Could Cancellara win Liege - Bastogne - Liege (obviously, not this year)

[MattTuck]

Of current racers, he's the closest to all 5 monuments in his career (still needing LBL and Giro di Lombardia).

He seems to peak early, pretty much holding form from Strade Bianche all the way to Paris-Roubaix. Do you think it is even possible to hold form for another 2 weeks? If not, is it worth trying to peak later to make a go of LBL?

You have to think he's got 2 or 3 more years of quality racing at the top of the game... worth it to lower the odds of RvV or PR in order to give himself a shot at the lifetime monument grand slam?

The most recent winners are:

2001 Oscar Camenzind
2002 Paolo Bettini
2003 Tyler Hamilton (USA) Team CSC
2004 Davide Rebellin (ITA) Gerolsteiner
2005 Alexandre Vinokourov (KAZ) T-Mobile Team
2006 Alejandro Valverde (ESP) Caisse d'Epargne-Illes Balears
2007 Danilo Di Luca (ITA) Liquigas
2008 Alejandro Valverde (ESP) Caisse d'Epargne
2009 Andy Schleck (LUX) Team Saxo Bank
2010 Alexandre Vinokourov (KAZ) Astana
2011 Philippe Gilbert (BEL) Omega Pharma-Lotto
2012 Maxim Iglinsky (KAZ) Astana

[harlond]

I suspect he can't climb well enough to pull it off. Still I'd love to see him focus on that. And Lombardia.

[false_Aest]

i think there's some magic jujitsu somewhere that can help him hold form.

That he doesn't helps me believe that he's not drinking Ecto Cooler.

Speaking of Ecto Cooler

That list of recent winners needs a lot of * next to the names huh?

[MattTuck]

I suspect he can't climb well enough to pull it off. Still I'd love to see him focus on that. And Lombardia.

He did win the Tour de Suisse in 2009, which required some good climbing.

But his physiology does seem to suggest that those medium climbs in LBL are not really his sweet spot like the shorter hills of RvV.



false, ain't that the truth!

[cfox]

No way. He has 30 pounds on the biggest guy in that list. Even more so since they put in roche aux facons. LBL is stupidly, unbelievably hard. Sagan won't do it because he says it's too hard, (his words).

[christian]

As cfox says, pick any two winners from that list, put them in pdmtong's Santana tandem, and Cancellara still outweighs 'em.

He'd need a moped.

Btw, cfox - did you see Vertical Doug's cue sheet for Hastings-Carmel-Hastings? It's a replica of LBL in Weschester and Putnam. Really underscores how brutally hard the event is.

[cfox]

As cfox says, pick any two winners from that list, put them in pdmtong's Santana tandem, and Cancellara still outweighs 'em.

He'd need a moped.

Btw, cfox - did you see Vertical Doug's cue sheet for Hastings-Carmel-Hastings? It's a replica of LBL in Weschester and Putnam. Really underscores how brutally hard the event is.

I have seen that route. It's a brute! I have a couple of routes from Redding to Washington that are LBL-esque. Half mile to 1.5 mile steep climbs, one after another. Not that I'm good at it, but that's my favorite style of ride. And no stinking gravel. I ride a road bike, not a gravel bike. I love LBL, easily my favorite race to watch every year. Can't wait to go ride that route some day.

[alessandro]

He did win the Tour de Suisse in 2009, which required some good climbing.

The TdS course that year was designed for FC, with opening and closing TTs. Some called it a coronation.

Here's a quote from Cycling Weekly:

The Tour of Switzerland usually includes some of the hardest and highest climbs in Europe but gave Cancellara a huge hand by hiding the toughest climbs early on stages and by choosing relatively easy finish climbs.

[rustychisel]

That list of recent winners needs a lot of * next to the names huh?


Yup. 2 possibly amongst a rogues gallery.

[CunegoFan]

Judging by the way Wiggins and Froome suddenly learned how to climb, I think FC could do it. He would probably have to give up targeting the cobbled classics to go for LBL, so it would be giving up something he knows he can win for something he might be able to. Not a good bet. Lombardia would be better because he would have months to pare his weight down, but there he might be giving up performing at the TdF, which his sponsors would not be happy about, and the road WC, which he really wants to win.

[nrs5000]

He'd also need teammates, something along the lines of one or more healthy, in-form and racing eligible Schlecks, to sit in when he went on a longer range attack.

[jpw]

He thought about it a couple of winters ago, changed his diet and training, got hacked off with it, and went back to being a flat classics rider.

I can imagine he might give it another go once his top end power finally begins to ebb away, but for now I think he quite likes the idea of winning Ronde and PR.

[cfox]

No way. He has 30 pounds on the biggest guy in that list. Even more so since they put in roche aux facons. LBL is stupidly, unbelievably hard. Sagan won't do it because he says it's too hard, (his words).

don't listen to this dumbass^^ cfox. no roche aux facon this year due to roadwork. replaced with a much easier climb called the coloncleanser or something. this will change the nature of this years race big time (FC still couldn't win it, though!)