OT: Ray, how's your Bitcoin investment going?

[MattTuck]

Bitcoin was the new gold, but it's so played out now.

Palladium is the new bitcoin. you heard it here first ;)

Boy was I wrong about this... written back in 2013.

Now I'm wondering how to establish smallish positions in this, ethereum and Tezos.

[William]

Boy was I wrong about this... written back in 2013.

Now I'm wondering how to establish smallish positions in this, ethereum and Tezos.



I'm betting on good Tequila being the next big currency...just ask George Clooney.





:)
William

[yngpunk]

Boy was I wrong about this... written back in 2013.

Now I'm wondering how to establish smallish positions in this, ethereum and Tezos.

Not sure about Ethereum...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/ethereum-hack-blockchain-fork-bitcoin-1.3719009

This is a pretty good, albeit somewhat technical, article about how it Ethereum got hacked:

https://medium.freecodecamp.org/a-hacker-stole-31m-of-ether-how-it-happened-and-what-it-means-for-ethereum-9e5dc29e33ce

[efuentes]

Ethereum was not really hacked, a contract written in ethereum was hacked, a contract with really poor security, amateurish really.

What you get when web developers start writing sec software :hello:

[redir]

I read the highlights of an article the other day that bitcoin is forking. That doesn't sound too promising.

[MattTuck]

Not sure about the fork, I believe most people think that Bitcoin cash is going to whither and die, and the core bitcoin blockchain will continue...

Not really 100% sure, but that is my reading of it.

And yes, Ethereum wallets have been hacked, but not to my understanding has the underlying Ethereum platform been compromised.

The thing that Ethereum and Tezos (when it launches) have that bitcoin lacks, is the smart contract features, and with Tezos, you get built in decentralized decision making so you avoid the fork issues that bitcoin has had.

Still, bitcoin has the finite amount of bitcoins, never to grow. There is some value in that... not sure it worth 2700+ per bitcoin, but maybe.

[54ny77]

interesting article. while my small mind just can't grasp the use of (let alone investing in) an alternative currency that's not backed by a country or block of countries, it's nonetheless interesting to read about from afar.

it would be economic calamity to see the dollar or euro exhibit that kind of price volatility.

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-08-07/bitcoin-has-a-spoofy-problem

"Bitcoin has hit a new record of more than $3,300. Just another day at the office for a crypto-currency that's risen 50 percent in one month, 200 percent in six months and 30,000 percent in five years."

[Bruce K]

And many people laughed at Ray and the bitcoin idea .....

If you were a smart investor and got in early and played this market wisely, even with a modest investment, you are probably feeling pretty good about now.

but like many investments, this may not be true for all.

BK

[54ny77]

As an investment, that's one thing.

But it's kind of hard to whip out $2.67 in bitcoin to buy a bottle of water from the corner market...

That's really what I'm really referring to--wide adoption, and use.

Do you put your faith in a cryptocurrency, or one issued by your country and considered the only legal tender (and all the perceived or real implications that go with it)?

Surely another version of Bitcoin-like cryptocurrency will come along and be competition.

If I were sitting in a chair in gov't, I'd consider that a destabilizing force. For example, it's tough enough policing hawalah, let alone fully understanding the impact of it on emerging market economies. That topic in & of itself is fascinating. Got introduced to it years ago by an EM guy. Very keen insight, gist of it was many countries have to be looked at as though there's two sets of books.

Add in cryptocurrency to that mix, and it becomes quite a mishmosh of stuff to navigate.

MattTuck, aren't you an econ professor? Crypocurrency as a destabilizing force would be an interesting class to take in university. Bring in some high level EM money mgrs to speak on it, as well as pros in the financial intelligence world. Boy that'd be a fun class to listen in on.

And many people laughed at Ray and the bitcoin idea .....

If you were a smart investor and got in early and played this market wisely, even with a modest investment, you are probably feeling pretty good about now.

but like many investments, this may not be true for all.

BK

[fuzzalow]

Man. this bitcoin thread is still boppin' around.

I'm OK not messin' with things that I don't fully understand or can't fully understand because it is purposely kept opaque - 'cos I ain't quite as dumb as I seem.

All these bitcoin value numbers are meaningless unless it is possible to unwind the open positions and still have a market left afterwards. Show me the money...which is another way of saying show me the liquidity. Without the underlying support and legitimacy of conversion back to hard currency, these per bitcoin valuations are just stroking one's self in public. The trick isn't in the valuation, the trick is in closing the position.

If anyone can make hay with this stuff, then more power to them. Part of being a successful investor is knowing how to say No and got to know one's limitations. I don't mind watching this ship sail without me even if I really miss out - hey my loss but I also don't have to screw around with markets like this one. Good luck to the forum colleagues here that do.

[bobswire]

Man. this bitcoin thread is still boppin' around.

I'm OK not messin' with things that I don't fully understand or can't fully understand because it is purposely kept opaque - 'cos I ain't quite as dumb as I seem.

All these bitcoin value numbers are meaningless unless it is possible to unwind the open positions and still have a market left afterwards. Show me the money...which is another way of saying show me the liquidity. Without the underlying support and legitimacy of conversion back to hard currency, these per bitcoin valuations are just stroking one's self in public. The trick isn't in the valuation, the trick is in closing the position.

If anyone can make hay with this stuff, then more power to them. Part of being a successful investor is knowing how to say No and got to know one's limitations. I don't mind watching this ship sail without me even if I really miss out - hey my loss but I also don't have to screw around with markets like this one. Good luck to the forum colleagues here that do.

True that, I invested in Webvan instead of Apple (@$14 a share) with a pocket full of coin back when I thought I was keen tech wise investor with an eye towards the future. I was kinda right but took the wrong vehicle. :o

[MattTuck]

As an investment, that's one thing.

But it's kind of hard to whip out $2.67 in bitcoin to buy a bottle of water from the corner market...

That's really what I'm really referring to--wide adoption, and use.

Do you put your faith in a cryptocurrency, or one issued by your country and considered the only legal tender (and all the perceived or real implications that go with it)?

Surely another version of Bitcoin-like cryptocurrency will come along and be competition.

If I were sitting in a chair in gov't, I'd consider that a destabilizing force. For example, it's tough enough policing hawalah, let alone fully understanding the impact of it on emerging market economies. That topic in & of itself is fascinating. Got introduced to it years ago by an EM guy. Very keen insight, gist of it was many countries have to be looked at as though there's two sets of books.

Add in cryptocurrency to that mix, and it becomes quite a mishmosh of stuff to navigate.

MattTuck, aren't you an econ professor? Crypocurrency as a destabilizing force would be an interesting class to take in university. Bring in some high level EM money mgrs to speak on it, as well as pros in the financial intelligence world. Boy that'd be a fun class to listen in on.

Not a prof, cuz I don't have a PhD, but work with plenty of them, and do develop courses with them.

I've been looking at bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as a potential area of research, and I do think the underlying block chain technology has some real applications.

It could be incredibly destabilizing. Specifically, the companies that make money sending money (banks, wire transfers, remittances, etc) could see their fees dry up as a result of this technology. Or, we could see them drop their prices and consumers get a better deal.

Same thing could be said for governments and central banks. Take a country like Venezuela today, I think people would rather hold bitcoin or some other asset than the worthless fiat currency they are producing. The response to this could be to try to outlaw the bitcoin. Another response would be that central banks and governments, in the face of competition, do more to create a system of money that works for its citizens. Perhaps the citizens win in the end, whether bitcoin ever becomes dominant.

All that said, the extreme volatility is bad for its use as a means of exchange.

I got interested in bitcoin in 2011, and did try to set it up on my computer, but got tangled in the technical set up, and never did get it up and running. Huge regret today, obviously. Once it got to 100, I thought it was a bubble. and again at 1,000.

I did finally buy some small fraction of a bitcoin, just to see what it was all about. It's somewhat of a hassle, but not terrible. I do think it has the potential to be worth millions of dollars per bitcoin, but that is a long shot. An equally likely outcome could be a large scale government crack down and ban on crypocurrencies -- though that seems less likely given recent moves from the SEC and CFTC.

Hard to say about the prices today. We could look back in 5 years and say that $3,000 was cheap.

And fuzz: It isn't opaque. It is complex, but all the code is open source. So, you could look at it.

[MattTuck]

Here is the original white paper if anyone is interested in reading it.

https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

[fuzzalow]

And fuzz: It isn't opaque. It is complex, but all the code is open source. So, you could look at it.

OK Matt, I'll simply accept what you say about it 'cos I'll not likely need to know the gritty details about bitcoin or somebody isn't paying me to know about it. Which for me means both of which are the same thing.

But from how I know things to be: In finance complex is a synonym for opacity. I know how the sausage is made. I have made the sausage.

[FlashUNC]

Best advice an accountant for the financial services biz ever told me, this being back in the heady days of 2005-2006: "None of this is a dark art. It isn't magic. If someone can't explain it easily, don't go near it."

[cat6]

Best advice an accountant for the financial services biz ever told me, this being back in the heady days of 2005-2006: "None of this is a dark art. It isn't magic. If someone can't explain it easily, don't go near it."

That's good advice. Just remember that something that can be easily explained and understood between two other people, and not you, doesn't make it complicated. It just means you don't understand it.

So if Bitcoin is not understood by you you're right to stay out.

Same reason my Grandmother isn't on Facebook.

[MattTuck]

Best advice an accountant for the financial services biz ever told me, this being back in the heady days of 2005-2006: "None of this is a dark art. It isn't magic. If someone can't explain it easily, don't go near it."

Are you saying that the hard part to explain is the underlying block chain technology or the justification for the current valuations?

If it is the first, I think you could understand it if you invested the time. From my interactions on here, I know you're no dummy. If it is the second, I can empathize (having decided many times previously that the valuations were absurd). It is something that did not exist before it was created, so there is no easy precedent for valuing it.

But, to put it in perspective, there are only 21 million bitcoins that can ever exist. If you consider that all money that exists is about 65 trillion (got from searching google), owning 1/21 millionth of all currency would give you about $3 million. But, another view is that this could trade more like a real asset (think houses), there are (just in the US) 80 million houses. So, perhaps thinking of a bitcoin in the range of a house value (similar scarcity) might make sense. Or, maybe it is viewed as a safe haven asset and behaves more like gold; are there 21 million wealthy people around the world that are willing to buy 1 btc to diversify their assets? What is their willingness to pay to hold such a thing?

It is a big unknown, but that is what makes it interesting. Don't go investing your whole net worth on it, but consider it as a transformative/disruptive technology. Blockchain has lots of potential applications. A friend of mine said the following when I mentioned I thought recent prices were a bubble. Yeah, well internet stocks were a bubble in 1999, but the internet did not go away after it popped. Lesson there is that valuations may be in a bubble, but that doesn't mean the technology isn't real.

[fuzzalow]

But, to put it in perspective, there are only 21 million bitcoins that can ever exist.

I am admittedly speaking purely out of ignorance. But I'm gonna say it anyway....

Something intended and designed as a synthetic currency which means its purpose among many things, is that it is designed as a storer of value as well as a medium of exchange.

This synthetic currency has built into it a fixed float @ 21M units. Therefore the individual bitcoin unit value is total assets received in the form of the pool assets plus net additional incoming deposits divided by the fixed float of 21M units. There is a clear benefit from buying in early before the runup in the unit price when the total asset pool was smaller. The investors late to the game are paying the (much) higher current unit price. There is incentive to keep interest & participation zealous in order to sustain the inflow of deposits which further drives appreciation to the unit price.

Have I got the basic part of this right?

This is not crypto currency or whatever made up term to sound sexy & cool. This is a pyramid scheme.

[FlashUNC]

That's good advice. Just remember that something that can be easily explained and understood between two other people, and not you, doesn't make it complicated. It just means you don't understand it.

So if Bitcoin is not understood by you you're right to stay out.

Same reason my Grandmother isn't on Facebook.

Are you saying that the hard part to explain is the underlying block chain technology or the justification for the current valuations?

If it is the first, I think you could understand it if you invested the time. From my interactions on here, I know you're no dummy. If it is the second, I can empathize (having decided many times previously that the valuations were absurd). It is something that did not exist before it was created, so there is no easy precedent for valuing it.

But, to put it in perspective, there are only 21 million bitcoins that can ever exist. If you consider that all money that exists is about 65 trillion (got from searching google), owning 1/21 millionth of all currency would give you about $3 million. But, another view is that this could trade more like a real asset (think houses), there are (just in the US) 80 million houses. So, perhaps thinking of a bitcoin in the range of a house value (similar scarcity) might make sense. Or, maybe it is viewed as a safe haven asset and behaves more like gold; are there 21 million wealthy people around the world that are willing to buy 1 btc to diversify their assets? What is their willingness to pay to hold such a thing?

It is a big unknown, but that is what makes it interesting. Don't go investing your whole net worth on it, but consider it as a transformative/disruptive technology. Blockchain has lots of potential applications. A friend of mine said the following when I mentioned I thought recent prices were a bubble. Yeah, well internet stocks were a bubble in 1999, but the internet did not go away after it popped. Lesson there is that valuations may be in a bubble, but that doesn't mean the technology isn't real.

To be clear, I understand the underlying mechanics easy enough (and some of that technology may be worth incorporating into the global monetary system, such as it is), but when you start to ask why valuations are where they are, why the market functions as it does, and just, say, why someone thought it was a good idea to make the largest global repository of bitcoins out of a former Magic: The Gathering trading card site, well...you start to get a lot of hand-waving a lot of "because reasons" kind of explanations that don't hold much water and, to fuzz's point, start to sound very scammish rather quickly.

[54ny77]

yep. voila! :hello:

not that the wonderous machinations of gov't accounting don't give one pause, but man, at least the gubmint's got something like yellowstone as collateral! :D

I am admittedly speaking purely out of ignorance. But I'm gonna say it anyway....

Something intended and designed as a synthetic currency which means its purpose among many things, is that it is designed as a storer of value as well as a medium of exchange.

This synthetic currency has built into it a fixed float @ 21M units. Therefore the individual bitcoin unit value is total assets received in the form of the pool assets plus net additional incoming deposits divided by the fixed float of 21M units. There is a clear benefit from buying in early before the runup in the unit price when the total asset pool was smaller. The investors late to the game are paying the (much) higher current unit price. There is incentive to keep interest & participation zealous in order to sustain the inflow of deposits which further drives appreciation to the unit price.

Have I got the basic part of this right?

This is not crypto currency or whatever made up term to sound sexy & cool. This is a pyramid scheme.

[Scuzzer]

Hey thanks for reminding me. I bought $500 of bitcoins 8 months ago to fund a nefarious online purpose (poker) and decided I didn't want to deal with it. I should go look at what it's worth now, probably better than I could have made from playing with the cash.

[MattTuck]

I am admittedly speaking purely out of ignorance. But I'm gonna say it anyway....

Something intended and designed as a synthetic currency which means its purpose among many things, is that it is designed as a storer of value as well as a medium of exchange.

This synthetic currency has built into it a fixed float @ 21M units. Therefore the individual bitcoin unit value is total assets received in the form of the pool assets plus net additional incoming deposits divided by the fixed float of 21M units. There is a clear benefit from buying in early before the runup in the unit price when the total asset pool was smaller. The investors late to the game are paying the (much) higher current unit price. There is incentive to keep interest & participation zealous in order to sustain the inflow of deposits which further drives appreciation to the unit price.

Have I got the basic part of this right?

This is not crypto currency or whatever made up term to sound sexy & cool. This is a pyramid scheme.

While there will only ever be 21 million bitcoins, each bitcoin is divisible into much smaller parts. Something like 0.0000001 bitcoins.

There are clearly speculators currently chasing a hot asset. There is no question about that. However, the value of the coins and network is much more than just a pyramid scheme. Unlike a bubble like the tulips in Holland, this technology has some real advantages over current money. You can transfer money around the world in a matter of 10 or so minutes, at relatively low cost. Consider an ACH transfer that takes multiple days. Or, consider the billions of people on this planet that have a phone but don't have a bank account. This technology gives them a way to send, receive and store money. These are real use cases that exist today.

Now, don't get me wrong. A lot of the value is predicated upon assumptions about the cryptography, and thus computing power. Major technological changes could undermine the actual system. Certainly, you look at gold which has been used as a store of value for many thousands of years. It is based on certain physical properties of an element that cannot be changed, and is durable over millions of years.

[fuzzalow]

While there will only ever be 21 million bitcoins, each bitcoin is divisible into much smaller parts. Something like 0.0000001 bitcoins.

There are clearly speculators currently chasing a hot asset. There is no question about that. However, the value of the coins and network is much more than just a pyramid scheme. Unlike a bubble like the tulips in Holland, this technology has some real advantages over current money. You can transfer money around the world in a matter of 10 or so minutes, at relatively low cost. Consider an ACH transfer that takes multiple days. Or, consider the billions of people on this planet that have a phone but don't have a bank account. This technology gives them a way to send, receive and store money. These are real use cases that exist today.

Hey Matt. I get where you're comin' from even if I don't get where it's at as far as bitcoin is concerned.

Looking at it from the outside as I do, it is easy to understand why a certain investment bank that shall not be named would look into bitcoin as a way-outta-left-field segment of their speculative book: Variables are a exploitable attribute. Anything you can figure out better and faster than the competition or the market means you can take something outta it while the getting is good. Or even better, become a part of the infrastructure and maintain the vig advantage inherent to making yourself part of the framework.

Now, don't get me wrong. A lot of the value is predicated upon assumptions about the cryptography, and thus computing power. Major technological changes could undermine the actual system. Certainly, you look at gold which has been used as a store of value for many thousands of years. It is based on certain physical properties of an element that cannot be changed, and is durable over millions of years.

Sure. But between dynamic pricing of the synthetic currency coupled with the variable curves associated to technology progression, cryptology and all the other variables I don't even know about there is just way too many variables, These variables crucially left not to the market but to implementation and rollout schedules of the bitcoin infrastructure that downstream effect the pricing and volatility of the bitcoin and hence any potential investment.

Bottom line: I know not to mess with stuff I can't get my head around. You know more than I do about this so I'd be delighted if you made a killing in this market.

[MattTuck]

Bottom line: I know not to mess with stuff I can't get my head around. You know more than I do about this so I'd be delighted if you made a killing in this market.

To be clear, my entire bitcoin holdings are at about $300. I'm not a huge believer in the current valuation, but I am curious enough to experiment and learn a little about it. Don't expect to get rich from it, my main goal is gaining experience and assessing whether it could go mainstream.

But, I do think this is a global phenomenon. Japan is now the biggest exchange market, following by US and Japan. In 5 years, I suspect it will be trading MUCH lower than today, or MUCH higher.

[Scuzzer]

In 5 years, I suspect it will be trading MUCH lower than today, or MUCH higher.

Hey wait. Should I hold onto my $500 or spend it on a bike?

[Louis]

Hey wait. Should I hold onto my $500 or spend it on a bike?

I thought Bitcoin could only be spent on illegal stuff on the Dark Web?

Edit: Just to clarify, I am kidding - I do realize that it can be spent in places as innocuous as Newegg and Subway.

[Scuzzer]

Nope. It works really well for ridiculously unlawful stuff like the subversive act of playing poker online outside of the US. It's technically not against the law for us to play poker, it is against the law for a site to allow Americans to play.

I could legally bet the cash on any number of sporting events. Totally silly social moral laws that profit a few large gaming companies.

[MattTuck]

Hey wait. Should I hold onto my $500 or spend it on a bike?

Unlike conventional investments where I can atleast fall back on some fundamental precepts around risk, return and diversification, I really can't give you any advice on virtual currencies. If my math is right, your original $500 is worth probably $2,000+, right now. If it were me (this is different than advising based on best practices), I'd decide if I believe in idea of bitcoin, and if so, perhaps hold on to it. If I'm uncertain, sell $1,500 and keep the original $500.

I thought Bitcoin could only be spent on illegal stuff on the Dark Web?

Edit: Just to clarify, I am kidding - I do realize that it can be spent in places as innocuous as Newegg and Subway.

Interestingly, Overstock.com was one of the first big companies to accept bitcoin. The CEO, Patrick Byrne, is quite an eccentric guy and is pretty bullish on this technology. Originally, they were converting 90% of their bitcoin purchases to cash immediately and holding 10% as investment. Now, they are saving 50%. They get about $50,000 in bitcoin purchases per week.

[Tony T]

Hey wait. Should I hold onto my $500 or spend it on a bike?

If you put that $500 in bitcoin 8 months ago, its more than $500 now — I say buy a bike (can't ride a bitcoin) :)

[Tony T]

Over $4,000 (up 17%) this morning.
I see that Bitcoin has promise as a real currency, but it is just a currency
(and one without anything backing it up — yes, we can debate what backs up the $)

I can't help thinking of "Tulips (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania)"

[Tony T]

For anyone using digital currency:
NYT: Identity Thieves Hijack Cellphone Accounts to Go After Virtual Currency (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/21/business/dealbook/phone-hack-bitcoin-virtual-currency.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0)

In a growing number of online attacks, hackers have been calling up Verizon, T-Mobile U.S., Sprint and AT&T and asking them to transfer control of a victim’s phone number to a device under the control of the hackers.

The attackers appear to be focusing on anyone who talks on social media about owning virtual currencies or anyone who is known to invest in virtual currency companies, such as venture capitalists. And virtual currency transactions are designed to be irreversible.

The vulnerability of phone numbers is the unintended consequence of a broad push in the security industry to institute a practice, known as two-factor authentication, that is supposed to help make accounts more secure.
Many email providers and financial firms require customers to tie their online accounts to phone numbers, to verify their identity.
But this system also generally allows someone with the phone number to reset the passwords on these accounts without knowing the original passwords. A hacker just hits “forgot password?” and has a new code sent to the commandeered phone.

Mr. Perklin and other people who have investigated recent hacks said the assailants generally succeeded by delivering sob stories about an emergency that required the phone number to be moved to a new device — and by trying multiple times until a gullible agent was found.

Coinbase, one of the most widely used Bitcoin wallets, has encouraged customers to disconnect their mobile phones from their Coinbase accounts.

“Coinbase looks like a bank, stores millions of dollars like a bank, but you don’t realize how weak its default protections are until you are robbed of thousands of dollars in minutes,” said Cody Brown, a virtual reality developer who was hacked in May.

The irreversibility of Bitcoin transactions has often been lauded as one of the most important qualities of virtual currency because it makes it harder for banks and governments to intervene in transactions.

.

[Tony T]

$5,100

[cat6]

$10k

[likebikes]

wow

[54ny77]

modern day tulip bulb mania.

great quote here:

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/bitcoin-bulls-bears/

“Bitcoin just shows you how much demand for money laundering there is in the world.”

[MattTuck]

Maybe.

One could also say it shows how much demand there is for non government controlled money. Or for cheaper ways to transfer money.

Cash is still the largest currency used in criminal activities. Every time I leave cash on the table at a restaurant, I don't hear the people around me whispering that I am some sort of criminal.

[notsew]

Whatever its potential use, its clearly in the midst of a insane bubble. Even its biggest boosters couldn't possibly believe these levels are sustainable? Right?

[moose8]

I’ve got to say the two times people brought up financial advice threads that I’ve remembered- the Facebook IPO and bitcoin - both times you could have made a ton of money if you went with the optimists.

[54ny77]

With Facebook there's liquidity.

Where do you go to cash out of your bitcoin and take the proceeds in your fiat currency of choice?

The winds of regulatory crackdown are starting to blow on the "legitimate" fintech sector. It's only a matter of time before it hits stuff like bitcoin or other blockchain "currency."

It's a huge destabilizing force. That's bad for the business of gov't.

I’ve got to say the two times people brought up financial advice threads that I’ve remembered- the Facebook IPO and bitcoin - both times you could have made a ton of money if you went with the optimists.

[andeww]

Very interesting to go back and read the comments from the past. 5 years ago people were kicking themselves for not buying, again 2 years ago, now today. When will the fear of missing out end?

[54ny77]

so true!

i wonder if that handlebar tape guy, the one who always bitched and moaned about "frn's" (yet ironically was more willing to accept them as payment for his products....) dropped accepting those awful "frn's" and now only accepts bitcoin.

let's assume a vendor is accepting bitcoin as currency. do they continually adjust product pricing relative to bitcoin value increase?

that would be insane process to manage. imagine intra-day price volatility on a gallon of milk at the local supermarket. :rolleyes:


Very interesting to go back and read the comments from the past. 5 years ago people were kicking themselves for not buying, again 2 years ago, now today. When will the fear of missing out end?

[toosahn]

With Facebook there's liquidity.

Where do you go to cash out of your bitcoin and take the proceeds in your fiat currency of choice?


Gemini, Coinbase, Kraken, Bitcoin ATMs

[thegunner]

coinbase fees are hella high man, makes it less viable now :( also the transactions are super slow.

that said, if i sell something and someone wants to pay me in btc...

[toosahn]

coinbase fees are hella high man, makes it less viable now :( also the transactions are super slow.

that said, if i sell something and someone wants to pay me in btc...

Gemini then

[MattTuck]

Whatever its potential use, its clearly in the midst of a insane bubble. Even its biggest boosters couldn't possibly believe these levels are sustainable? Right?

I'm not an insane booster, and I could believe that a single bitcoin is worth well in excess of $1 million. It really isn't hard to arrive at that price.

Look at other scarce things (let's just say real estate). Do I believe that there are atleast 16 million pieces of property in the world that are worth $1 million? I do. That would be something like 0.22% of the world population owning an expensive house. It doesn't seem unreasonable. Factor in the fact that many wealthy people own multiple homes in multiple countries, I could probably make an argument that there are more.

As a store of wealth bitcoin has some advantages and disadvantages over real estate. Namely, you can't live in your bitcoin. But, in a matter of minutes, you could move your bitcoin around the world, or convert it to a local currency. Not easy to do with a house.

Now, I am not saying that $1 million+ is the most likely value for bitcoin. I'm just saying I could believe a world where a single bitcoin is worth that much.

16 million of something is really not that much when spread over the globe. FedEx (since we're in shopping season) has about 268 million shares outstanding, with a value of 218 per share. If you made fedex have only 16million shares, each would be worth $3655.

Just food for thought.

I'm not sure what the appropriate price for a bitcoin is, maybe we are in a bubble. But 10 years from now, I would not be surprised if bitcoin were $1 million +. Also would not be surprised if it were $0.

[Tony T]

(10-12-2017) $5,100

(Today) $10k

I shoulda bought @ $5,100 ;)

[notsew]

I'm not an insane booster, and I could believe that a single bitcoin is worth well in excess of $1 million. It really isn't hard to arrive at that price.

Look at other scarce things (let's just say real estate). Do I believe that there are atleast 16 million pieces of property in the world that are worth $1 million? I do. That would be something like 0.22% of the world population owning an expensive house. It doesn't seem unreasonable. Factor in the fact that many wealthy people own multiple homes in multiple countries, I could probably make an argument that there are more.

As a store of wealth bitcoin has some advantages and disadvantages over real estate. Namely, you can't live in your bitcoin. But, in a matter of minutes, you could move your bitcoin around the world, or convert it to a local currency. Not easy to do with a house.

Now, I am not saying that $1 million+ is the most likely value for bitcoin. I'm just saying I could believe a world where a single bitcoin is worth that much.

16 million of something is really not that much when spread over the globe. FedEx (since we're in shopping season) has about 268 million shares outstanding, with a value of 218 per share. If you made fedex have only 16million shares, each would be worth $3655.

Just food for thought.

I'm not sure what the appropriate price for a bitcoin is, maybe we are in a bubble. But 10 years from now, I would not be surprised if bitcoin were $1 million +. Also would not be surprised if it were $0.

I see the logic, and I don't disagree necessarily, but my skeptical side says that this valuation is illogical, which makes me worry. Those other examples have value beyond being a place to hide/store cash and speculation (although certainly with real estate, that's a significant driver). My computer scientist friend tells me that the underlying problem with Bitcoin's long-term potential is the difficulty with transactions. It simply takes too long. There may be a cryptocurrancy that becomes a standard, but he thinks its unlikely to be bitcoin. If everyone paid with bitcoin at the grocery store you'd be in line for half an hour. If it has barriers to its transaction value then its just a place to park money. The only advantage it has over gold is portability and manufactured scarcity. There's 50 other cryptocurrancies with the same advantage. Bitcoin was just the first one to the table.

That said, what I don't know is a lot, and despite the madness of it, I'm considering sinking a little bit of money into it (or a competitor) just as a lottery ticket (as I should have done when I first considered it years ago!).

[MattTuck]

I see the logic, and I don't disagree necessarily, but my skeptical side says that this valuation is illogical, which makes me worry. Those other examples have value beyond being a place to hide/store cash and speculation (although certainly with real estate, that's a significant driver). My computer scientist friend tells me that the underlying problem with Bitcoin's long-term potential is the difficulty with transactions. It simply takes too long. There may be a cryptocurrancy that becomes a standard, but he thinks its unlikely to be bitcoin. If everyone paid with bitcoin at the grocery store you'd be in line for half an hour. If it has barriers to its transaction value then its just a place to park money. The only advantage it has over gold is portability and manufactured scarcity. There's 50 other cryptocurrancies with the same advantage. Bitcoin was just the first one to the table.

That said, what I don't know is a lot, and despite the madness of it, I'm considering sinking a little bit of money into it (or a competitor) just as a lottery ticket (as I should have done when I first considered it years ago!).

If you have questions about transaction times or transaction costs, I found this article helpful.

https://blog.gridplus.io/money-vs-cryptocurrency-the-real-costs-part-1-33c09dfea671

https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1600/0*pOxA-cwUQZjEMU4X.

Some of the perception about slow transactions comes from the fact that we are actually fairly insulated from the real costs and delays of our transactions.

Yes, whip out your credit card and the transaction seems like it is very fast. But behind the scenes, there is actually some delay in recording it, and processing it. Similar with writing a check. Same with transaction fees. As a consumer, we buy something for 100 and we're done with it. But the merchant only gets $97.50 after fees.

Scaling bitcoin is definitely a challenge. I'm not sure it will ever become something that you transact with on a daily basis. I'm not sure that we need a record of every small transaction in the world kept in cryptographically secure ledger. On the other hand, if it can be used to transfer larger sums of money (say a weekly paycheck) there could be value to people who do not have bank accounts, or people who need to send money to family overseas that currently pay high rates.

Again, this is just food for thought. Clearly, a lot of people are getting into it now for speculative reasons... trying to get rich quickly. Perhaps the price is justified, perhaps not. But, I wouldn't dismiss it at this point just based on price. There is some real technical innovation here. We don't really know if that innovation will pan out or if it will collapse under its own weight.

Also, Aswath Domadaran had a blogpost a few weeks ago talking about bitcoin, and made a compelling argument that it cannot be valued. It can be priced. Much like a currency or a collectible, there is no cashflow associated with owning the asset like there is with a stock or bond. As such, he argues there is no way to calculate an intrinsic value for bitcoin in the way you can with a stock.

[Louis]

Also, Aswath Domadaran had a blogpost a few weeks ago talking about bitcoin, and made a compelling argument that it cannot be valued. It can be priced. Much like a currency or a collectible, there is no cashflow associated with owning the asset like there is with a stock or bond. As such, he argues there is no way to calculate an intrinsic value for bitcoin in the way you can with a stock.


It's been a quite a while since I was in b-school, but I'm pretty sure that there are quite a few companies that are actively traded that don't show positive cash flow and haven't for a while. I suppose for both those companies and Bitcoin it's all a matter of future expectations.

[MattTuck]

It's been a quite a while since I was in b-school, but I'm pretty sure that there are quite a few companies that are actively traded that don't show positive cash flow and haven't for a while. I suppose for both those companies and Bitcoin it's all a matter of future expectations.

With a stock, the value is still determined by expectations about future cashflows (and other stuff, but this is a simplification). Even if a company has never made money, or isn't making money now, the market can still have expectations about real positive cashflows that will occur in the future.

The general idea of investing is to calculate a firm's value, and then compare that value to the current price of the stock. If the value is higher than the current price, buy the stock and wait for the market to accurately price the stock to reflect your opinion. Sell stock when the price exceeds your calculation of value.

As one might argue, owning a bitcoin doesn't entitle you to any stream of cash flows. So it cannot be valued like a stream of cashflows.

Here is the link to Damodoran's video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8iNeXCAM_Ik

[cinema]

Watched history being made last night as 600btc buy wall got eaten up in seconds. Very thankful for a small investment I made over 3 years ago. I think i'll pick up one of those Vanillas now. cheers friends.

[notsew]

Also, Aswath Domadaran had a blogpost a few weeks ago talking about bitcoin, and made a compelling argument that it cannot be valued. It can be priced. Much like a currency or a collectible, there is no cashflow associated with owning the asset like there is with a stock or bond. As such, he argues there is no way to calculate an intrinsic value for bitcoin in the way you can with a stock.

This makes perfect sense to me. As far as I can tell its gold with less barriers to transactions basically (i.e., you don't have to have a place to store a bar). But then were talking about a scarce resource that we've decided to place value in essentially because it is shiny (and all the historical connotations that go along with it), and bitcoin doesn't have that.

The post about transaction times and costs was interesting. The thing that puts bitcoin at a disadvantage (processing time wise) is the lack of intermediary to facilitate transactions. But isn't that the whole point of bitcoin? (this isn't rhetorical, I don't know). In terms of processing large payments, like a paycheck, wouldn't it make more sense for a clearing house to adopt a similar technology more than using the highly volatile bitcoin for such a transaction? Isn't the blockchain technology the real breakthrough here? The value of a bitcoin could change dramatically just in the time it takes to process, that's pretty risky for something like your paycheck. And then it still has to be converted to a fiat currency to be used for day to day transactions.

I'm having trouble wrapping my head around its purpose beyond speculation. Thinking about it as a comparison to gold, or something else similar, I also can't see it behaving like gold does when the market goes bear.

This is an interesting discussion, I don't think I've really thought it through before. I'll have to watch that video and read up some more on it.

[54ny77]

it is the epitome of a bubble.

so much for the initial idea of it being a currency....:rolleyes:

the only other currency that swings so wildly (albeit in the opposite direction!) is from one of the banana republics or some other 3rd world military or puppet dictatorship.

mattuck's posting of domodoran videos gave me cold sweats.....

i had a few classes with him. great to listen in on as spectator for intellectual curiosity, but brutal to internalize the micro details and then get tested on it.



I'm having trouble wrapping my head around its purpose beyond speculation.

[MattTuck]

Watched history being made last night as 600btc buy wall got eaten up in seconds. Very thankful for a small investment I made over 3 years ago. I think i'll pick up one of those Vanillas now. cheers friends.

Nice!


This makes perfect sense to me. As far as I can tell its gold with less barriers to transactions basically (i.e., you don't have to have a place to store a bar). But then were talking about a scarce resource that we've decided to place value in essentially because it is shiny (and all the historical connotations that go along with it), and bitcoin doesn't have that.

The post about transaction times and costs was interesting. The thing that puts bitcoin at a disadvantage (processing time wise) is the lack of intermediary to facilitate transactions. But isn't that the whole point of bitcoin? (this isn't rhetorical, I don't know). In terms of processing large payments, like a paycheck, wouldn't it make more sense for a clearing house to adopt a similar technology more than using the highly volatile bitcoin for such a transaction? Isn't the blockchain technology the real breakthrough here? The value of a bitcoin could change dramatically just in the time it takes to process, that's pretty risky for something like your paycheck. And then it still has to be converted to a fiat currency to be used for day to day transactions.

I'm having trouble wrapping my head around its purpose beyond speculation. Thinking about it as a comparison to gold, or something else similar, I also can't see it behaving like gold does when the market goes bear.

This is an interesting discussion, I don't think I've really thought it through before. I'll have to watch that video and read up some more on it.

Yes, a big part of the early allure of bitcoin was the notion it was a decentralized network that did not require you to trust others in order to transact.

The intermediaries in normal financial transactions are not costless. They earn something for making the transactions seem faster. At some level you are paying for that, even if you do not realize it.

In bitcoin, it is just stripped bare. You have direct access to the payment system and the fee structure is visible to all. Obviously, positives and negatives associated with that. Not having trust in the other parties does make it much more tedious, and requires a better technical understanding of things that you don't need when you pull out your visa card.

Sometimes they talk about the idea of 'friction'... for the average person, there is still quite a bit of friction in bitcoin.

As far as the use cases you ponder, I think you're right. You cannot use something that is going up 10% or down 10% each week (or day!) as your unit of account. It just doesn't make sense. So, for sure, the volatility is a concern. I think the hope (of people who are holding bitcoin) is that the price rises to a high level and then settles down. Right now, you have incremental purchasers coming in that (presumably) are buying bitcoin for the first time. I'm inferring that from CoinBase's statements in the past few weeks that they're opening new accounts at an alarming rate.

So all that demand has to be satisfied with the existing supply, which I understand to actually be pretty small. And you get what we have here, which is rapid price increase. Once we run out of new people coming into the bitcoin world, demand will drop, then we'll see what the market really thinks of it. Of course, let's just say we're talking about the richest 1% of the world owning these things in meaningful quantities. That's still 70 million people possibly wanting in on the party. So, maybe there will continue to be new folks coming in for quite some time.

I should add, I'm not an expert, and I'm not for or against bitcoin. I just think it is interesting.

[MattTuck]

mattuck's posting of domodoran videos gave me cold sweats.....

i had a few classes with him. great to listen in on as spectator for intellectual curiosity, but brutal to internalize the micro details and then get tested on it.

He visited my Valuation class when I was a student (he is friends with the professor). Seemed like a really nice guy, actually.

Maybe he was different with his own students :help:

[thegunner]

Yes, a big part of the early allure of bitcoin was the notion it was a decentralized network that did not require you to trust others in order to transact.

there was always the intrinsic trust that every node was acting in their own self interest (i.e. monetarily driven to solve and attach to the right block chain), so it's not quite that you don't have to trust others, it's that you have to trust others to have no ulterior / non-financial-gains interests.

but yes, agreed to the rest of your post ;)

[cinema]

that last hourly candle was absolutely beautiful and blew people the hell out. there was a $100,000,000 market sell on bitfinex during 15 min

[redir]

I still don't get it. :confused::crap::help:

[summilux]

Over and above the "true" value of BitCoin and the other alts, I find the psychology of this market truly incredible. Today looks like a rinse and repeat. Hopefully no one here is getting burned.

[cfox]

My friend and I built a rig to mine Litecoins a few years ago. It was a fun project, but it wasn't long before the difficulty grew to where our rig could not break even given power usage. I didn't accumulate many, and I hadn't given it much thought since LTC tanked shortly after we pulled the plug, but now that it's ~$90/LTC, I need to spend some time digging around old computers looking for my Litecoin wallet. I really don't remember how many I had. I also remembered an old Coinbase account I had...I logged in for the first time in 3 years to find I had a quarter of a BTC in there. Pretty funny, that .25/btc was worth $145 dollars the last time I logged in.

[superbowlpats]

I still don't get it. :confused::crap::help:

you're not the only one:eek::help:

[cinema]

If anyone here works at a blockchain focused or cryptocurrency involved business please PM me. I have received a job offer from a crypto mining startup company and have some questions. I could provide some compensation for your knowledge.

Thanks!
Mike

[MattTuck]

If anyone here works at a blockchain focused or cryptocurrency involved business please PM me. I have received a job offer from a crypto mining startup company and have some questions. I could provide some compensation for your knowledge.

Thanks!
Mike

Can't help you out with your question, but congrats!

I hope the offer isn't at Tezos ;)

[nate2351]

I hope the offer isn't at Tezos ;)

or Bit Connect....

Coinbase has over 75 positions open, which is as many dev positions as all of Nordstroms last I checked. It's a brave new world out there.

[efuentes]

After being a fan for several years of the "Singularity" idea, I find it really interesting how more and more tech have become too complicated for most users. Brave new world indeed ...

[nate2351]

After being a fan for several years of the "Singularity" idea, I find it really interesting how more and more tech have become too complicated for most users. Brave new world indeed ...

Blockchain technology holds a lot of amazing potential, way outside of crypto currency, but most would admit it is not yet ready for mass market consumption. Currently you can send dollars(for free) though Apple Pay Cash as opposed to the network fee you would have to pay on any crypto transaction....

[efuentes]

e-currencies really pose a problem for the traditional transfer of value business on an international scale, we are talking deep pockets people that wont give up it´s revenue cow easily. Put that together with the coming energy and transportation disruption that will create Tesla´s 175k truck with a 1 MegaWatt battery and big money might start to get jumpy.

[ojingoh]

Currently you can send dollars(for free) though Apple Pay Cash as opposed to the network fee you would have to pay on any crypto transaction....

You have to own an iPhone.

[nate2351]

e-currencies really pose a problem for the traditional transfer of value business on an international scale, we are talking deep pockets people that wont give up it´s revenue cow easily. Put that together with the coming energy and transportation disruption that will create Tesla´s 175k truck with a 1 MegaWatt battery and big money might start to get jumpy.

At this point big money might be the only ones who can afford to operate those trucks.

Next week (Monday the 11th) Wall Street can start shorting in the new Bitcoin futures market, things might get interesting sooner than we think.

[nate2351]

You have to own an iPhone.

Don't be surprised to see an Android counter part launching soon.

[MattTuck]

At this point big money might be the only ones who can afford to operate those trucks.

Next week (Monday the 11th) Wall Street can start shorting in the new Bitcoin futures market, things might get interesting sooner than we think.

I haven't read enough to know about the new futures markets, but is there some limit on the notional amount of futures that can be taken out for bitcoin?

In other words, could 20 different parties each go and short 1 million bitcoins? Such that, the only way to cover all the shorts is to just buy offsetting long future contracts to close out the positions?

There are lots of games played in the gold market around paper contracts vs. physical gold. I wonder if we'll see the same thing here.

[cinema]

I haven't read enough to know about the new futures markets, but is there some limit on the notional amount of futures that can be taken out for bitcoin?

In other words, could 20 different parties each go and short 1 million bitcoins? Such that, the only way to cover all the shorts is to just buy offsetting long future contracts to close out the positions?

There are lots of games played in the gold market around paper contracts vs. physical gold. I wonder if we'll see the same thing here.

I could be wrong here, but btc futs will be nondeliverable, cash settled. So while the investor may be able to 'short' it, they wouldn't really being doing so except on paper. of course those orders are made available to people to see and react to via order flow, so it could have an effect, but MM's would probably be buying spot btc to hedge the bet anyway, driving the price higher in the near term. a short contract would still rely on people shorting btc spot to profit.

to be completely honest, RIP to anyone shorting spot btc. one of my favorite follows: https://twitter.com/bitmexrekt

[FlashUNC]

Don't be surprised to see an Android counter part launching soon.

It already exists. You can send money for free through GMail.

[verticaldoug]

I haven't read enough to know about the new futures markets, but is there some limit on the notional amount of futures that can be taken out for bitcoin?

In other words, could 20 different parties each go and short 1 million bitcoins? Such that, the only way to cover all the shorts is to just buy offsetting long future contracts to close out the positions?

There are lots of games played in the gold market around paper contracts vs. physical gold. I wonder if we'll see the same thing here.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/bitcoin-futures.html

Each bitcoin future will be 5 coins. Position Limit in Spot is 1,000 contracts. So 5,000 bit coins or $75,000,000 USD

I expect some people have front loaded the futures listing and already bought BTC. So once the futures list, they will look to sell futures to lock in their profit and have a cash&carry position.

I'll be very surprised if futures trade at a premium to spot.

If you are a professional and since the bitcoin market is unregulated, it will be interesting to see how professionals what to play the expiration print. It really will be how much execution risk they want.

The upside to the futures vs the BTC is you can actually get all your money from the exchange . I think all the current BTC exchanges severely restrict the amount of money you withdraw from your account. If I am wrong here, someone please correct my ignorance.

[54ny77]

anything that goes from zero to an incredibly insane # over a pretty short timeframe, with nothing really to show for it other than people wanting to buy it, just smells of a giant game of musical chairs.

i read something the other day that if you invested $100 in bitcoin 5-6 years ago, it'd be worth $3 million today.

mind boggling.

governments could stop it in a stroke of a pen. that's a pretty big risk.

[bobswire]

https://grist.org/article/bitcoin-could-cost-us-our-clean-energy-future/

[thegunner]

governments could stop it in a stroke of a pen. that's a pretty big risk.

i'm not sure i fully agree with that statement (but i may very well be missing how a goverment could completely regulate a decentralized blockchain). china has tried repeatedly to impose controls over the exchanges - as they're more or less used to move money out of the country - but that's only caused a bit of a hassle in terms of mobility. i know more than a few chinese nationals who still have quite a bit of btc on their hands.

[MattTuck]

A government could probably clamp down on the exchanges, which could seriously diminish the value if people are unable to convert their bitcoin holdings back into cash.

I think it is harder to see how a single government could seriously impact the actual bitcoin network/blockchain.

[thegunner]

A government could probably clamp down on the exchanges, which could seriously diminish the value if people are unable to convert their bitcoin holdings back into cash.

I think it is harder to see how a single government could seriously impact the actual bitcoin network/blockchain.

right, but what i'm saying is, in theory that would be how it plays out:

regulation => difficulty in conversion back

but in practice, it doesn't seem to have made much of a dent when you can sell on an exchange in SK for $17k per coin and convert won back to yuan.

[MattTuck]

right, but what i'm saying is, in theory that would be how it plays out:

regulation => difficulty in conversion back

but in practice, it doesn't seem to have made much of a dent when you can sell on an exchange in SK for $17k per coin and convert won back to yuan.

Agreed. I was just trying to expand on 54ny77's point about what governments could do with the stroke of a pen.

[jlwdm]

anything that goes from zero to an incredibly insane # over a pretty short timeframe, with nothing really to show for it other than people wanting to buy it, just smells of a giant game of musical chairs.

i read something the other day that if you invested $100 in bitcoin 5-6 years ago, it'd be worth $3 million today.

mind boggling.

governments could stop it in a stroke of a pen. that's a pretty big risk.

A real world example is the Winklevoss twins. They invested $11m in 2013 and have held it all. Now worth about $1.5b.

Jeff

[thegunner]

Agreed. I was just trying to expand on 54ny77's point about what governments could do with the stroke of a pen.

ah :) i wish i had enough coin to make future regulation a legitimate concern, i think for those folks, they're already cashing out just fine.

[efuentes]

Hopefully people will realize that ecoins are not an investment device but a value transfer scheme, that´s when will ecoins will start to become usefull.

[unterhausen]

I bet the guy that recycled the laptop with $7 million worth of BTC on it when it was $300 per is really kicking himself now. Threw away $50 million.

Actually, I'm thinking a lot of people mined a BTC or two and have never done anything with them are trying to figure out what hard drive they are on and what the password is.

[rallizes]

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/dec/07/bitcoin-64m-cryptocurrency-stolen-hack-attack-marketplace-nicehash-passwords

not a bad haul

$64 million stolen

[verticaldoug]

I bet the guy that recycled the laptop with $7 million worth of BTC on it when it was $300 per is really kicking himself now. Threw away $50 million.

Actually, I'm thinking a lot of people mined a BTC or two and have never done anything with them are trying to figure out what hard drive they are on and what the password is.

You are a million on paper, but you still need to find a way to convert and withdraw into a fiat currency, or find someone who will swap a real world object for your bitcoin.

I think the cash is gone. Consumed by the electricity spent to generate the hash.

[MattTuck]

No idea if this is real, saw it on reddit a day or so ago. makes me chuckle.

[cinema]

governments could stop it in a stroke of a pen. that's a pretty big risk.

that's when you buy more.

[cloudguy]

I think the cash is gone. Consumed by the electricity spent to generate the hash.

So mining for Bitcoins is now effectively the same as mining for coal:
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/12/2/16724786/bitcoin-mining-energy-electricity

[MattTuck]

So mining for Bitcoins is now effectively the same as mining for coal:
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/12/2/16724786/bitcoin-mining-energy-electricity

If the costs become too high, hashers will stop hashing. If you are using a renewable source, or if co2 cost is internalized, it shouldn't matter anyway. There is plenty of electricity that could be going to better uses. Wonder how much is used to power video games and tv watching.

[martl]

governments could stop it in a stroke of a pen. that's a pretty big risk.
I understand they tried very hard for a couple of years now.

There is much to be said for a non-government controlled alternative currency. Possibly a lot against it, as well.
As Mr. Karpeles of MtGox cheated me out of the 25 BC i once mined and which now easily would pay for the appartment i'm living in, i'm out of the game.

Bitcoin currently is and never was a real currency - its course was much too volatile. Care paying for a pizza the same amount of BC that could be worth a car (or F*all) a week from now? i don't.
It's a gamblers toy, and if you arrive to the game *now*, you gotte be really smart and fast to make any profit.

[54ny77]

i'm not referring to the concept of blockchain itself. i'm referring to the intermediary, the companies who are domiciled and reside here like coinbase, etc., and are the "banks" of the bitcoin.

with a stroke of a pen, they could be regulated into oblivion. or they say f.u. and are de facto forced offshore, and then what?

totally agree with what your'e saying. the idea of it as a currency has gone by way of the dodo bird and is now pure speculation. as if the local pizza joint on the corner will have real-time bitcoin pricing for a large with mushroom, artichoke hearts and olives...:D

nope!

I understand they tried very hard for a couple of years now.

There is much to be said for a non-government controlled alternative currency. Possibly a lot against it, as well.
As Mr. Karpeles of MtGox cheated me out of the 25 BC i once mined and which now easily would pay for the appartment i'm living in, i'm out of the game.

Bitcoin currently is and never was a real currency - its course was much too volatile. Care paying for a pizza the same amount of BC that could be worth a car (or F*all) a week from now? i don't.
It's a gamblers toy, and if you arrive to the game *now*, you gotte be really smart and fast to make any profit.

[Tony T]

Bitcoin Futures now trading.
Bitcoin now at $16,700

[coffeecake]

I sold what fraction of bitcoin I had this weekend. I did not have much skin in the game and the fact that the exchange I used, Coinbase, crashed every time traffic escalated spurred this decision.

All in all, my BTC increased in value by 30 times since I acquired it in 2013. But as martl put it so nicely, how can bitcoin be a viable currency when it fluctuates in value so much. :confused: (p.s. I have no idea what I'm talking about)

http://www.gifbin.com/bin/272909002.gif

[MattTuck]

30 times isn't too shabby :)

I would not be surprised if we head down to $100 again in the near future.

I just heard from a guy who has made $1 million this year day trading these digital coins.... definitely reminiscent of the dotcom bubble.

I did some back of the envelope calculations just to sanity check what some people are saying. Some people are saying bitcoin could be like digital gold. Others are saying it could be a currency. Ok, there is about 1.89 trillion dollars of gold that has been mined to date. And about 69 trillion dollars worth of currency around the globe.

If you believe bitcoin will reach the levels of gold, you arrive at a price around 136,000 per btc, about 8x current price. If you believe it will disrupt and replace all currencies in the world, it could be 3.3 million per btc.

I think both of those are incredibly optimistic, but let's say you buy the gold argument. That means if you put $1,000 into bitcoin now, your best case upside is making 8 times your money... or $8,000. The days of people getting in with $1,000 and becoming millionaires are almost definitely over unless you believe the extreme story around global disruption and replacement of existing currencies.

You can only double something so many times before it can't grow anymore.

PS. that is great episode. In unrelated Seinfeld trivia, did you see the interview with Brian Cranston about playing Dr. Whatley, and making Jerry laugh?

[unterhausen]

my son bought $100 worth of litecoin. He just told me he sold $100 worth, and still has $100 in litecoin. Pretty entertaining way to gamble. I tried to tell him just to leave it the whole amount in there, but I guess the money from 10 hours of teaching math to football players is worth something to him.

[nate2351]

Litecoin still has room to grow and the network supporting it can scale in ways Bitcoin can't which makes it more like "money". I think that's helping lead to its growth where Bitcoin has slowed. I play around trading with Litecoin and have had some great success with it.

Whether or not any crypto currency actually succeeds I think the technology behind it will be used more and more in the years to come, it's checks too many boxes not to.

[Tony T]

my son bought $100 worth of litecoin. He just told me he sold $100 worth, and still has $100 in litecoin. Pretty entertaining way to gamble. I tried to tell him just to leave it the whole amount in there, but I guess the money from 10 hours of teaching math to football players is worth something to him.

He cashed in 50% of his chips and still has his original bet on the table.
Sounds like a smart kid to me.

[Tony T]

Call me skeptical, but anyone could see that this was not sustainable in 1637:

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/12/8/48200183-1512760533408966.jpg

Look familiar?
(How could anyone look at this chart and put new money into bitcoin?)

[Tony T]

Coinbase is driving this bubble in bitcoin: One of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchanges Just Added 100,000 Users in a Single Day (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-02/bitcoin-exchange-added-100-000-users-in-a-day-as-price-exploded)


Coinbase allows anyone with a credit card to buy/invest/gamble/flip bitcoin.
No credit checks needed to buy
Now with future contracts, there is a way to short bitcoin (which will drive up prices in the short run)

Sounds to me a lot like the 2000 internet bubble and the 2007 housing bubble.

[R3awak3n]

I just saw my $800 investment go to $1600 in a week. I have had xrp for a while though and should have bought some. Oh well. This is gambling but $800 is not enough that if I loose it I will loose much sleep about. Wake me up in 10 years.

[Tony T]

I just saw my $800 investment go to $1600 in a week.

I'll put a $25 chip on the table — lets see if I can also make a 100% return by next week :banana:

[nate2351]

Call me skeptical, but anyone could see that this was not sustainable in 1637:

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/12/8/48200183-1512760533408966.jpg

Look familiar?
(How could anyone look at this chart and put new money into bitcoin?)

Not to rain on the parade but you could make the same argument for the Us economy as a whole. There is a lot of money floating around in the world right now and people are finding creative ways to spend it. Look at the growth of the NASDAQ.

[MattTuck]

As I said in my earlier post, I mostly agree that the running room left for bitcoin is somewhat limited.

Best case scenarios put your expected returns from bitcoin at 5-20x your money. Still a ridiculous return compared to traditional assets, but you're not going to become a millionaire by investing $1,000 like the people that got in early.

Even those 5x returns (from current levels) require you to believe some pretty big changes are taking place. Maybe another better solution (litecoin, ethereum, tezos, ripple, etc.) comes along and is better than bitcoin and you can get bigger returns from being in earlier... who knows.

Maybe it is tulipmania 2.0, or maybe it is dotcom bubble. Difference being that tulips were all hype and their value basically crashed to zero, dotcom bubble was a situation where valuations got way ahead of themselves, but directionally the market got it right. Essentially everyone uses the internet today. The technology is useful and valuable and has unlocked new functionality and allowed new business models and created huge amounts of wealth. People just got carried away in the beginning. In another 50 years, we'll still probably be using the internet and will be a bigger part of our lives than it is today. 50 years after the tulip bubble, I doubt that tulips had become such an integral part of society.

Maybe cryptos are Tulipmania redux and it will all end in zeros, or maybe it is following the arc of dotcoms... and in 15 years we'll have figured out how to deliver on the promise of this new technology, and all be using bitcoin and ethereum to send money to friends, and do escrow on real estate deals, and save a little as an inflation hedge.

[avalonracing]

Okay... you've convinced me. I'm investing in tulips.

[Tony T]

Not to rain on the parade but you could make the same argument for the Us economy as a whole. There is a lot of money floating around in the world right now and people are finding creative ways to spend it. Look at the growth of the NASDAQ.

I may be naive, and I won't research any further than Wikipedia, but:

In Europe, formal futures markets appeared in the Dutch Republic during the 17th century. Among the most notable centered on the tulip market, at the height of Tulipmania. At the peak of tulip mania, in February 1637, some single tulip bulbs sold for more than 10 times the annual income of a skilled craftsworker. Research is difficult because of the limited economic data from the 1630s—much of which come from biased and very speculative sources. Some modern economists have proposed rational explanations, rather than a speculative mania, for the rise and fall in prices. For example, other flowers, such as the hyacinth, also had high initial prices at the time of their introduction, which immediately fell. The high asset prices may also have been driven by expectations of a parliamentary decree that contracts could be voided for a small cost—thus lowering the risk to buyers.

[nate2351]

Just because the graph looks the same doesn't mean the outcome will be the same.

If we're going to compare bubbles the I'd argue Bitcoin is more like the dot com bubble. Like the dot com bubble it is built around an idea that has a lot of potential. Back then it was the internet and now it's the public blockchain. you could almost argue that, like the dot com, people are betting on the idea more than the product. Bitcoin has it's shortfalls and I could name five other cryptos that work better, but I think we are going to see blockchain technology being used in many applications in the future.

Remember when this was the public opinion of the internet? http://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirvana-185306

[MattTuck]

Just because the graph looks the same doesn't mean the outcome will be the same.

If we're going to compare bubbles the I'd argue Bitcoin is more like the dot com bubble. Like the dot com bubble it is built around an idea that has a lot of potential. Back then it was the internet and now it's the public blockchain. you could almost argue that, like the dot com, people are betting on the idea more than the product. Bitcoin has it's shortfalls and I could name five other cryptos that work better, but I think we are going to see blockchain technology being used in many applications in the future.

Remember when this was the public opinion of the internet? http://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirvana-185306

To be fair, if you invested (in the Nasdaq) at the peak of the dotcom frenzy, it took 15 years to make back your money, which is not an insignificant amount of time to be 'in the red'. :)

Still, I'd like to hear what the other 5 altcoins that are better than bitcoin.

[nate2351]

To be fair, if you invested (in the Nasdaq) at the peak of the dotcom frenzy, it took 15 years to make back your money, which is not an insignificant amount of time to be 'in the red'. :)

Still, I'd like to hear what the other 5 altcoins that are better than bitcoin.

Point taken.

As for altcoins it depends on how you want to use them. Litecoin has great potential for peer-to-peer usage, Ethereum by default is the only thing you can use on Ethereum backed DApps, and Iota is fascinating for internet-of-things usage. There are others that are similar to those.
I think Bitcoin is stuck in old technology that will eventually catch up with it. It has the market cap and the name but trying to use it for anything other that storing value these days is too expensive and slow.

[54ny77]

Only Clarence Beeks knows where Bitcoin is headed.

[notsew]

But an investment in Bitcoin isn't and investment in blockchain. Bitcoin doesn't control that technology. Its just speculation, your not investing in anything except the a bitcoin being worth more money. At least the purchase of dotcom stocks represented a bet on a company (and some of these worked out the second time around). Bitcoin is more like a tulip as far as I can tell.


Just because the graph looks the same doesn't mean the outcome will be the same.

If we're going to compare bubbles the I'd argue Bitcoin is more like the dot com bubble. Like the dot com bubble it is built around an idea that has a lot of potential. Back then it was the internet and now it's the public blockchain. you could almost argue that, like the dot com, people are betting on the idea more than the product. Bitcoin has it's shortfalls and I could name five other cryptos that work better, but I think we are going to see blockchain technology being used in many applications in the future.

Remember when this was the public opinion of the internet? http://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirvana-185306


And boy, that is an entertaining article. So right, and so wrong.

[jimcav]

As I said in my earlier post, I mostly agree that the running room left for bitcoin is somewhat limited.
.

If I understand this long thread I just went through, the number of bitcoins is limited, but they are still being "mined"? Each mining operation is time consuming, and uses considerable (more) computer power with each new coin mined...so as long as there are coins to be found, that should continue to feed the frenzy, and once they are all mined, then it is anyone's guess where equilibrium will be. IF I wanted to buy some fraction of a bit coin for my 11 yr old, is there any calculation to estimate when the last bitcoin will be mined? I'm not sure I understand those shorting it already when there seems to be continued numbers jumping into the game, which should go on until the coins are mined? Or, can you take a short position with a long lead time?

[nate2351]

At current computing power the last bitcoin is expected to be mined ~2140.

[verticaldoug]

At current computing power the last bitcoin is expected to be mined ~2140.

I think computing power has nothing to do with the rate of bit mining. Computing power available just changes the complexity of the hash. More computing power available means the hash becomes more complex so the rate of awards stays constant over time. The award has a step function so periodically it halves. The next time it halves will be in June 2020. On this day, unless the price of bitcoin doubles overnight, the entire network will be unprofitable assuming the network is relatively efficient

Since the difficulty of the hash just requires more computing power, this just corresponds to the price of bitcoin. Higher bitcoin, the more profitable it is to mine, So more computing power joins.

[MattTuck]

If I understand this long thread I just went through, the number of bitcoins is limited, but they are still being "mined"? Each mining operation is time consuming, and uses considerable (more) computer power with each new coin mined...so as long as there are coins to be found, that should continue to feed the frenzy, and once they are all mined, then it is anyone's guess where equilibrium will be. IF I wanted to buy some fraction of a bit coin for my 11 yr old, is there any calculation to estimate when the last bitcoin will be mined? I'm not sure I understand those shorting it already when there seems to be continued numbers jumping into the game, which should go on until the coins are mined? Or, can you take a short position with a long lead time?

So, a couple things.

Bitcoins come into being each time a new block is calculated. The software is designed to make each block take about 10 minutes. At first, the person that calculated a block got a lot of bitcoins as a reward. As time goes by, the amount that you get as a reward for solving a block goes down.

That being said, that is only how new bitcoins come into the system. You can go out and buy an existing bitcoin from someone who currently has one. A lot of people think that mining is something that you can do easily. The reality is, in the beginning folks could buy some decent hardware and run a mining operation (read: run some software on the hardware) but today, that is pretty much dead. If you want to own a bitcoin, you need to go to an exchange (or a person who owns bitcoins) and buy an existing one.

Don't get so hung up on the rate that they're coming into existence. There are about 17million out there now, out of 21 million that will ever exist. So, the rate of inflation is predictable and should be known (and reflected in the price) by market participants.

[jimcav]

as vertical said when the step halving occurs, it doesn't seem the frenzy will continue to double value necessarily, so I don't get how the interest will remain/sustain, but then the whole valuation is a speculation, I just have to think there is some basis for the speculation, such as the limited supply driving the mining, but that is too simplistic. Hard to gamble with college money since I don't understand it well

So, a couple things.

Bitcoins come into being each time a new block is calculated. The software is designed to make each block take about 10 minutes. At first, the person that calculated a block got a lot of bitcoins as a reward. As time goes by, the amount that you get as a reward for solving a block goes down.

That being said, that is only how new bitcoins come into the system. You can go out and buy an existing bitcoin from someone who currently has one. A lot of people think that mining is something that you can do easily. The reality is, in the beginning folks could buy some decent hardware and run a mining operation (read: run some software on the hardware) but today, that is pretty much dead. If you want to own a bitcoin, you need to go to an exchange (or a person who owns bitcoins) and buy an existing one.

Don't get so hung up on the rate that they're coming into existence. There are about 17million out there now, out of 21 million that will ever exist. So, the rate of inflation is predictable and should be known (and reflected in the price) by market participants.

[verticaldoug]

as vertical said when the step halving occurs, it doesn't seem the frenzy will continue to double value necessarily, so I don't get how the interest will remain/sustain, but then the whole valuation is a speculation, I just have to think there is some basis for the speculation, such as the limited supply driving the mining, but that is too simplistic. Hard to gamble with college money since I don't understand it well

http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

This has a lot of the current data for the bitcoin.

If bitcoin becomes viable, I expect the vested interests to amend the rules and increase the issuance of bitcoins. There is no reason for this not to occur.

There are a lot of assumptions on bitcoin, and I suspect many will be proved wrong over time. Even though it is a distributed system, it is a capitalist system. I expect control of the network to become more concentrated over time. The anonymous forces in control of the network are not altruistic, they will work to maximize their own utility.

[MattTuck]

jim,
I'm not sure why you think that the halving of the reward has something to do with the current pricing frenzy. Whatever weird bubble/mania/price appreciation/global acceptance phase/crossing the chasm/etc. phase that we're in has very little to do with the actual number of new bitcoins created each day.

The mining makes money in two ways, first, if you solve a block, you get new bitcoins. second, you collect the transaction fees of all the transactions in that block. So even if there are no more bitcoins to be made, 'miners' can still make money with the transaction fees. nate could probably tell you more about the economics of running a mining operation.


doug,
It is an interesting thesis, that as hashing power continues to agglomerate, that those powers will try to change the system to benefit them more. It isn't hard to see their incentive, but it certainly runs counter to the original idea behind bitcoin. The bitcoin blockchain has already been forked a number of times and this could be another fork. People will vote with their feet and if they think the new system (with bigger rewards for longer) is better, they'll stay with it.

I've read about the shift from proof of work to proof of stake model that some other models have proposed. I tend to think that a truly decentralized system has to have some checks on the concentration of processing power. Not sure, within the existing bitcoin framework, how to accomplish that. With proof of stake, I think it is easier, because you basically put a cap of some percentage of ownership and force decentralization, or adjust the difficulty of the hashing based on the amount you have staked on you.

I do agree there is a tension between economies of scale that the miners are trying to achieve, and the original goals of bitcoin as being a decentralized peer-to-peer payment network.

[verticaldoug]

jim,
I'm not sure why you think that the halving of the reward has something to do with the current pricing frenzy. Whatever weird bubble/mania/price appreciation/global acceptance phase/crossing the chasm/etc. phase that we're in has very little to do with the actual number of new bitcoins created each day.

The mining makes money in two ways, first, if you solve a block, you get new bitcoins. second, you collect the transaction fees of all the transactions in that block. So even if there are no more bitcoins to be made, 'miners' can still make money with the transaction fees. nate could probably tell you more about the economics of running a mining operation.


doug,
It is an interesting thesis, that as hashing power continues to agglomerate, that those powers will try to change the system to benefit them more. It isn't hard to see their incentive, but it certainly runs counter to the original idea behind bitcoin. The bitcoin blockchain has already been forked a number of times and this could be another fork. People will vote with their feet and if they think the new system (with bigger rewards for longer) is better, they'll stay with it.

I've read about the shift from proof of work to proof of stake model that some other models have proposed. I tend to think that a truly decentralized system has to have some checks on the concentration of processing power. Not sure, within the existing bitcoin framework, how to accomplish that. With proof of stake, I think it is easier, because you basically put a cap of some percentage of ownership and force decentralization, or adjust the difficulty of the hashing based on the amount you have staked on you.

I do agree there is a tension between economies of scale that the miners are trying to achieve, and the original goals of bitcoin as being a decentralized peer-to-peer payment network.

For a complex system, your original intent is generally not going to be your result.

I'd think the result of a highly speculative volatile digital asset that is subject to repeated hack attacks to steal it from providers is about as far away from the original intent of bitcoin as you can get.

[Tony T]

I just saw my $800 investment go to $1600 in a week. I have had xrp for a while though and should have bought some. Oh well. This is gambling but $800 is not enough that if I loose it I will loose much sleep about. Wake me up in 10 years.

I'll put a $25 chip on the table — lets see if I can also make a 100% return by next week :banana:

Talk about bad timing on my $25 bet..

[Bruce K]

Yup, BIG drop in Bitcoin valuation today.

Timing is everything.....:eek:

BK

[ultraman6970]

I was thinking last week just to drop 100 bucks in that, good did not do because i would had 50 bucks now :)

NK to blame? all the money they had went to hell due to the new sanctions.

[Tony T]

Coinbase couldn't keep up today:

High traffic
Update - Buys and sells were temporarily unavailable earlier today due to site stability. High volume caused slow performance in one of our databases, and GDAX temporarily entered post-only mode due to availability issues with its REST API (in accordance with its Trading Rules). We have made several improvements and continue to monitor for stability.
Dec 22, 15:49 PST
Update - Buys and sells are currently operational. They were temporarily unavailable during these periods:
8:04 - 9:06 a.m. PST
9:35 - 10:26 a.m. PST
Dec 22, 11:24 PST
Monitoring - Due to today's high traffic, buys and sells may be intermittently offline. We're working on restoring full availability as soon as possible.
Dec 22, 08:36 PST

[azrider]

crikey........

[sales guy]

crikey........

Doesn't help when you have entire countries/governments saying no to cryptocurrency and putting up some serious laws/restrictions.

[MattTuck]

https://i.redd.it/iwl7vz69cea01.gif

[Tickdoc]

https://i.imgur.com/f12Ic0s.jpg

[marsh]

Researchers find that one person likely drove Bitcoin from $150 to $1,000. (https://techcrunch.com/2018/01/15/researchers-finds-that-one-person-likely-drove-bitcoin-from-150-to-1000/)

[Louis]

I wonder how the Winklevoss twins are doing today?

[pbarry]

A guy I know, fellow munipal utility worker for another town, preaches cryptocurrency to me every time I run into him. And tries to sign me up.. He is planning on retiring in 5 years at age 55 with everything riding on this crap game. I always wish him well. :eek:

[unterhausen]

time to buy! It's like a coiled spring!

[Tickdoc]

http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Bitcoin-s-Plunge-Turns-the-Winklevoss-Twins-Into-12504439.php

[Tony T]

I wonder how the Winklevoss twins are doing today?

I hear 2017 was a very good year for both.

[Tony T]

Under $9k:

[Louis]

I just saw today that if you hold any Bitcoins you have to report that on your SF86 form ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_Form_86 ) as a foreign investment if / when the US govt does a background check on you. I suppose there will now be fewer and fewer folks having to do that...

[sailorboy]

http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Bitcoin-s-Plunge-Turns-the-Winklevoss-Twins-Into-12504439.php

OMG! How will they ever survive on $730M??

[Tony T]

Call me skeptical, but anyone could see that this was not sustainable in 1637:

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/12/8/48200183-1512760533408966.jpg

Look familiar?
(How could anyone look at this chart and put new money into bitcoin?)

Looking more like Tulips:

[azrider]

2/5/2018

"Bitcoin is being crushed again - Bitcoin dropped again on Monday, falling below Friday's $8,000, reports Bloomberg. The move came as many US and UK banks banned purchases of cryptocurrencies with their credit cards, says Bloomberg. Amid increased regulation, hacks and Facebook's decision to ban crypto ads, the ban added to fears for the future of the cryptocurrency, which has lost 60% of its value since December's record high of $19,511. Rival cryptocurrencies ripple, ethereum and litecoin also fell on Monday."

[Tony T]

Below $7,000:

[wildboar]

:confused: But dumping all that home equity money into this back in December seemed like such a good idea.

http://tos.mx/tosmx/item?id=SzeizP&image

[Tony T]

1 year bitcoin chart and 3 year Tulip Chart.
I know that this is not apples to apples, but…

[echappist]

Well, who cares about bitcoin. The real market just took a dump to lighten itself. By dump i mean a correction. Down 4% last week and 4% today...

[kppolich]

Well, who cares about bitcoin. The real market just took a dump to lighten itself. By dump i mean a correction. Down 4% last week and 4% today...

Bought a little today

"I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." - WB

[Tony T]

Well, who cares about bitcoin. The real market just took a dump to lighten itself. By dump i mean a correction. Down 4% last week and 4% today...

DOW still + for 2018.

Need to keep what's happening over the past 2 days in perspective.
Here's a 1 year chart of the DOW

[echappist]

Bought a little today

"I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." - WB

I may buy another BrkB share when the market tumbles a bit more.

Only thing i regret is not rebalancing in January, but that's moot now. Now i'll just add a few more % in favor of equities, like what you have done..

[Tony T]

"I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." - WB

I guess WB was selling in 2017 ;)
(5,000 point gain in 2017)

[likebikes]

bump, bitcoin @ $6690 now

[azrider]

Bitcoin @$9300


BUY BUY BUY

[SPOKE]

What’s the latest going on in the crypto currency world??

[Bruce K]

Around $7,750.00 today.

BK

[likebikes]

BUY BUY BUY
!

[Mr. Pink]

https://www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Roubini%20Testimony%2010-11-18.pdf

[joosttx]

I bought some today

[likebikes]

BUY BUY BUY

!

[yinzerniner]

https://www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Roubini%20Testimony%2010-11-18.pdf

Went to a party at his 4 floor rooftop penthouse a few years ago, where the average height and age of the female guests was 5'-10" and 24, respectively.

The man is wise and sage and his words should be taken as gospel!

[Burning Pines]

Went to a party at his 4 floor rooftop penthouse a few years ago, where the average height and age of the female guests was 5'-10" and 24, respectively

Wow sounds like a great guy

[verticaldoug]

Wow sounds like a great guy

Dr. Doom is a pretty funny guy, but I do feel like he has milked the 2008 Dr. Doom claim to fame for too long. It reminds me of Elaine Gazarelli and claiming to call the crash in 1987.

However, that does not mean he is wrong on crypto.

I can see the value of a central blockchain for your digital life where if anyone wanted to access your data, you'd have to grant them permission. . . But that doesn't need to be privately controlled with the ponzi of mining. Estonia has already implemented some of this in e-Estonia. They have experimented with blockchain, but found it cheaper and easier to just use standard databases.

[cash05458]

Hey Admins...seriously? a 28 page ongoing thread thing going on forever about how folks have some problem with a member and then mention a few things about currency? Having fun? Just fantastic....let it go already! The things that get shut down jack fast and this? Come on...

[verticaldoug]

Hey Admins...seriously? a 28 page ongoing thread thing going on forever about how folks have some problem with a member and then mention a few things about currency? Having fun? Just fantastic....let it go already! The things that get shut down jack fast and this? Come on...

Actually, its a humorous thread on the insanity of markets. Remember the context, when this thread was started, bitcoin was $90. Today, it is at $6220. So yeah, that investment is working out pretty well. . .

Now for the poor buggers who paid $19,511 on 12/18/17, yeah it's not so great.

Who knows in 2023, maybe it is at zero, maybe it is at $429,000.

and I still think tulips smell nice.

[cash05458]

Actually, its a humorous thread on the insanity of markets. Remember the context, when this thread was started, bitcoin was $90. Today, it is at $6220. So yeah, that investment is working out pretty well. . .

Now for the poor buggers who paid $19,511 on 12/18/17, yeah it's not so great.

Who knows in 2023, maybe it is at zero, maybe it is at $429,000.

and I still think tulips smell nice.


ok and I do get you...also tho if you go thru the thread there are lots of folks talking about Ray and giving quotes, giving old links from him and implying he is some sorta nut that have nothing to do with finances...my point is this: threads are shut down fast if it looks at all dangerous and this one just seems to go on and on...I know Ray and he is a good guy...maybe folks here decided they didnt like him...I have no idea...but it surprises me via the usual standard of being kind to one another...do yourself a favor and try to post something about politics and folks start arguing...it will be shut down faster than anything...so this one seems particularly mean to me. But what do I know as I am not really one of the guys.

[verticaldoug]

Cash I hear what you are saying and don't disagree. This thread is quite old and somehow survives. I think it is a good thread. After Sandy Hook which was close to home to a lot of people on this thread, Guns became taboo. 2016, when you know who must not be named was elected, politics became too heated. If you need a fix of crazy like I do from time to time, just go to REDDIT.
I hope we can keep old threads like this going, it's humbling to see how hard it is to forecast the future.

D

[Scuzzer]

How about a practical use for this thread. A few years ago I cashed out a position in bodog/bovada that resulted in me having around bitcoin or so.
It used to be worth around $20,000 but now it's worth about 7 grand. I always set my limit at buying a new bike if I got under 200 lbs, I'm a huge guy, offensive lineman type guy that currently sits at arounds 230 lbs.

I'm getting old, not sure if I'll ever hit below 200 lbs until they incinerate my body after death. As a 53 year old man can I expect, or hope, my current bitcoin position will improve or should I just take the profits as a stupidly light bike?

One extra piece of info: I've got non excercise related atrial fib. Waiting for it to get bad enough to do an ablation.

Last thought, how can NJ get 180 million dollars of sports gambling last month but somehow I can't play poker at home. Discuss.

[Tony T]

One week and one year charts:

[unterhausen]

I feel like the problems plaguing bitcoin are structural. As time goes on, you are going to see more and more people being wiped out due to theft. And the energy use is ridiculous. The time it takes to actually conduct a transaction is getting longer and longer. I can't see any reason to hold onto it at this point.

[Tony T]

.

[Tony T]

NYT: Remember Bitcoin? Some Investors Might Want to Forget (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/27/technology/bitcoin-cryptocurrency-crash.html)
Dec. 27, 2018
For a few sweet months of 2018, all of Silicon Valley was wrapped up in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and a related technology called the blockchain. Not anymore.Ints Kalnins/Reuters


For a few sweet months of 2018, all of Silicon Valley was wrapped up in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and a related technology called the blockchain. Not anymore.Ints Kalnins/Reuters
PALO ALTO, Calif. — Last year around this time, a toy called a cryptokitty sold for $170,000. A real estate agent remade himself as CoinDaddy, producing cryptocurrency-themed music videos. The man behind a company called Ripple became for a moment richer than Mark Zuckerberg. Kids barely out of high school were buying Lamborghinis because of a crypto meme. Experts went on CNBC to say Bitcoin was going to reach $100,000 per coin.

For a few sweet months of 2018, all of Silicon Valley was wrapped up in frenzied easy money and a fantasy of remaking the world order with cryptocurrencies and a related technology called the blockchain. A flood of joy hit the Bay Area. The New York Times ran with the trend in an article with the headline “Everyone Is Getting Hilariously Rich and You’re Not.” It was temporarily true.

And just as the American public had been given every possible blockchain explainer that could be written, the whole thing collapsed. The bubble popped.

Today the price of Bitcoin — $19,783 last December — is $3,810. Litecoin was $366 a coin; it’s now $30. Ethereum was $1,400 in January; today it’s $130.

One recent crypto holiday party offered “broken Lambo dreams and an open bar to drown your sorrows in.”

This December closes out cryptocurrency’s most exciting year, ending in a terrible, sober headache of a winter.

At the meetups and the work spaces that remain, those who have stayed are calling this “the winter of crypto.” Believers say this is only “the trough of disillusionment,” pointing to a chart that posits all new technology goes through a similar trough before exploding into inevitable glory.

Those still chipping away at crypto dreams insist that this is all a good thing because only the serious ones, the true crypto believers, remain.

“It’s painful to lose money, but it’s a necessary step,” said Robert Neivert, an investor with the venture capital firm 500 Startups. “2018 was about moving from hype to product.”

The computing power needed to “mine” a Bitcoin or other cryptocurrency is now sometimes costing more than that coin is worth. This container at the Coin Mint facility holds 672 miners.Gabriela Bhaskar for The New York Times


The computing power needed to “mine” a Bitcoin or other cryptocurrency is now sometimes costing more than that coin is worth. This container at the Coin Mint facility holds 672 miners.Gabriela Bhaskar for The New York Times
This year, the blockchain industry — a subset of the cryptocurrency industry that would very much like to live on its own — went through a Cambrian explosion. But first, an explanation of the blockchain: A blockchain is a relatively new kind of database that was initially introduced with Bitcoin. It is not the digital currency. It is the underlying technology that helps manage the currency. Most important, it is decentralized so no one person, government or business controls it.

Blockchain became a solution for everything — blockchain for journalism, for pot, for dentists. At the kernel of it all was real technological progress and a growing understanding that this decentralized technology could transform financial systems. But the excitement spun out of control.

Even adding the word “blockchain” made stock soar. When Long Island Iced Tea Company changed its name to Long Blockchain Company, its stock went up 500 percent in a day. Scammers flooded the space, launching dubious new investment schemes called “initial coin offerings.”

The computing power needed to “mine” a Bitcoin or other cryptocurrency is now sometimes costing more than that coin is worth. Mines — actually, they are electricity-needy data centers — are shutting down. Images of electronics piled up on street corners are going viral. As demand for Bitcoin has dwindled, Bitcoin’s algorithm has adjusted and the coin has become easier to mine.

But this is actually good, crypto experts argue.

“The fact that miners are shutting down and difficulty is decreasing is a feature, not a bug, of bitcoin’s design,” the venture capitalist Arianna Simpson wrote on Twitter.

Some in the cryptocurrency business would just like the world to know that there are still people working on it. Julian Spediacci, a cryptocurrency investor in San Francisco with his twin brother, James, said he would like people to know that he is still alive and identifies as a HODLer, or someone who is not selling despite market fluctuations.

“A lot of people are reaching out, and they want to find out what happened to us, and if we’re still alive, so it’d be great to clarify that there are a lot of OG HODLers,” Mr. Spediacci said, using language common in the crypto industry to indicate he would remain an investor.

“I think we’re nearing a bottom,” his brother said.

Some of the friends they made have left town. The meetups are quieter. The most recent video from the community’s primary musical voice, CoinDaddy, né Arya Bahmanyar, is set to the tune of Beatles hit “Yesterday.”

But the Spediacci brothers continue. They say they are starting a new hedge fund. And that weekend there would be a holiday party at a new blockchain incubator, Starfish, run by Alicia Ferratusco. An incubator is a space where a group of start-ups work together, in this case working on blockchain technology.

“It’s called Starfish because when you cut off the leg of the starfish, it can grow back,” Julian Spediacci said.

Not everyone is struggling in the downturn. For lawyers, it is a new gold rush.

“Now that the market dropped, everyone is getting sued,” said Chante Eliaszadeh, a law student and the president of a blockchain law club called Blockchain at Berkeley Law.

In headier times, a Bitcoin sign was seen in a window in Toronto.Mark Blinch/Reuters

In headier times, a Bitcoin sign was seen in a window in Toronto.Mark Blinch/Reuters
She said the legal scene is pretty exciting right now. As the Securities and Exchange Commission cracks down, some scammers are trying to escape to Bali or Malta, where regulations are more lax.

At one holiday party in Palo Alto this year, the theme was “real.”

Organizers had pasted the motto — “Real People, Real Money, Real Deals” — on the walls, on boards, on slide shows and handouts.

Moderating a panel was Radhika Iyengar-Emens, a founding partner at a venture firm that specializes in cryptocurrency and blockchain start-ups called StarChain Ventures.

“I think we’re going to see a lot of real use cases,” Ms. Iyengar-Emens said. “And these guys will be here for those very real use cases.”

A use case would be a regular consumer’s being able to use a cryptocurrency to do something other than make a speculative investment.

The audience sat in folding white chairs. The snacks were Ritz Bits.

“What is QuarkChain?” QuarkChain’s founder and chief executive, Qi Zhou, asked the audience. “Next generation blockchain.”

Kerry Washington, a member of the Litecoin Foundation, which promotes Litecoins, gave a presentation about the year, in which the coin lost more than 90 percent of its value.

He talked about a big Litecoin summit this year, which on one slide he specified cost a quarter-million dollars. There, guests could buy candy with Litecoins. This showed everyone how useful Litecoin could be, he said.

The trouble was always that we already have something that lets us buy candy.

An ad played for something called Bitrue, a wallet. It was just a half-dozen people looking straight at the camera saying: “I trust Bitrue.”

And then Curtis Wang, the chief executive of Bitrue, stood up to announce a very special offer. He could promise investors a 10 percent annual percentage yield. There was scattered applause in the crowd.

Someone in the audience raised a hand and asked whether that was even legal to offer.

[rallizes]

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/feb/04/quadrigacx-canada-cryptocurrency-exchange-locked-gerald-cotten


interesting

About $190m in cryptocurrency has been locked away in a online black hole after the founder of a currency exchange died, apparently taking his encrypted access to their money with him.

[likebikes]

does anyone here actually own any crypto?

[MattTuck]

does anyone here actually own any crypto?

Yes, I bought 0.12 bitcoin in August of 2017 for $341. It was worth more than 2K at one point. Alas, I flew to close to the sun and was blinded... it is worth $410 now, so I am still above water, I guess.

[unterhausen]

About $190m in cryptocurrency has been locked away in a online black hole after the founder of a currency exchange died, apparently taking his encrypted access to their money with him.
I saw that and this sort of thing has always been my problem with crypto. It's not safe if you can recover the key, and it's not safe if you can't recover the key. I wouldn't mind if my liquid assets were better protected, but it doesn't seem like this is the way to do it without a lot more thought than has been given so far. There have been big robberies of BtC too. Not to mention the guy that threw away his laptop that had $7 million on the hard drive. Probably worth $70million now, and forget about what it was worth at the peak. Wonder how many times that has been repeated over the years.

I keep forgetting to ask my son how his brightcoin investment is going. He bought when it was still going up, and pulled out his initial investment after it had gone up some, so I'm sure he's above water.

[MattTuck]

I saw that and this sort of thing has always been my problem with crypto. It's not safe if you can recover the key, and it's not safe if you can't recover the key. I wouldn't mind if my liquid assets were better protected, but it doesn't seem like this is the way to do it without a lot more thought than has been given so far. There have been big robberies of BtC too. Not to mention the guy that threw away his laptop that had $7 million on the hard drive. Probably worth $70million now, and forget about what it was worth at the peak. Wonder how many times that has been repeated over the years.

I keep forgetting to ask my son how his brightcoin investment is going. He bought when it was still going up, and pulled out his initial investment after it had gone up some, so I'm sure he's above water.

To my knowledge, the only robberies have happened are on exchanges and other third party platforms like online wallets. The underlying blockchain for btc has not been compromised. There have been attempts on some of the smaller coins to gain enough hashing power, to start stealing money (known as a 51% attack or a majority hash rate attack), but I'm not sure that has yet been effective on a popular coin.

[CunegoFan]

The crypto subreddits make for some fascinating reading. I don't own any crypto but I have become addicted to checking the subreddits every day. /r/buttcoin is hilarious.

I liked a recent post where someone was upset over being down 70% on his investment; and the community tried to left his spirits by telling him he wasn't doing too bad, most of them are down over 80%. This was, of course, in between those telling him now was the time to buy more. People didn't want him to miss his chance to lose 90% I guess.

[MattTuck]

And here we go again :)

[echappist]

what's the time period needed to exchange bitcoins to U.S. Dollars? I was under the impression that it may take a few days.

there may be quite a bit of price fluctuations between when the order is sent and when it actually gets processed

[MattTuck]

what's the time period needed to exchange bitcoins to U.S. Dollars? I was under the impression that it may take a few days.

there may be quite a bit of price fluctuations between when the order is sent and when it actually gets processed

Depends on the method of payment.

If you do it in person with cash, it would be ~10 minutes, but you have to trust the person.

If you do it with a credit card on coinbase, I believe it is almost immediate as well. But I believe there is an additional fee.

If you do a SWIFT transfer, I think you're right that it takes more time.

[andeww]

what's the time period needed to exchange bitcoins to U.S. Dollars? I was under the impression that it may take a few days.

there may be quite a bit of price fluctuations between when the order is sent and when it actually gets processed

When you cash out online via Gdax/Coinbase it takes a couple of days to fully process and appear in your bank account. However, it will match the actual rate you began the process at and it wont be affected by any fluctuation between that time and when it actually processes several days later. There are also physical Bitcoin ATMS that i believe are instant, but i have never used one.

[54ny77]

How can I short the etap 11 speed markets?

[oldpotatoe]

How can I short the etap 11 speed markets?

too late, 11s etap is soooo yesterday...:)

[MattTuck]

what's the time period needed to exchange bitcoins to U.S. Dollars? I was under the impression that it may take a few days.

there may be quite a bit of price fluctuations between when the order is sent and when it actually gets processed

Jim,

Hope you figured it out, and made a cool 18% since your post :)

[echappist]

Jim,

Hope you figured it out, and made a cool 18% since your post :)

i'm way too risk averse for it, but I hope you were able to profit :)

btw, it is good to know at least the infrastructure allows one to make quick-ish transactions

[fiamme red]

Bitcoin looked like a bad investment in March. Not any more. :)

[jkbrwn]

Bitcoin looked like a bad investment in March. Not any more. :)

Yeah, until it isn’t... again. I’m having flashbacks to 2018 all over again.

[Tony T]

Bitcoin looked like a bad investment in March. Not any more. :)

It looked like a bad investment Friday
Not Today

[gngroup]

I finally dipped a toe in back in March. I’m up 4x since then. I’ve dipped several more toes along the way. It still seems like a risky investment but as it gains institutional interest and mainstream adoption (ie paypal), it feels less so with each day. Regardless, it’s been a great run and will probably continue to be a good hedge.

[jpw]

Supply side is tapering off (+18 million mined and less than 3 million to mine), and about 30% of mined permanently off the market (e.g. 'dust'). Just HODL.

[ciclista_tifoso]

.

I opened up a Mt.Gox account back when it was still up and running, but never got the nerve to put money in it before it shut down.

Then, in early 2017 (when Bitcoin was priced at ~$3.3K), I took the plunge and invested in Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum and Ripple. I then opened a Bittrex account and put some more money into smaller coins.

When it almost hit $20K (per BTC) I was very tempted to cash out. And then for a couple years after the crash in early 2018, I regretted not doing so.

Right now, the HODL philosophy is looking pretty good. As govts begin to invest more resources into digital currency, I anticipate the numbers to continue upwards in the year+ ahead. There'll be dips, of course, but we're in a different market than we were just 2 yrs ago (or even 1 yr ago, for that matter).


.

[Tony T]

$20,000+

[MattTuck]

$20,000+
:banana:
:banana::banana:

[gngroup]

We might push $22k by the end of the day! Wild stuff!

[54ny77]

From 13 bucks to 20k+, all with absolutely no fundamental underlying asset that justifies it as an investment...

...yet meanwhile its being touted as a currency alternative? What a joke. Imagine the consequnce of the dollar or other benchmark currency appreciating 5 figure %.

[MattTuck]

From 13 bucks to 20k+, all with absolutely no fundamental underlying asset that justifies it as an investment...

...yet meanwhile its being touted as a currency alternative? What a joke. Imagine the consequnce of the dollar or other benchmark currency appreciating 5 figure %.

The asset is scarcity with a decentralized digital platform for transferring a claim on that scarcity.

I think you can simultaneously believe that it is both an interesting potential asset class and an experimental digital currency with high levels of uncertainty and price volatility. Those two things don't need to be mutually exclusive.

That said, it seems unlikely you'll see the kind of exponential growth that people enjoyed from the very early days. When I first learned about it, it was trading a little less than $1.00 per bitcoin. It seemed a lot of experimental back then... Even if it goes to $1M per btc from here (which seems ludicrous), that's only a 50x return -- which seems pedestrian compared to some of the tech companies.

[54ny77]

i don't understand it and don't view it as an asset class. call me ignorant.

when a buddy of mine tells me that a place he camps at, with a nearby hydroelectric dam and where the local utility is a co-op, and a major fund comes in and buys/rents a boatload of unmarked space and fills it with servers mining bitcoin because the power is among the cheapest in the country, that tells me something's not quite right in the state of denmark.

but hey, 'merica!

The asset is scarcity with a decentralized digital platform for transferring a claim on that scarcity.

I think you can simultaneously believe that it is both an interesting potential asset class and an experimental digital currency with high levels of uncertainty and price volatility. Those two things don't need to be mutually exclusive.

That said, it seems unlikely you'll see the kind of exponential growth that people enjoyed from the very early days. When I first learned about it, it was trading a little less than $1.00 per bitcoin. It seemed a lot of experimental back then... Even if it goes to $1M per btc from here (which seems ludicrous), that's only a 50x return -- which seems pedestrian compared to some of the tech companies.

[Louis]

This is ridiculous.

At least the tulip farms of the 17th century were pleasing to the eye.

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/fgIITzMx.EDHs0GOCQik4w--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTY0MA--/https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/rcrOqOsvHJl03IVcWqvd.A--~B/aD0xMDAwO3c9MTUwMDthcHBpZD15dGFjaHlvbg--/https://media.zenfs.com/en/coindesk_75/c53b87d5d2f70ee947658154095b8a3d

[Tony T]

we might push $22k by the end of the day! Wild stuff!

$23,000+

[gngroup]

$23,000+

:banana::banana::banana:

[tomato coupe]

When the apocalypse comes, my Beanie Baby collection will be worth more than those bitcoins.

[Louis]

When the apocalypse comes, my Beanie Baby collection will be worth more than those bitcoins.

https://www.cosmopolitan.com/lifestyle/g24162108/most-expensive-valuable-beanie-babies-collectible/

I hope the collection includes one of these:

Princess Bear - $665k

https://hips.hearstapps.com/vader-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/1574822106-s-l1600.jpg

[Chris]

Bitcoin was the new gold, but it's so played out now.

Palladium is the new bitcoin. you heard it here first ;)

Uh...Matt? :)

[Tony T]

Approaching 26,000

[buddybikes]

Meanwhile unemployment insurance stops and well as evictions about to be restarted....

[Hawker]

When the apocalypse comes, my Beanie Baby collection will be worth more than those bitcoins.

It is your lucky day. Have I got a deal for you!

[Tony T]

approaching 26,000

26,700

[C40_guy]

my son put some money into Bitcoin a couple of years ago and he's just now back to even.

Meanwhile we've made a 50% return on STIC.U (a SPAC) in less than two weeks...

SPACs seem to be the 2020 iteration of reverse mergers.

[Tony T]

28,000+

[Tony T]

my son put some money into Bitcoin a couple of years ago and he's just now back to even.


Even if he bought bitcoin as the 20k high years ago he should now be closer to a 50% return than break-even

[Tony T]

29,000

[gngroup]

$30k for New Year’s . . .

[Tony T]

30,000

[Tony T]

31,000

[Louis]

How could anyone rationally justify buying in at this price? :confused:

Or is it all "irrational exuberance?" (to quote Alan Greenspan before the .com bubble burst)

[redir]

How could anyone rationally justify buying in at this price? :confused:

Or is it all "irrational exuberance?" (to quote Alan Greenspan before the .com bubble burst)

I can't that's for sure. Just 6 weeks ago I said I will buy if it dips below 10k. It did and I let it go, wish I didn't.

There will be a correction soon. I could of course be wrong but there is no way I'm buying at this price.

[R3awak3n]

I won't buy it but I am sure people thought the same when it was 5k, 10k,. 15k, 20k, 25k...

[Tony T]

32,000

[Tony T]

33,000

[gngroup]

If you believe Citibank and Morgan Stanley’s price guidance of somewhere north of $300k per coin, buying in now represents a tremendous opportunity. Even if you take the shorter term valuation of $50k this is still a good entry point. That said, it’s all about ‘belief’.

[redir]

You guys are killin me :D

I've done well with Chainlink and I am counting on EOS to do well this year but never bought Bitcoin. If it corrects as I think it will and drops back around 20 then I just might.

[Blown Reek]

the .com bubble burst

Was a function of too much money and not enough things to put them into, and valuations be damned. Bitcoin sure feels like the same thing, but instead of the future earnings of companies being traded (many) multiple times over, it's the idea of a finite amount of something that's been afforded legitimacy. It'll be interesting to see how this historically plays out.

[Tony T]

...If it corrects as I think it will and drops back around 20 then I just might.

So....back to where it was last week ;)

[Tony T]

3 Years ago (https://forums.thepaceline.net/showpost.php?p=2308292&postcount=391) (when it corrected after approaching 20), I thought of Tulips, but I was wrong.
https://forums.thepaceline.net/attachment.php?attachmentid=1697954368&stc=1&d=1517860502

[Tony T]

35,800

[redir]

So....back to where it was last week ;)

Exactly! LOL.

[Tony T]

37,000

[Tony T]

38,000

[Tony T]

39,000

[MattTuck]

If anyone is familiar with red dot chart for bitcoin, it suggests prices of $100K in the near future.

I personally think bitcoin may be getting ahead of itself in the near term, but who knows. I am not sure I buy the "this is a replacement for fiat money, and democrats are going to print money full brrrrr" argument because we are not witnessing equivalent run ups in gold. The strongest argument I can make that this is not a speculative mania is that the rising price reflects continued adoption of bitcoin as an emerging asset class and more investors are allocating a portion of their portfolios to such assets.

The pro for this argument is that we are witnessing the birth of a new asset class in a time when information flows are instantaneous and money is easy to move because of digital infrastructure. If you look at the birth of stocks (limited liability equity ownership), it took centuries for the median individual to be able to own a stock. And so the allocation of wealth to that asset class was much slower. Even today, less than 50% of Americans own stock directly or indirectly. What we are seeing with bitcoin may be a very accelerated version of the same thing -- a large scale shift in how investors allocate portfolios.

I don't think you can disprove the speculative mania argument -- and there have been plenty of those in the past. The key difference (atleast with regard to Tulips or Dotcoms) is that scarcity is built into the platform.

[Will_s]

It's just like gold. If enough people believe in it....

[Tony T]

40,000

[gngroup]

Well said.

If anyone is familiar with red dot chart for bitcoin, it suggests prices of $100K in the near future.

I personally think bitcoin may be getting ahead of itself in the near term, but who knows. I am not sure I buy the "this is a replacement for fiat money, and democrats are going to print money full brrrrr" argument because we are not witnessing equivalent run ups in gold. The strongest argument I can make that this is not a speculative mania is that the rising price reflects continued adoption of bitcoin as an emerging asset class and more investors are allocating a portion of their portfolios to such assets.

The pro for this argument is that we are witnessing the birth of a new asset class in a time when information flows are instantaneous and money is easy to move because of digital infrastructure. If you look at the birth of stocks (limited liability equity ownership), it took centuries for the median individual to be able to own a stock. And so the allocation of wealth to that asset class was much slower. Even today, less than 50% of Americans own stock directly or indirectly. What we are seeing with bitcoin may be a very accelerated version of the same thing -- a large scale shift in how investors allocate portfolios.

I don't think you can disprove the speculative mania argument -- and there have been plenty of those in the past. The key difference (atleast with regard to Tulips or Dotcoms) is that scarcity is built into the platform.

[Tony T]

41,000

[redir]

41,000

I'm dyin' in here.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJoGTCbWkAU3XIW.jpg

[fiamme red]

I read somewhere that there have been a lot of Bitcoin purchases around $600 in the last few weeks. So that's what the government's stimulus checks are being spent on. :rolleyes:

[redir]

I read somewhere that there have been a lot of Bitcoin purchases around $600 in the last few weeks. So that's what the government's stimulus checks are being spent on. :rolleyes:

IDK is that really that dumb? I'm one of the lucky ones who have had absolutely no consequences from this entire pandemic. I gave the last covid check to my sister who needs it a lot more than I do. I have no idea why the Gov is giving me money but heck I'll take it. After all it used to be mine in the first place :D

So being that it's 'free' money why not take it to the race track and see if you get lucky?

[martl]

I read somewhere that there have been a lot of Bitcoin purchases around $600 in the last few weeks. So that's what the government's stimulus checks are being spent on. :rolleyes:

With the way the markets are behaving in the moment, one can't really make much of a mistake... Buy what everyone is talking about,cash in your 8% the next day... The trick,as always,is: don't think this will last forever,and get out in time...

[Tony T]

35,000
...
34,000
...
33,000
...
32,000
...
31,000
...
32,000
...
33,000
...
34,000
...
35,000
...

[fiamme red]

Lost passwords lock millionaires out of their Bitcoin fortunes: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/12/technology/bitcoin-passwords-wallets-fortunes.html. :rolleyes:

[Tony T]

I read years ago that the Winklevoss twins printed out their bitcoin passwords, then cut them into two (or more) pieces and then deposited them into safety deposit boxes at different banks.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/19/technology/bitcoin-winklevoss-twins.amp.html?0p19G=6214

[redir]

Man that sure is a hard lesson to learn about password security.

A friend of mine lost a thumbdrive a long time ago with enough bitcoin today to make him a millionaire. But that was back when it was worthless too. I'm sure there are a lot of those out there.

[Tony T]

I wonder how many of those who lost passwords would have sold years ago when Bitcoin was near worthless. Password security for these guys was lax because of the low value back then. So they probably would have sold out at the first pop in value years ago.

[martl]

Man that sure is a hard lesson to learn about password security.

A friend of mine lost a thumbdrive a long time ago with enough bitcoin today to make him a millionaire. But that was back when it was worthless too. I'm sure there are a lot of those out there.

count me in, only i didnt mislay my thumbdrive, instead (even dumber) i gave my coins to MtGox :D

i'd never have had the nerve to hold on to them until today. Would have sold them when btc hit 100 the first time, the latest.

[marciero]

Lost passwords lock millionaires out of their Bitcoin fortunes: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/12/technology/bitcoin-passwords-wallets-fortunes.html. :rolleyes:

That article is the reason I checked in here. Man, I feel for these people. That has to be hard to take.

[likebikes]

HODL gang

[Louis]

Man, I feel for these people.

But not too much - the one guy who's the focus of the story seems to have plenty of liquid investments to tide him over.

[Tony T]

If they bought 1 million in Bitcoin within the past 4 years and lost their password then I would feel sorry for them. But the guy who was the focus of the story had 7,000 bitcoins from back in 2011 when a Bitcoin was less than $5. Had he not lost his password, it’s probable that he would have sold years ago —. And then the story would have been how he “lost” $200 million by selling too soon.

Hey, I bought AMZN when it was $8, and sold it at $100, maybe the NYT could run a story on how i lost millions:)

[BobbyJones]

If they bought 1 million in Bitcoin within the past 4 years and lost their password then I would feel sorry for them. But the guy who was the focus of the story had 7,000 bitcoins from back in 2011 when a Bitcoin was less than $5. Had he not lost his password, it’s probable that he would have sold years ago —. And then the story would have been how he “lost” $200 million by selling too soon.

Hey, I bought AMZN when it was $8, and sold it at $100, maybe the NYT could run a story on how i lost millions:)


Not quite the same thing at all Tony.

Anyway, It's my understanding that there's an estimated $140bn worth that people are "locked" out of.

[Tony T]

Not quite the same thing at all Tony.


Hence the ":)"

…and just like that, Bitcoin back to 40,000.

[redir]

Wow! My Chainlink (LINK) is doing real good :D

[akelman]

Can't promise the numbers are correct, and wouldn't want to tell people what they should do with their money. But this seems like a massive societal cost of Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies).

https://twitter.com/smdiehl/status/1350874922495733761?s=21

[Louis]

Can't promise the numbers are correct, and wouldn't want to tell people what they should do with their money. But this seems like a massive societal cost of Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies).

https://twitter.com/smdiehl/status/1350874922495733761?s=21

I very much doubt that people care, as long as it makes them money.

No different from a coal mine.

[rounder]

I have not been following the bitcoin story closely, but there was an interesting story in the Washington Post today about how bitcoin mining was causing blackouts in Iran due to excessive strain on the power grid.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/01/16/massive-blackouts-have-hit-iran-government-is-blaming-bitcoin/

[mstateglfr]

Can't promise the numbers are correct, and wouldn't want to tell people what they should do with their money. But this seems like a massive societal cost of Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies).

https://twitter.com/smdiehl/status/1350874922495733761?s=21

Interesting- ive known about the server farms and periodic reported blackouts, but have never looked into how much sheer power is required to mine this mythical stuff.
This has definitely motivated me to take a look at the numbers.