I worked hard and am just middle class." But that may be skating too close to politics.

I've forgotten why any of this matters here, but I find it an interesting topic for discussion among friends.

Lastly, djg, although I think the points you make are valid, I didn't mean to suggest that the two worker @ $75K was "typical" only that it is quite common. I've spent a bunch of time using datasets on households looking at savings, income, consumption, and other characteristics, and I know how far away from the median $150K is for a household. You're absolutely right. The point I was trying to make (both before and above) is that even if it's not that large a fraction of the population, you can still get large numbers of people in the category.

djg
01-06-2006, 09:00 AM
djg,

Valid points, but I was pointing out that cyclists are at the top end of the income distribution and Serotta owners likely near the top of the cyclist income distribution.

A post-doc at NIH starts at (in my view a woefully pitiful sum of ) $60K. Research assistants with bachelors degrees in econ get paid close to $50K their first year out. That means that two of the fresh college grads working for me, if they were married, have a household income of about $100K if they took the low paying job of working for me.

Sure--everything you say sounds entirely plausible--and senior partners at Williams and Connolly are raking it in. But research assistants on the Hill get anywhere from less to spectacularly less. And think about all the not-for-profits littering town. Thousands of 'em. We have a cousin at the bank (doin' just fine) and a cousin who, at the Peace Corps, was also doing fine, but making much less money--much, much less. Journalists? Look past the upper echelon and you find wave after wave of financial lemmings. Plenty of grad and law degrees bring in less than that post-doc salary at NIH, even in DC. How these incomes are distributed is, as you know, an empirical question and we oughtn't, as you equally know, fall into the representative fallacy if we're making conjectures about where the data might fall. There's lots of folks out there doing lots of different things.

Same for Serottas. When I got my first grown-up job in 1988 I made 23k. Adjusted for inflation it's more ... whatever exactly it is. I didn't have a Serotta, but I had a different expensive high-end bike--as it happens, a Masi. Somebody is still riding that Masi--and hence is a Masi owner--and he paid 650 bucks for it (which makes me seem like a fool of course). Depending on his other constraints, he might have swung that purchase as a kid working in a bike shop. You might be right that cyclists are weighted toward the upper end of the income distribution, and that Serotta owners (even owners of used ones) are weighted a bit higher still. But the degree to which either of these effects may be so (and to which they may persist in richer sub-populations, like the professional end of the DC area) is up for grabs. Given the dollars involved, I'm guessing that the skew isn't very heavy. I could be wrong--I could be way wrong--but that's my guess.

marle
01-06-2006, 09:24 AM
All Serottas have price points relative to other cycles. To the degree they are either higher or lower, they will match income distributions.

JohnS
01-06-2006, 09:25 AM
Well, I earn quite a bit less than the Doc's RA's and I bought a new Serotta (2001 Concours). I guess it depends on your priorities and how many "toys" you need. It's my only bike.

Grant McLean
01-06-2006, 09:40 AM
Well, I earn quite a bit less than the Doc's RA's and I bought a new Serotta (2001 Concours). I guess it depends on your priorities and how many "toys" you need. It's my only bike.

John,

Your comment got me thinking...

Maybe it's not how much money one spends on their bikes, but what % of their
income goes to bike stuff that's the interesting part? I hope everyone's
priorities are in order!

-gee

JohnS
01-06-2006, 09:44 AM
John,

Your comment got me thinking...

Maybe it's not how much money one spends on their bikes, but what % of their
income goes to bike stuff that's the interesting part? I hope everyone's
priorities are in order!

-gee
It's also how much money you spend on other things. I don't need a motorcycle (been there), or a Beemer or Audi or Benz. My Serotta is my one "luxury" item. I'm also debt free.

flydhest
01-06-2006, 09:47 AM
djg,

I hear you. I've seen a couple surveys over the years that--while I haven't gone too deeply into methodology, have no reason to think they're that far off--suggest that cyclists in the States are in the upper tail of the distribution. One of the studies contrasted the US with Europe. In Europe, cycling is much, much more of a working person's sport. This last fact according to the report I read and my own experience riding in France and Italy. These last several statements, of course, are all in the "I read somewhere" or "I have seen" category and thus get whatever weight you ascribe to what you read on the internet in chat rooms. Unless you have an opinion about me (in which case they may get less than no weight :D )

I know several reporters--LA Times, NPR, and the Post. I think I have those types (a very small contingent) factored into my thinking. For fun ('cause I'm a geek) I spend time looking at these sorts of data. PM me your e-mail address and when I have some time, I'll dig out the numbers, we'll chat on e-mail, then I'll prostrate myself publicly wailing mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa when I'm wrong. Well, either that or we'll move on to something else and I'll continue to bloviate.

Better yet, aren't you in the area? We should ride and pretend like we know what we're talking about on bikes.

Grant McLean
01-06-2006, 09:52 AM
It's also how much money you spend on other things. I don't need a motorcycle (been there), or a Beemer or Audi or Benz. My Serotta is my one "luxury" item. I'm also debt free.

John, As long as I remain "car-free" I figure that whatever I spend on bikes,
I remain ahead of the game. It's just a good thing E-Richie's wait list is so
long, that reduces the frequency a bit!

-gee

Fixed
01-06-2006, 09:56 AM
John, As long as I remain "car-free" I figure that whatever I spend on bikes,
I remain ahead of the game. It's just a good thing E-Richie's wait list is so
long, that reduces the frequency a bit!

-gee
amen bro

Grant McLean
01-06-2006, 09:58 AM
doh bro.
if i counted all the way back to 12th grade, i couldn't
come up with seven figures. none whose last names
i ever knew - that's for danm sure. imho.

Your jokes are in fine form today...
Too bad you're not in great shape...


-gee

andy mac
01-06-2006, 10:36 AM
don't confuse income with wealth...

and def don't confuse nice cars with wealth. there are way too many people in debt with a nice leased ride.

there was an interesting article in the NYT recently saying that traditionally wealth has been passed from one generation to another. however, many baby boomers were the first generation to spend what they inherited, and, all their own money. in effect a double dose of $$.

Could be interesting down the track…

back to the coupons,

andy

JohnS
01-06-2006, 10:38 AM
don't confuse income with wealth...

and def don't confuse nice cars with wealth. there are way too many people in debt with a nice leased ride.

there was an interesting article in the NYT recently saying that traditionally wealth has been passed from one generation to another. however, many baby boomers were the first generation to spend what they inherited, and, all their own money. in effect a double dose of $$.

Could be interesting down the track…

back to the coupons,

andy
One of these days the car leases and interest-only mortgages are going to bite people in the @ss.

Ozz
01-06-2006, 11:15 AM
One of these days the car leases and interest-only mortgages are going to bite people in the @ss.
It's biting them now...they just don't know it. :cool:

YO!!!
01-06-2006, 01:27 PM
It's biting them now...they just don't know it. :cool:

The side benefit to all of the lease/program vehicles in circulation
is that the manufacturers can no longer dispose of the off-lease
vehicles through their dealerships. A secondary market has been
created for brokers/quasi-dealers to emerge. These folks buy lease/
program vehicles from the manufacturers via online auctions held
weekly. They then offer these vehicles to the consumer at much
lower resale prices than the traditional car dealerships. Most vehicles
still have several months/miles left from the original factory new
vehicle warranty. It's a great way to buy a vehicle and save enough
to get yourself a new bicycle as a bonus.