Reminder: Milan San Remo this Sunday

[MattTuck]

The first Monument of the season, and probably one of the more exciting finales... Up and then down the Poggio.

As a reminder, here's the closing KMs of last year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9UpH7OCefM

[efuentes]

Grrrr ...... :mad:


This video contains content from Universal Sports, who has blocked it in your country on copyright grounds.



This one works https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQQswzDp4HU

[nooneline]

It's pretty hard to pick anybody but Sagan for this one, considering his showing in Tirreno-Adriatico.

[MattTuck]

It's pretty hard to pick anybody but Sagan for this one, considering his showing in Tirreno-Adriatico.

I can't really disagree. If he goes on the climb of the Poggio and has a decent lead over the top, he'd probably be in good shape. But, despite beating Cav and Greipel, a bunch sprint is still a crap shoot... lots can happen.

Also, if he makes a big attack on the uphill and gets caught, I'm not sure he'd have another kick...

oh, who am I kidding? He's going to be making another ridiculous victory salute on Sunday.

[nooneline]

Yeah.
He was able to follow Nibali up the sant'elpidio, he's an ace descender, and a damn fine sprinter.

It actually really makes me wonder how MSR will go. I can't see anybody shaking Sagan on the Poggio, but I also can't see anybody working with him on their wheel (unless Cancellara hasn't learned his lesson). And if a move goes without Sagan, I can't see anybody else being all that motivated reel it in knowing Sagan will rock the sprint. And we saw last year that he can get to the end of the race... so...

Ah, screw it, it's hard to predict what'll happen at the end of 300 kilometers.

[AgilisMerlin]

1994 race (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2cHn3DMDok)

complete with Phil and included it's own 80's soundtrack :banana:

http://www.dewielersite.net/db2/wielersite/beeldbank/1239006129FURLAN%20Giorgio%20-%203.jpg

http://www.dewielersite.net/db2/wielersite/beeldbank/1262676984FURLAN%20Giorgio%20-%201995.jpg

[tiretrax]

Lots can happen in a 300+k race.

[nooneline]

Indeed.
Even in a 298k race.

:p

[MattTuck]

but I also can't see anybody working with him on their wheel (unless Cancellara hasn't learned his lesson). And if a move goes without Sagan, I can't see anybody else being all that motivated reel it in knowing Sagan will rock the sprint.

I think he definitely has to be a marked man at this point. I don't know if it matters, there are only a handful of riders that can stay with him at the end of the race anyway... and they're all marked men. For the love of god, I hope Fabian's time off has given him to reflect on the folly of giving sprinters free rides to the finish.

[firerescuefin]

I think he definitely has to be a marked man at this point. I don't know if it matters, there are only a handful of riders that can stay with him at the end of the race anyway... and they're all marked men. For the love of god, I hope Fabian's time off has given him to reflect on the folly of giving sprinters free rides to the finish.

They can't all be marked men...which will create the dra,a and opportunity for one or two of them. Looking forward to it:)

[laupsi]

I'm going w/Joaquim Rodriguez. He may not be the strongest overall but he has what it takes to race smart and to get up that final climb w/enough of a gap to close it down.

[MattTuck]

They can't all be marked men...which will create the dra,a and opportunity for one or two of them. Looking forward to it:)

I meant, of the people that can stay with Sagan at the end, they're all marked men. Not the whole peloton. My bad if that wasn't clear.

[earlfoss]

If Fabian hasn't learned by now that his sledgehammer tactics at the end of races don't work, I doubt he'll change his behavior on Sunday. That's a shame. It's been 2 seasons now since his domination of PR and Flanders and he's still trying to pull the same kind of move only he's not quite got the same fitness and others are hyper aware of him.

I'd love to see Stijn Devolder to get in shape and make Shack a 1-2 puncher in the classics. He's starting to come around with a good TT and work in breaks at Tirreno, hopefully the trend continues.

Sunday's race could very likely produce an unexpected winner. Who that could end up being is anyone's guess.

[firerescuefin]

I meant, of the people that can stay with Sagan at the end, they're all marked men. Not the whole peloton. My bad if that wasn't clear.

Matt...I think there are more than a couple favorites. I was just saying you can only follow so many wheels. Sagan will be the Cancellara of last year.

[cmg]

Does anyone know if it going to shown on beIN tv (channel 620 Direct tv) or on Universal sports or Versus? yea, Sagan is the pick. when he beat Cavandish, Grepiel at TA stage 3, it was impressive, crappy conditions.

[ultraman6970]

Bookies are going with sagan for sure.

[MattTuck]

Bookies are going with sagan for sure.

Odds, for anyone who is interested. from http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/cycling/milan-san-remo

P Sagan 2.37
M Cavendish 8.00
F Pozzato 15.00
M Goss 15.00
F Cancellara 15.00
A Greipel 21.00
P Gilbert 26.00
E Boasson Hagen 26.00
V Nibali 34.00
T Hushovd 34.00
J Degenkolb 34.00
M Moser 34.00
G Thomas 41.00
M Marcato 41.00
H Haussler 41.00
G Ciolek 41.00
S Gerrans 51.00
Syl Chavanel 51.00
T Boonen 51.00
M Santambrogio 67.00
S Modolo 67.00
L Paolini 67.00
Joaquin Rodriguez 67.00
J J Rojas 67.00
D Bennati 67.00
G van Avermaet 67.00
Y Offredo 67.00
A Petacchi 81.00
E Gasparotto 81.00
A Demare 81.00
M Breschel 101.00
G Visconti 101.00
M Iglinskiy 101.00
R Nocentini 101.00
J Roelandts 101.00
O Gatto 101.00
A Valverde 101.00
T Voeckler 101.00

[laupsi]

Odds, for anyone who is interested. from http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/cycling/milan-san-remo

P Sagan 2.37
M Cavendish 8.00
F Pozzato 15.00
M Goss 15.00
F Cancellara 15.00
A Greipel 21.00
P Gilbert 26.00
E Boasson Hagen 26.00
V Nibali 34.00
T Hushovd 34.00
J Degenkolb 34.00
M Moser 34.00
G Thomas 41.00
M Marcato 41.00
H Haussler 41.00
G Ciolek 41.00
S Gerrans 51.00
Syl Chavanel 51.00
T Boonen 51.00
M Santambrogio 67.00
S Modolo 67.00
L Paolini 67.00
Joaquin Rodriguez 67.00
J J Rojas 67.00
D Bennati 67.00
G van Avermaet 67.00
Y Offredo 67.00
A Petacchi 81.00
E Gasparotto 81.00
A Demare 81.00
M Breschel 101.00
G Visconti 101.00
M Iglinskiy 101.00
R Nocentini 101.00
J Roelandts 101.00
O Gatto 101.00
A Valverde 101.00
T Voeckler 101.00

say, where's Andy Schleck?

[Vientomas]

I'll take Sylvan Chavanel for the win.

[ultraman6970]

Schleck??? For him the odds would be like 10000:1 if not even more than that :)

Based merely in how good he had been doing lately, he couldn't get even to the passo del turchino with the front of the group, in a matter of fact probably around km 97 he would had thrown the towel and like 5 mins behind the tail of the peloton. That kid is done for the season IMO unless he find some crap to take like energon or maybe cryptonite.

Those 300 km will be terrible, the 1st cut will be at passo del turchino, the second will be 204 km... and the last one will be in the last short climb.

Cant find the roster, anybody knows where it is?

[firerescuefin]

I'll take Sylvan Chavanel for the win.

That is not a bad pick.

[MattTuck]

From VeloNews story (http://velonews.competitor.com/2013/03/analysis/sanremo-lessons-learned-at-tirreno-adriatico_277676)

Forecasters are calling for a high of 5 degrees Celcius and snow on Sunday in Milan. Sanremo will not be much better, climbing to 10 degrees, but raining. This could be the first inclement Milano-Sanremo since Claudio Chiappucci won in 1991.

The weather, specifically if it’s bad, will change the outcome. If a headwind greets the peloton heading along the coast, it then shifts the race into the sprinters’ hands as everyone hides in the group. A tailwind will encourage an attacking race like in 2012 when Simon Gerrans (Orica-GreenEdge) outwitted Nibali and Fabian Cancellara (RadioShack-Leopard) after an attack on the Poggio climb.

“If it rains, it changes it all,” said Filippo Pozzato (Lampre-Merida), the 2006 winner. “The roads turn slippery, especially with the olive trees leaving slick residue on the Cipressa.”


Taking all this, and not having seen a start list yet, I'll throw my pick to Phillipe Gilbert. Of the current riders with more than one Monument win, only him and Tom Boonen are still in need of MSR. As much as I like Tom, I don't think he's as suited to getting over the Poggio as Gilbert... so, that's just a little bit of extra motivation. He'll then have just PR and RvV to have a win in every monument. I may be using this same logic to justify my picks for him in PR and RvV in the coming weeks ;)

[JonB]

My prediction:

1st - Joaquim Rodriguez
2nd - Moreno Moser
3rd - Edvald Boasson Hagen

Rain will cause crashes/chaos and the sprinters will be gapped on the Cipressa and Poggio.

[torquer]

Bookies are going with sagan for sure.
Odds reflect what bettors expect, not so much bookies.
I think folks placing bets overvalue the favorite. If I were throwing money around, I'd "invest" in some of the names further down the list, like Ciolek.

[jpw]

what is the weather forecast?

[Uncle Jam's Army]

Anyone know on what channel the race will be shown?

Also, have to stick with my boy Boss Hog. Been picking him for years now and he almost came through at last year's Worlds.

[nooneline]

I wanna see Greg van Avermaet finally win a big race. He can get into small groups and outsprint 'em.

But I don't think this year is his year. Not with Sagan looking like he's got no ceiling to his talent.

The weather could make it so that a real dark horse wins, though.

[MattTuck]

Cancellara on beating Sagan

“I have my ideas [on how to beat him] but I’ll keep it to myself,” Cancellara said. “He’s not been so gentlemanly with me so far, so I won’t pull with him if we get away – that’s how it goes. I’ll have to see how it happens, but I don’t think I’ll be pulling people, even him, to the finish line as I did last year.

http://velonews.competitor.com/2013/03/news/cancellara-says-a-milano-sanremo-victory-is-in-his-cards_277914


I'm glad to see he's saying this publicly. Will make any other escapees think twice if their plan is just to be towed to the line.

[MattTuck]

Also, here's POV footage of Poggio descent.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=lH6sjpX-t5U

[Uncle Jam's Army]

So I presume no US tv coverage this year?

[MattTuck]

So I presume no US tv coverage this year?

I think the best bet is going to be cyclingfans or steephill.

better than nothing... :help:

[oldpotatoe]

So I presume no US tv coverage this year?

For Comcast it's on channel 411, called 'BIEN'(??) and on a different plan of channels that I have..

Meanwhile, a gent I know in the Netherlands watched T-A wire to wire and will watch M-SR also. Meanwhile, the US has bull riding, fishing and killing big, dumb animals with very expensive rifles.

[Tony T]

http://assets.amuniversal.com/d3fffde062a9013019e7001dd8b71c47

[bironi]

For Comcast it's on channel 411, called 'BIEN'(??) and on a different plan of channels that I have..

Meanwhile, a gent I know in the Netherlands watched T-A wire to wire and will watch M-SR also. Meanwhile, the US has bull riding, fishing and killing big, dumb animals with very expensive rifles.

It is also on beIN on my Comcast lineup.

[MattTuck]

It is also on beIN on my Comcast lineup.

Looking at comcast, I see BEIN, but for me it is 192. and tomorrow morning, I see that they have Italian League Soccer during the same time MSR would be, and notice that teh teams are AC Milan vs. Palermo.

Do you see it listed as Milan San Remo???

[1centaur]

BeIn is owned by al Jazeera (sp), as a matter of interest. It's 192 in English and 726 in Spanish feed form, from what I can tell, and MSR is showing as a replay at 12:30 pm on Monday as well as later that day.

[Tony T]

what is the weather forecast?

"The weather forecast looks very poor, rain and perhaps some snow on the Turchino" (http://italiancyclingjournal.blogspot.com)

" www.gazzetta.it will be streaming worldwide from approximately 14:45 Italian time. www.cyclingfans.com will also have links to streaming feeds in various languages including English."

[rwsaunders]

Reading Eddy Merckx 525...Milan-San Remo was his first Classics win.

[rwsaunders]

Even more impressive photo finish.