Vincenzo Nibali

[chengher87]

Nibali is looking on very good form this year. A well timed attacked won him Tirreno-Adriatico and another today won him the Giro del Trentino. He disappointed me a little at the tour. I mean he knew going in that the ridiculous amount of time-trialing wasn't going to help him, but his attacks were for the most part, pretty weak. On Voeckler's second stage win, Nibali should have kept attacking until they got to the summit. He is a much better descender than Wiggo or Froome and could have easily gained time over the two Sky riders because it was a straight drop down to the finished at Bagnere de Luchon. I'm hoping he runs wild at the Giro this year because he is a very exciting rider to watch who can attack viciously.

It might have also been because Liquigas-Cannondale did have support for Sagan too. Since Astana has no sprinters, I think Nibali will be well supported. I can not WAIT until the Giro in May.

[firerescuefin]

Do you really see him beating Wiggins in a Grand Tour. Without the mechanical, I'm not sure he would have beat him today.

Regarding the Tour last year....Sky was just too strong. I actually watched the 2012 tour on my trainer over the last 3 weeks. They weren't losing....regardless what he threw at them. Don't get me wrong...I hope he's right there and takes it to him. He's fun to watch.

[chengher87]

Do you really see him beating Wiggins in a Grand Tour. Without the mechanical, I'm not sure he would have beat him today.

Regarding the Tour last year....Sky was just too strong. I actually watched the 2012 tour on my trainer over the last 3 weeks. They weren't losing....regardless what he threw at them. Don't get me wrong...I hope he's right there and takes it to him. He's fun to watch.

Even without the mechanical, I do think that Nibali would have beaten Wiggo today. A grand tour? That might be a different story. But there were chinks in the armor at the tour. Froome gapped Wiggo quite a bit in the mountains from time to time and I think if Niabli really dug in, Sky would have had to roll the dice either allowing Nibali to fly knowing that Wiggo might have enough time in the bag in the Time Trial, or letting Froome off his leash. At the very least, it would have created a rift on the team and disharmony could work in everyone else's favor (although there is history with team discord and oddly enough it works to the team's favor: see Hinault and Lemond and Lance and Contador, both teams won the yellow jersey).

Sky has the advantage on the longer lower gradient climbs in the Tour, but they struggled to keep the peloton in check in the Giro and Vuelta last year and I think that trend may continue. Those shorter, extremely steeper climbs favor explosive climbers and gaps can form and spread out very quickly. Team Sky was blown apart on these climbs in the Giro and Vuelta and Uran and Froome (respectively) were isolated quite a bit (in relation to Wiggo who was essentially a shadow the entire tour). Even on today's final climb, there were three Astana riders still at the front and Wiggo with the mechanical, flew past his only teammate not to crack in no time.

[firerescuefin]

Even without the mechanical, I do think that Nibali would have beaten Wiggo today. A grand tour? That might be a different story. But there were chinks in the armor at the tour. Froome gapped Wiggo quite a bit in the mountains from time to time and I think if Niabli really dug in, Sky would have had to roll the dice either allowing Nibali to fly knowing that Wiggo might have enough time in the bag in the Time Trial, or letting Froome off his leash. At the very least, it would have created a rift on the team and disharmony could work in everyone else's favor (although there is history with team discord and oddly enough it works to the team's favor: see Hinault and Lemond and Lance and Contador, both teams won the yellow jersey).

Sky has the advantage on the longer lower gradient climbs in the Tour, but they struggled to keep the peloton in check in the Giro and Vuelta last year and I think that trend may continue. Those shorter, extremely steeper climbs favor explosive climbers and gaps can form and spread out very quickly. Team Sky was blown apart on these climbs in the Giro and Vuelta and Uran and Froome (respectively) were isolated quite a bit (in relation to Wiggo who was essentially a shadow the entire tour). Even on today's final climb, there were three Astana riders still at the front and Wiggo with the mechanical, flew past his only teammate not to crack in no time.

Well first off....I hope you're right. I am not sure of the team that Sky is sending/ how they are going to support the Giro and the Tour. Regarding the tour last year...I have no doubt Froom could have/should have won...rewatching the Tour just re-inforced the idea in my mind, but I Wiggins seemed to have a harder time responding to Froome than anything Nibali threw down (although when you've got Rogers, Porte, and Froome) as your pacesetters/markers, it wasn't fair...damn they were strong. I would have really liked to see Wiggins and the protagonists square off man to man....but that wasn't going to happen. Anyways...thanks for the discussion:) We don't get enough race discussion on here IMO:help:

[chengher87]

Well first off....I hope you're right. I am not sure of the team that Sky is sending/ how they are going to support the Giro and the Tour. Regarding the tour last year...I have no doubt Froom could have/should have one...rewatching the Tour just re-inforced the idea in my mind, but I Wiggins seemed to have a harder time responding to Froome than anything Nibali threw down (although when you've got Rogers, Porte, and Froome) as your pacesetters/markers, it wasn't fair...damn they were strong. I would have really liked to see Wiggins and the protagonists square off man to man....but that wasn't going to happen. Anyways...thanks for the discussion:) We don't get enough race discussion on here IMO:help:

I do love racing discussion and thanks for the responses. To be honest, if I seem a bit salty (which I'm not), it's just because I hate Team Sky. They literally poached riders to fill their roster, and their preaching of clean cycling undermines their underhanded tactics on the team. The Ben Swift debacle really irks me the most.

And I do agree, Froome put Wiggo in more difficulty than anyone else in the peloton. But I really think this year will show whether or not Team Sky is really strong, or the field in the 2012 Tour was just that weak.

[firerescuefin]

I do love racing discussion and thanks for the responses. To be honest, if I seem a bit salty (which I'm not), it's just because I hate Team Sky. They literally poached riders to fill their roster, and their preaching of clean cycling undermines their underhanded tactics on the team. The Ben Swift debacle really irks me the most.

And I do agree, Froome put Wiggo in more difficulty than anyone else in the peloton. But I really think this year will show whether or not Team Sky is really strong, or the field in the 2012 Tour was just that weak.

...I just don't see a team or even a single protagonist that I see taking them on. I will be interested to see how Sky manages the 2 fronts...and how much Wiggins will put it on the line for Froome in July. Froome would have also won the 2011 Vuelta had it not been his pulling/ waiting on Wiggins the last week....so as much as I don't like Sky, I would like to Froome ride as a protected leader...he's earned it. Those guys are all one crash of seeing it all potentially disappear.....Can't wait.

[Llewellyn]

Regarding the Tour last year....Sky was just too strong. I actually watched the 2012 tour on my trainer over the last 3 weeks.

:eek: :eek:

You're made of stronger stuff than I am. There's nothing about the 2012 Tour that I would want to watch again. Most boring Tour I've seen in years.

[firerescuefin]

:eek: :eek:

You're made of stronger stuff than I am. There's nothing about the 2012 Tour that I would want to watch again. Most boring Tour I've seen in years.

Lots of time on the trainer...we can't all live in the warm southern hemisphere:)

[Llewellyn]

Lots of time on the trainer...we can't all live in the warm southern hemisphere:)

There are many times when I'd happily trade our summer for your winter :)

[firerescuefin]

BTW...I was pulling for your mate Cadel...I love the way he has ridden since he put on the WC stripes. After stage 7 when he attacked on the 20% grade in the last 1K and Froome took him after dragging Wiggo along...I knew it wasn't in the cards...I hope he comes back with both barrels this year.

[chengher87]

...I just don't see a team or even a single protagonist that I see taking them on. I will be interested to see how Sky manages the 2 fronts...and how much Wiggins will put it on the line for Froome in July. Froome would have also won the 2011 Vuelta had it not been his pulling/ waiting on Wiggins the last week....so as much as I don't like Sky, I would like to Froome ride as a protected leader...he's earned it. Those guys are all one crash of seeing it all potentially disappear.....Can't wait.

I actually like Saxo-Tinkoff, not only because of Contador. But I think that adding Roche and Kreuzinger really strengthened that team. Jesus Hernandez is a great domestique and Contador's best friend, so he'll go into overdrive. Plus they got Micky Rogers from Sky. Looking at the other teams:

Ag2r: No True GC rider on the roster, so I think they'll be hunting for stage wins per usual.
Argos-Shimano: Solely leadout train for Degenkolb or Kittel.
Astana: With Nibali focusing on Giro, leadership will go to Brajkovic or Fuglsang and I don't think either rider will be a threat..
BMC: Evans or Van Garderen, either way both will get walloped in the mountains and their team has no true climbers
Euskaltel-Euskadi: Should be a Pro-continental team
FDJ: Pinot is an up and comer, but the team is weak
Garmin-Sharp: Team has good domestiques, but no one dominant GC kind of guy, especially with Hesjadal defending his Giro title.
Orica GreendEDGE: Leadout train for Matty Goss
Lampre-Merida: Focused more on Giro
Cannondale: Basso gives way to Sagan
Lotto-Belisol: Greipel the focus, not Van Den Broeck
Movistar: Wildcard team, Strong climbers, strong time-trialers and have versatility with Quintana and Valverde
Omega-Pharma: Support for Cavendish and although Tony Martin thinks he's a GC guy....he isn't
Blanco: People have been saying Gesink will finally break out...he won't and Mollema isn't a good second option.
Katusha: Love Purito, but he's suited for the Giro or Vuelta. He'll place high in the Tour, but he can't time trial for crap!
Radioshack: Andy Schleck!? Child, please.
Saxo-Tinkoff: Already talked about
Vacansoleil: If Thomas De Gendt pulls another brilliant solo attack, that would be awesome!
Confidis: Nope
Europcar: Rollland can't time trial and Voeckler can't time trial or climb (although he has improved quite a bit)

So that's my take on the teams and you're right, unless someone comes out of nowhere, Sky should be in the catbird seat.

[Llewellyn]

BTW...I was pulling for your mate Cadel...I love the way he has ridden since he put on the WC stripes. After stage 7 when he attacked on the 20% grade in the last 1K and Froome took him after dragging Wiggo along...I knew it wasn't in the cards...I hope he comes back with both barrels this year.

I'm sure he will but I don't see it being enough for him to win another tour. I just think he's past his best but that won't stop him giving it everything he's got (that's one of the things I really like about him). I've always been a big fan of Cadel.

[firerescuefin]

Great summary...I had forgot about Rogers going to Saxo...that's right...his white was too stained for the guys at Sky:rolleyes:...that's not a small loss. He spends a lot of time on the front. Regarding Contador...I love the way he races, but am not convinced that a Clean (whatever the hell that means in reality) Contador will have what it takes in July...they certainly have the braintrust there...not just the guys that think they're the smartest (see Brailsford and the Sky Elite).


I actually like Saxo-Tinkoff, not only because of Contador. But I think that adding Roche and Kreuzinger really strengthened that team. Jesus Hernandez is a great domestique and Contador's best friend, so he'll go into overdrive. Plus they got Micky Rogers from Sky. Looking at the other teams:

Ag2r: No True GC rider on the roster, so I think they'll be hunting for stage wins per usual.
Argos-Shimano: Solely leadout train for Degenkolb or Kittel.
Astana: With Nibali focusing on Giro, leadership will go to Brajkovic or Fuglsang and I don't think either rider will be a threat..
BMC: Evans or Van Garderen, either way both will get walloped in the mountains and their team has no true climbers
Euskaltel-Euskadi: Should be a Pro-continental team
FDJ: Pinot is an up and comer, but the team is weak
Garmin-Sharp: Team has good domestiques, but no one dominant GC kind of guy, especially with Hesjadal defending his Giro title.
Orica GreendEDGE: Leadout train for Matty Goss
Lampre-Merida: Focused more on Giro
Cannondale: Basso gives way to Sagan
Lotto-Belisol: Greipel the focus, not Van Den Broeck
Movistar: Wildcard team, Strong climbers, strong time-trialers and have versatility with Quintana and Valverde
Omega-Pharma: Support for Cavendish and although Tony Martin thinks he's a GC guy....he isn't
Blanco: People have been saying Gesink will finally break out...he won't and Mollema isn't a good second option.
Katusha: Love Purito, but he's suited for the Giro or Vuelta. He'll place high in the Tour, but he can't time trial for crap!
Radioshack: Andy Schleck!? Child, please.
Saxo-Tinkoff: Already talked about
Vacansoleil: If Thomas De Gendt pulls another brilliant solo attack, that would be awesome!
Confidis: Nope
Europcar: Rollland can't time trial and Voeckler can't time trial or climb (although he has improved quite a bit)

So that's my take on the teams and you're right, unless someone comes out of nowhere, Sky should be in the catbird seat.

[Jack Brunk]

Wiggins is a step below, hack etc. Unless there's help from above. Praise the $ord.

[verticaldoug]

I just hope Contador is on form. Tours are more exciting with him, than without him. Last year, I lost interest in the TdF. It was as boring as they get.

[slidey]

Last year's TdF left a very sick knot in my stomach...the similarities between Sky/Postal made for very uneasy viewing, not to mention the absolute boring ordeal the whole thing was reduced to.

The Vuelta on the other hand...now, that was a race!

Rooting for Contador, or any one else who can show guts along with the wits, i.e. in F1 terms I'm in the camp of Senna, and not Prost.

[BdaGhisallo]

I do love racing discussion and thanks for the responses. To be honest, if I seem a bit salty (which I'm not), it's just because I hate Team Sky. They literally poached riders to fill their roster, and their preaching of clean cycling undermines their underhanded tactics on the team. The Ben Swift debacle really irks me the most.

And I do agree, Froome put Wiggo in more difficulty than anyone else in the peloton. But I really think this year will show whether or not Team Sky is really strong, or the field in the 2012 Tour was just that weak.

What is the Ben Swift debacle you refer to? I haven't heard anything on that.

As for rider poaching, it takes three to tango. The rider has to want to come, and the team he is on has to agree to let him go. Every rider has a price it seems. If some team offered Riis $50 million to let go of Contador, do you think there would be time for them to shake hands before Contador was gone?

[jpw]

:eek: :eek:

You're made of stronger stuff than I am. There's nothing about the 2012 Tour that I would want to watch again. Most boring Tour I've seen in years.

Bring back Lance:rolleyes:

[BdaGhisallo]

I hear you. For me the most interesting Tour of the last thirty years was 1987. The result was uncertain until the end and it was only a few days before the end that the race came down to two riders, in Roche and Delgado. The race had a good number of changes and big swings. Bernard took yellow after the Ventoux TT and looked on his way to victory but a coalition of riders attacked him the next day on some narrow roads through a village that one domestique knew well and they left him. His misery was compounded by a flat that cost him further time. And, for me, Roche was one of the most tactically astute riders ever. If you read his book "The Agony and the Ectasy" about his magical '87 season you will get an insight into one of the keenest tactical minds that cycling has ever seen.

Last year's Tour was dull. More often that not, we have to revel in the athletic superiority of the winner since the tactical battle is a damp squib. The Giro usually seems to be a much better "race" than the Tour.

[chengher87]

What is the Ben Swift debacle you refer to? I haven't heard anything on that.

As for rider poaching, it takes three to tango. The rider has to want to come, and the team he is on has to agree to let him go. Every rider has a price it seems. If some team offered Riis $50 million to let go of Contador, do you think there would be time for them to shake hands before Contador was gone?

It's very much similar to the Wiggins Garmin-Slipstream poaching but so much skeevier. Ben Swift had a contract with Katusha and had two years left I think. Sky made no bones about wanting Swift and his agent (as a puppet of Sky) said Swift's contract should be null and void because he was coerced to sign an agreement, apparently against his will and in another language (saying he wouldn't be able to ride the Giro), so he shouldn't be held responsible for honoring the contract. The agreement you ask? Katusha's clean rider agreement before the 2009 Giro. Granted the 5x salary reimbursement might bit much, but seriously, if you aren't DOPING why won't you sign it?

But I guess it works both ways. Slipstream got poached, but knowing Hushovd wouldn't be back, they sat him for most of the end of the season before he went to BMC. Dick move.

[BdaGhisallo]

Yep to all that. It's a business first and second and sport third.

[jpw]

Yep to all that. It's a business first and second and sport third.

show me a pro sport that isn't.

[Black Dog]

I hear you. For me the most interesting Tour of the last thirty years was 1987. The result was uncertain until the end and it was only a few days before the end that the race came down to two riders, in Roche and Delgado. The race had a good number of changes and big swings. Bernard took yellow after the Ventoux TT and looked on his way to victory but a coalition of riders attacked him the next day on some narrow roads through a village that one domestique knew well and they left him. His misery was compounded by a flat that cost him further time. And, for me, Roche was one of the most tactically astute riders ever. If you read his book "The Agony and the Ectasy" about his magical '87 season you will get an insight into one of the keenest tactical minds that cycling has ever seen.

Last year's Tour was dull. More often that not, we have to revel in the athletic superiority of the winner since the tactical battle is a damp squib. The Giro usually seems to be a much better "race" than the Tour.

Agreed. 87 was amazing and 86 and 89 are not far behind. Of the recent tours, I would put 2006 on the list.

[chengher87]

Agreed. 87 was amazing and 86 and 89 are not far behind. Of the recent tours, I would put 2006 on the list.

2006 was great at the time, with Landis' attack and Sastre clawing for time at every opportunity. But looking back, it kind of was a travesty. Pereiro was gifted the tour because of terrible team tactics and I mean TERRIBLE. I don't fault Phonak for not chasing because their team was waek, everyone but Axel Merckx was dropped and so they would not be able to defend the jersey. But for none of the other teams cooperating was stupid. If they had worked together to capture Voigt and Pereiro, Landis would still have been in yellow and Phonak would have had to chase everyone. But CSC did nothing and Rabobank chased for a little bit, but stopped when they realized they would just burn themselves out.

[slidey]

Snooker! :banana:

show me a pro sport that isn't.

[firerescuefin]

Wiggins is a step below, hack etc. Unless there's help from above. Praise the $ord.

Cmon Jack...Olympic champion in multiple disciplines....a year last year that was amazing without the Tour win...and the TdF win. Not a hack.