now we're rationing gas in NJ

[AngryScientist]

good grief.

odd and even days.

some people still dont have power or heat in their homes, worse, no water or sewer, relying on generators if they are lucky to have one, and 3 hour lines for gas. night time temps into the low 30's.

it's getting scary out there.

[54ny77]

lock & load!

(only half-joking....)

[1centaur]

In business thee is a concept called just in time inventory (JIT) that is designed to save businesses money by not tying up cash in inventory on hand. Instead, a third-party manufacturing and distribution system effectively carries the inventory and tries to deliver it to the point of sale or use exactly when it is needed (just in time). When it works, it saves consumers money. When it doesn't, everything falls apart in a hurry. An example was the Japanese earthquake disrupting the supplier of a pigment used in car paint for popular Ford models globally. Weakest link in the chain and all that.

In some ways, US society has become a JIT environment. We see it in gasoline all the time, as discussed in the California gas prices thread a few weeks ago. But it extends deeper than that because it has become so easy to get what we want so quickly...except when it's not. We are extremely helpless without electricity; interesting how quickly that developed. We have a high need for transport over large distances. We don't know how to heat ourselves. The entire system is built around the best option, so that it becomes the only option. It's totally impractical to have vegetable gardens and wood fired stoves and a clean stream in the back yard for most of us, and so we cross our fingers and hope the EMP does not come. The most powerful society on earth is the most fragile. Poor societies are much more sustainable.

[rwsaunders]

Nothing new...it was a national policy in 1973 when I was in HS.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis

[Climb01742]

hybrid cars have an interesting new selling point.

[Rueda Tropical]

In business thee is a concept called just in time inventory (JIT) that is designed to save businesses money by not tying up cash in inventory on hand. Instead, a third-party manufacturing and distribution system effectively carries the inventory and tries to deliver it to the point of sale or use exactly when it is needed (just in time). When it works, it saves consumers money. When it doesn't, everything falls apart in a hurry. An example was the Japanese earthquake disrupting the supplier of a pigment used in car paint for popular Ford models globally. Weakest link in the chain and all that.

In some ways, US society has become a JIT environment. We see it in gasoline all the time, as discussed in the California gas prices thread a few weeks ago. But it extends deeper than that because it has become so easy to get what we want so quickly...except when it's not. We are extremely helpless without electricity; interesting how quickly that developed. We have a high need for transport over large distances. We don't know how to heat ourselves. The entire system is built around the best option, so that it becomes the only option. It's totally impractical to have vegetable gardens and wood fired stoves and a clean stream in the back yard for most of us, and so we cross our fingers and hope the EMP does not come. The most powerful society on earth is the most fragile. Poor societies are much more sustainable.

+1

Like Credit Default Swaps in the Financial system which created an interdependent highly leveraged and it turned out, very fragile system. Modern industrial society is now a highly optimized, widely distributed interdependent network. One bit goes down and the effects ripple outward with frightening speed. One assumption turns out to be wrong (like cheap energy forever or a climate in the future that will be more or less like the climate in the near past) and things can go south fast.

[jr59]

Been thru it my friend. Hang tough. It's a LONG way back.

The storm it's self is bad enough, but the restoring of services and clean up of just the trash is very hard when resources are limited. Then come the fighting with the ins co, and then the faulty rebuilding because everyones wants it quick and cheap.

There are many stages of getting back to normal. It's a long process, with no way of speeding it up.

In fact, I think the lessons learned in and during Katrina are serving the NY/NJ area very well. We lost power here for 45 days and was w/o any help from anywhere for about 4-7 days. The red tape and paper work bogged down everything!

Good luck and hang tough!

[BobbyJones]

I just read that the DoD is setting up Temp fueling stations in NY and GIVING fuel away.

Hungry people who lost everything can't riot, but those who still need to hit the shopping malls are apparently a much bigger threat.

Despicable.

[54ny77]

I'm in CT and went to gas station at 1:00 a.m.

Fuhgettaboutit.....lines hundred+ cars long.

Went again at 6 a.m....

Same.

I thought I saw this guy walking down the road as I was driving away....

http://www.beyondhollywood.com/uploads/2010/07/mad-max.jpg

[jr59]

I just read that the DoD is setting up Temp fueling stations in NY and GIVING fuel away.

Hungry people who lost everything can't riot, but those who still need to hit the shopping malls are apparently a much bigger threat.

Despicable.

Sorry guy.

This type of thing effects EVERYBODY in the area. It's not just those who lost everything.

You can't think that way. Well I guess you can, but IMO, having been tru 2 of these things, Andrew and Katrina, I can tell you that the whole region will need a lot of help.

I will hope the people that did lose everything are a least starting to figure out what to do and who to get the help they need. If you think that's a easy thing to do, for both the people needing as well as giving, I can assure you it is not.

[AngryScientist]

i dont know the details exactly, and i was very lucky to sustain no real damage, but i think private insurance companies and fema are acting pretty quickly to help those who lost a lot. overall, i think the response to this storm is being handled well.

[jr59]

i dont know the details exactly, and i was very lucky to sustain no real damage, but i think private insurance companies and fema are acting pretty quickly to help those who lost a lot. overall, i think the response to this storm is being handled well.


This is very good to hear. I and a BUNCH from here in the NOLA area are glad to hear the lessons learned here have not been forgotten!

[Ray]

It sounds like it IS being handled very well, but just like coming back from a catastrophic financial collapse, coming back from a huge natural disaster takes a LONG time. Yeah, everybody is trying hard to do the right things to get immediate aid to people most in need of immediate aid and stop the bleeding. But then there's months and years of cleanup and rebuilding and EVERYONE needs stuff rebuilt and there are only so many people who can do the work, even with loads of crews coming in from out of the area. So meanwhile there are a lot of people displaced, living with friends and relatives while all of this rebuilding gets started. In a fairly localized disaster, few enough people are wiped out that the damage can generally be repaired reasonably quickly. In an enormous regional disaster like this, there are just too many people competing for the same "recovery" resources that can only be doled out at a given pace. Its gonna be a looooong time and people's patience will likely run out way before the job's done.

The good news is that unlike with a national/global economy, there aren't that many competing opinions on HOW to fix it, its just a matter of getting it done, but at least everyone tends to be pulling in roughly the same direction. And, along with the repairs and rebuilding, a lot of revitalization tends to happen as well. But then you also get into uncomfortable questions about whether the US should provide flood insurance for people who choose to build on barrier islands that were never intended to stay in one place and are SUPPOSED to flood and move around as nature dictates to protect the mainland. My wife has always wanted a place out on Long Beach Island, where she's been going since she was a small kid and I've never been willing to try to buy anything out there because its so plainly a disaster waiting to happen. And it just happened. So, if the island is rebuilt, we'll keep renting there during the summers, but there's really not a lot of good reason to insure people for building in floodplains or in the damned OCEAN and yet we definitely will because the economic impact of NOT doing it would be devastating...

Gas rationing? We saw it in the '70s, twice. It should have been a wake up call. It'll happen again at some point, on a far larger scale than this...

-Ray

[54ny77]

be sure to read your ins. policy. some may have hurricane exclusions, but not tropical storm.

at some point (late tues?), i thought sandy was downgraded to a t.s. (not sure though, memory fuzzy).

now, how you go about filing a claim saying damage happened when it became a t.s., well....that ought to be fun. :eek:


i dont know the details exactly, and i was very lucky to sustain no real damage, but i think private insurance companies and fema are acting pretty quickly to help those who lost a lot. overall, i think the response to this storm is being handled well.

[BobbyJones]

This is very good to hear. I and a BUNCH from here in the NOLA area are glad to hear the lessons learned here have not been forgotten!

Friends on the ground in SI and Queens are coming back
with Katrina-esque stories. Another epic government fail.

[BobbyJones]

You missed my point completely.

Sorry guy.

This type of thing effects EVERYBODY in the area. It's not just those who lost everything.

You can't think that way. Well I guess you can, but IMO, having been tru 2 of these things, Andrew and Katrina, I can tell you that the whole region will need a lot of help.

I will hope the people that did lose everything are a least starting to figure out what to do and who to get the help they need. If you think that's a easy thing to do, for both the people needing as well as giving, I can assure you it is not.

[roydyates]

I just read that the DoD is setting up Temp fueling stations in NY and GIVING fuel away.

Hungry people who lost everything can't riot, but those who still need to hit the shopping malls are apparently a much bigger threat.

Despicable.

My impression is that the gas shortage is the result of (1) many stations have been closed due to lack of electric power, (2) lots of people need fuel to run their generators. A 5kW generator might consume 0.5 gallons/hr, or 5 to 10 gallons per day, roughly about the same or more than 2 family cars for the day. Since people still need to drive, this is additional demand. In any case, people I know are filling their cars as storage tanks for the generators.

Probably this rationing will end shortly since 75% of the electric power outages should be resolved over the weekend. Or at least that's what JCP&L is saying.
Also, it is highly localized. For people in central jersey, a 30-40 min ride to south of trenton should be enough to bypass the lines.

[93legendti]

My friend in Binghamton already got her power back...

[jr59]

You missed my point completely.

NO you did.

Simply put, a LOT of people seem to be able to decide what should be done, sitting in their comfy home with all their loved ones accounted for and everything that they own right where they left it.

I NEVER hear comments like yours from people that have lived thru big storms.
You know, like when you lose everything you ever had. Or like when you have to find bodies of very loved ones. Or like when your home has 10 feet of water in it for 15 days. NEVER do I hear comments like yours from people like me that have lived thru it. Complain about the time help arrived, yep, complain out of grief, you know it. But when it's mostly over, you NEVER hear those types of comments. You see things like are happing here in NOLA. Fund raisers all weekend long. Nightclubs and Restraunts that are giving 1/2 of the cash register to the red cross or funding their own caravans with supplies!

I think you missed the point!

And I'm out on this.

[CNY rider]

My friend in Binghamton already got her power back...

We really got lucky in upstate NY.
It was a windy, rainy evening but nothing special.
A few small branches down here and there.

[AngryScientist]

yikes...

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8gPWNOGGTd0/UJWXojrghmI/AAAAAAAAA7M/MIOlrkCpIkg/s640/IMG_1085.JPG

[akelman]

yikes...

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8gPWNOGGTd0/UJWXojrghmI/AAAAAAAAA7M/MIOlrkCpIkg/s640/IMG_1085.JPG

That'll buff right out. Seriously, best wishes to all of you struggling with the aftermath of the storm.

[Louis]

Another epic government fail.

This is amusing, coming from someone who probably believes that government should play as minuscule a role in his life as possible.

You can't have it both ways.

[AngryScientist]

and here's the scene:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-FWe_Bic-j3Q/UJWXeDkHUNI/AAAAAAAAA6w/lOwa-bbQbsI/s640/IMG_0264.JPG

[Ralph]

Government failure??? If conservatives have their way, there will be no gov't resources or departments to come to the aid of disasters. Or it will be way cut back. Just quoting Romney.

The electric companies are public owned companies. They need to sell electric power so as to have good earnings, pay dividends, keep their stock price up, etc. They will get the power back to these gasoline terminals, distribution centers, and gas stations as soon as humanly possible. Don't see how gov't needs to get involved in that....other than to pave the way and make it as easy as possible. There is no shortage of gasoline, there is actually a glut of it. Just need the power back up to get it out to consumers.

[slidey]

I hope all of those affected are doing well. I however, have another question to ask: I noticed that a couple of you compared this incident to the financial meltdown of 2008. I'm wondering what prompted you to make this connection, since I'd have sooner related this to Katrina, and other natural disasters than a man-made one.

[Louis]

I'm wondering what prompted you to make this connection

It isn't a perfect analogy, but I assume they are doing so because it's related to a complex system's ability to handle external disturbances, whether they be man made or not.

[Ray]

I hope all of those affected are doing well. I however, have another question to ask: I noticed that a couple of you compared this incident to the financial meltdown of 2008. I'm wondering what prompted you to make this connection, since I'd have sooner related this to Katrina, and other natural disasters than a man-made one.

What Louis said, but also an analogy on the difference between a garden variety recession and a nearly full financial meltdown (that was arguably headed that way but for aggressive Bush and then Obama intervention) compared to the difference between a much more limited disaster (tornado, localized flooding, etc) vs a huge regional catastrophe like Sandy (or Katrina)...

-Ray

[93legendti]

Never fear, FEMA thinks that by Monday they will have water to supply to the area.

[tuxbailey]

sounds pretty bad still. I hope you and your family are well.

More chance to ride since gas is in short supply.

[Polyglot]

I live in South New Jersey and you can go to any gas station near me and it is business as usual, no lines, no rationing. The rationing is only in the following counties: Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Middlesex, Morris, Monmouth, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren.

[Ahneida Ride]

+1

Like Credit Default Swaps in the Financial system which created an interdependent highly leveraged and it turned out, very fragile system.
things can go south fast.

The financial Tsunami is a coming.

[Rueda Tropical]

The financial Tsunami is a coming.

Maybe, maybe not.

Neither outcome is inevitable. Central Banking doesn't guarantee an eventual collapse of fiat money, but it doesn't insure against one if central bankers are irresponsible. The previous system certainly was not more stable.

[Ralph]

As I recall......From before and during 1929-1933, the era of "The Great Depression", we were on the gold standard. We got off that stanard for a good reason. We also had several severe depressons during the 1800's while on that standard. It tends to tie the hands of monetary officials trying to keep our economy going. Since we went off the gold standard, our depressions have been shorter and less severe. Can't imagine why anyone would want to go back. Actually....no one in power who understand how our economy works, does want to go back. I'm not even sure there is enough gold in the world to use that standard if we wished to.

I agree our monetary officials have at times been, IMHO, a little too lax in expanding our money supply. It will probably cause considerable inflation in future. One good thing.....that 15 trillion and growing debt will be payed back with much cheaper dollars. Probably causing a lot of pain to those of us who can't grow our incomes and keep up.

[572cv]

This is one of the more lucid pieces I have read about the economic position of the country. Recommended to all.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/business/a-capitalists-dilemma-whoever-becomes-president.html?ref=technology

[Louis]

This is one of the more lucid pieces I have read


Isn't that a euphemism for "boring" ? Where's the fun in that?

We don't want lucid, we want alarmist, we want conspiracy theories, we want boogie-men hiding behind every corner. ;)

[Ralph]

He's mostly explaining why jobs aren't coming back. No matter who wins.

[dancinkozmo]

...strange how all these climate change predictions from the past 20yrs or so seem to be coming true...yet it has been pretty much ignored by the press and both candidates for prez....


Best wishes to everyone affected

[54ny77]

For those of you in Westchester/Fairfield county willing to drive a bit: Fairfield (the city) gas lines are empty and open for biz. No issues.

[Hank Scorpio]

For the NJ folks willing to drive go west or south. My friends live out in Bloomsbury and the lines are very short. I also have a friend who was staying with his grandfather in South Jersey near Toms Tiver and he said there are no lines at all. Also they aren't affected by the odd/ even restriction.

[William]

Media generalizing a local event to be (intentionally or unintentionally) a regional problem? From the news I've seen they make shortages sound widespread.







William

[roydyates]

Media generalizing a local event to be (intentionally or unintentionally) a regional problem? From the news I've seen they make shortages sound widespread.

William
If you live in, say, Bayonne, and you have drive an hour to avaoid a line, then it probably does seem widespread. If you live in the Oranges or the Brunswicks and unconstrained fuel access is 25 min away, then maybe not.

[happycampyer]

Media generalizing a local event to be (intentionally or unintentionally) a regional problem? From the news I've seen they make shortages sound widespread.







WilliamIn lower Westchester and lower Fairfield (Greenwich, etc.), most gas stations are either still shut or have very long lines. I would say that it is more than a local event, but areas closer to the water are probably most affected. As power is restored and deliveries resume, things should improve over the course of this week. Let's hope that the nor'easter that is forecast for Wednesday and Thursday doesn't compound the existing problems.

[93legendti]

http://m.cbsnews.com/storysynopsis.rbml?pageType=national&url=http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57544884/nyc-mayor-bloomberg-says-up-to-40000-may-need-relocation/&feed_id=1&videoid=37&catid=57544884

Not in this life time is this a localized occurrence or not as bad as Katrina.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20121104/DA2AR3H01.html

[jr59]

http://m.cbsnews.com/storysynopsis.rbml?pageType=national&url=http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57544884/nyc-mayor-bloomberg-says-up-to-40000-may-need-relocation/&feed_id=1&videoid=37&catid=57544884

not as bad as Katrina.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20121104/DA2AR3H01.html

Could not agree more. This was a very large yet very weak storm.
It was 30-60 days before most of new Orleans got power.
between 4-10 days before we saw any Fed relief. The feds just were not ready for anything like this.

That's why I am very glad to see the lessons learned here, were not forgotten!
For those living at ground zero; Be patient, your journey is just starting.
God Bless!

[DHallerman]

This is one of the more lucid pieces I have read about the economic position of the country. Recommended to all.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/business/a-capitalists-dilemma-whoever-becomes-president.html?ref=technology

Caveat here: The article's author, Clayton M. Christensen, is a staunch backer of Romney (and a fellow Mormon, which is part of his backing).

So when Christensen writes things like this -- "tax rates on investments held for five years might be zero" -- he's talking about ways for the rich to get richer.

[BumbleBeeDave]

. . . we've only gota day or so and this whole election thing will be over.

In the menatime, please let's keep the partisanship out of his or it will have to be locked down.

Thanks . . .

BBD

[Tony T]

Nothing new...it was a national policy in 1973 when I was in HS.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis

I remember reading a story years ago that odd-even rationing may make things worse. I recall the theory being that most drivers will wait until they're at a 1/4 tank to fill-up, but with odd-even rationing, drivers will fill-up at any opportunity even if they have 1/2 to 3/4 of a tank, so we get the majority of cars with near full tanks, making the shortage worse.

[AngryScientist]

I remember reading a story years ago that odd-even rationing may make things worse. I recall the theory being that most drivers will wait until they're at a 1/4 tank to fill-up, but with odd-even rationing, drivers will fill-up at any opportunity even if they have 1/2 to 3/4 of a tank, so we get the majority of cars with near full tanks, making the shortage worse.

well,

in this case - and it's probably a combination of a lot of factors, things have gotten much better in NJ, the lines this morning were in the 15 minute wait range, i believe. probably because more gas is available and more stations open, but the situation is steadily improving, for sure.

[Cinci Jim]

Rousseau is often claimed to have said any civilization is only 3 meals from revolution.

food for thought ;)

[572cv]

Caveat here: The article's author, Clayton M. Christensen, is a staunch backer of Romney (and a fellow Mormon, which is part of his backing).

So when Christensen writes things like this -- "tax rates on investments held for five years might be zero" -- he's talking about ways for the rich to get richer.

Useful and cautionary background. Thanks.
Still, not having known that, the observations about the different kinds of economic investment and their cyclical nature were pretty thoughtful. I also thought I observed that he said that neither candidate had an approach which dealt with his argument.

[Louis]

Not in this life time is this a localized occurrence or not as bad as Katrina.

Adam, there's still time - the entire world economy might collapse overnight !!!

Wouldn't that be great? ;)

[spiderman]

for the next decade or so we will experience the same weather pattern
as was felt along the atlantic seaboard in the 1950's...
...no doomsday...
...no problem...
like my old coach always said
when preparation meets opportunity
good things happen in horrible situations--
we'll all get through this
and be stronger on the other side!

[Chance]

As bad as Sandy was (or is), it wasn't even classified a hurricane when it reached the coast. To compare it to Katrina or Andrew makes little sense to me.

Electrical power was restored to most customers within a week. Relatively speaking that's not much. Yes, there is a lot of suffereing for sure and our hearts should go out to those in NY and NJ, but based on all news reports to compare the damage to that of Katrina or Andrew seems unfair.

Personally have been without electricity on many occassions due to hurricanes. The only real difference up there is the cold. Hurricanes in Florida and the gulf coast don't normally threaten people due to cold. Heat can also be a problem without electric power but that's not as bad in my opinion.

[Chance]

Government failure??? If conservatives have their way, there will be no gov't resources or departments to come to the aid of disasters. Or it will be way cut back. Just quoting Romney.



Personally prefer to think that being a Republican doesn't make a person a conservative any more than being a Democrat makes them a liberal.

There is a lot of middle ground. Besides, anyone who knows how our process works knows that primaries make it necessary for candidates to "exagerate" to a greater degree in order to get pass their own party's extreme. And that works for both sides.

Personally don't pay much attention to what any of these guys say during the primaries. It's next to useless.