The Lance/Obama/Romney effect

[oldpotatoe]

Talked to a few, other local bike shop owners in the republic and a gent from Catalyst Communications, who has frequent contact with bike shops thruout the USA, big and small. And everybody seems to be having a crappy October(mediocre september), I know I am(after a record setting June/July/August). I wonder why, he thinks it's election season, late season and some sort of lance effect...

He also mentioned that Mellow Johnnys is really in trouble, no surprise there.

Can't want until the stinkin election is done, and people get back to their bikes.

Still lots of nice weather left here in the republic. Almost 80 degrees today..but snow showers on Thursday.

[Elefantino]

Talked to a few, other local bike shop owners in the republic and a gent from Catalyst Communications, who has frequent contact with bike shops thruout the USA, big and small. And everybody seems to be having a crappy October(mediocre september), I know I am(after a record setting June/July/August). I wonder why, he thinks it's election season, late season and some sort of lance effect...

He also mentioned that Mellow Johnnys is really in trouble, no surprise there.

Can't want until the stinkin election is done, and people get back to their bikes.

Still lots of nice weather left here in the republic. Almost 80 degrees today..but snow showers on Thursday.
Wonder if Mellow Johnny's will still sell Treks.

[Chance]

Some guys interviewed on CNBC think the economy is going to turn down. Company profits have been disappointing. Also, some suggested markets wanted Romney to win, and that since he didn't do as well on last two debates, it now seems Obama will win. That in turn (they claim, not me) will have a negative effect on markets. And the economy in general.

We'll see soon enough who is right about lots of different variables.

[oldpotatoe]

Wonder if Mellow Johnny's will still sell Treks.

I'm guessing a sale is gonna happen with a new name...

Edgar's Bike Shop?

(Gotta read Tyler's bike to get that one)

[MattTuck]

Doh! Double post.

[MattTuck]

Wonder if Mellow Johnny's will still sell Treks.

They should become a consignment shop to sell used steel Lemonds.


Peter. A few questions that you can tell me are too personal/private. Are you down in any particular segments? I imagine that bicycles are a bit more cyclical than service, and also much higher margins on service. Is this a time of year that people generally lay off the bike? I get the feeling you run a pretty high end shop to dedicated cyclists, so maybe this is the time they normally get gear for the fall/winter and they're not getting it?

Do you get a sense that people are delaying because of the election? I can't imagine a cyclist saying "I really want a bike, but I'm going to wait till after the election to see what kind of policies we might see." I think the larger problem is that this country's fiscal situation is in the ****ter and people are starting to realize that and may be less willing to make big purchases. On this thesis, I'd still expect routine maintenance and soft goods sales to be ok.

Edit: Did you pinko commie mods do something to censor our first amendment right to swear? ;)

[rbtmcardle]

I am just a stupid tile guy but it seems that the expiration of tax cuts / other changes that take place January 1, to the tune of -3%+ of GDP may crush the economy that is only growing at a rate of 1.5% or so.. In other words instead of growing the economy shrinks by +/-2%, unless things are done post election to extend the cuts.

[echelon_john]

Any feedback based on one location is purely anecdotal, but our local shop here is up significantly, over last year, in September and October so far. Since we're in a resort area, a lot of this can likely be attributed to weather, and the fact that we've had largely great fall weather. Another store owner whom I know well in a different space—he owns a cooperative arts/crafts gallery—reports the same.

There are so many considerations LIKE weather (and geography/micro-economy, and population demographics year-to-year, and, and) I think it's really hard to attribute the performance of micro, niche businesses (which 99% of bike shops are) to the election. It's not like waiting to buy t-bills until there's some indication of what direction things will be heading in January.

[rwsaunders]

I'm guessing a sale is gonna happen with a new name...

Edgar's Bike Shop?

(Gotta read Tyler's bike to get that one)

Got it...how about BB's?

[Ray]

Can't want until the stinkin election is done, and people get back to their bikes.

Do people really do a lot of gettin' back to their bikes in November in Boulder? I'd think they'd be tuning up their skis - that's where my mind turned in November when I lived out there...

-Ray

[nicrump]

He also mentioned that Mellow Johnnys is really in trouble, no surprise there.



with all due respect, as a local in the business, i call BS on this one.

[Climb01742]

Many of the articles I've read mention two aspects of the economy. One is that many Americans are still leveraged fairly highly. Housing prices may not be falling but they aren't rising in many places, so there's little wealth effect being created. And related to that, demand just hasn't risen for goods and services. People aren't spending us out of the recession. Wages aren't rising and jobs are still hard to find. I wonder if this is part of what you're experiencing in boulder?

[gdw]

Is your business slower than this period last year?

I'm a registered Independent and just received my 3rd recorded political phone message of the day. Yesterday 4 came in including two during the debate. I can't wait for this election to be over.

[oldpotatoe]

Any feedback based on one location is purely anecdotal, but our local shop here is up significantly, over last year, in September and October so far. Since we're in a resort area, a lot of this can likely be attributed to weather, and the fact that we've had largely great fall weather. Another store owner whom I know well in a different space—he owns a cooperative arts/crafts gallery—reports the same.

There are so many considerations LIKE weather (and geography/micro-economy, and population demographics year-to-year, and, and) I think it's really hard to attribute the performance of micro, niche businesses (which 99% of bike shops are) to the election. It's not like waiting to buy t-bills until there's some indication of what direction things will be heading in January.

Yep, the Catalyst guy did mention the northeast is doing OK..I had a record setting June/July/August..I'm blaming it on Romney...

[93legendti]

Our shop is doing better than last year.

[echelon_john]

I don't blame you! I would too. ; )

Yep, the Catalyst guy did mention the northeast is doing OK..I had a record setting June/July/August..I'm blaming it on Romney...

[oldpotatoe]

They should become a consignment shop to sell used steel Lemonds.


Peter. A few questions that you can tell me are too personal/private. Are you down in any particular segments? I imagine that bicycles are a bit more cyclical than service, and also much higher margins on service. Is this a time of year that people generally lay off the bike? I get the feeling you run a pretty high end shop to dedicated cyclists, so maybe this is the time they normally get gear for the fall/winter and they're not getting it?

Do you get a sense that people are delaying because of the election? I can't imagine a cyclist saying "I really want a bike, but I'm going to wait till after the election to see what kind of policies we might see." I think the larger problem is that this country's fiscal situation is in the ****ter and people are starting to realize that and may be less willing to make big purchases. On this thesis, I'd still expect routine maintenance and soft goods sales to be ok.

Edit: Did you pinko commie mods do something to censor our first amendment right to swear? ;)

My biggest segment is service. In spite of the nice weather, my service load is down, compared to last year. We do made to order bikes, Moots, Waterford, Gunnar, and those are pretty much done for this year(2 to deliver) but people seem to ride year round. I think a snow a couple of weeks ago, the election, uncertainty, lance, has people thinking about snow rather than bicycles.

Yep, we slow down this time of year but seems the 'season' started earlier, ended sooner as well. Geezz, if I know what this retail stuff was about I'd be drivin a Mercedes, flying a G5 and have 2 homes in Aspen. Already got a Rolex.

Just compared to last year, pretty slow.

[yakstone]

There's always that "if".

[jr59]

My biggest segment is service. In spite of the nice weather, my service load is down, compared to last year. We do made to order bikes, Moots, Waterford, Gunnar, and those are pretty much done for this year(2 to deliver) but people seem to ride year round. I think a snow a couple of weeks ago, the election, uncertainty, lance, has people thinking about snow rather than bicycles.

Yep, we slow down this time of year but seems the 'season' started earlier, ended sooner as well. Geezz, if I know what this retail stuff was about I'd be drivin a Mercedes, flying a G5 and have 2 homes in Aspen. Already got a Rolex.

Just compared to last year, pretty slow.

Hey I got an fix. Fire Jim!!! He plays to much on Facebook anyways! :p :banana:

P.S. I hope you take this in jest.

[texbike]

Wonder if Mellow Johnny's will still sell Treks.

LOL! I heard that Lance was on a Crumpton at the Livestrong event on Sunday instead of the usual Trek. I guess he's returning the favor of kicking Trek to the curb! :)

Texbike

[Rueda Tropical]

Some guys interviewed on CNBC think the economy is going to turn down. Company profits have been disappointing. Also, some suggested markets wanted Romney to win, and that since he didn't do as well on last two debates, it now seems Obama will win. That in turn (they claim, not me) will have a negative effect on markets. And the economy in general.

We'll see soon enough who is right about lots of different variables.

If you want to be successful investing do the opposite of whatever the clowns on CNBC tell you to do.

[maxdog]

If you want to be successful investing do the opposite of whatever the clowns on CNBC tell you to do.

Much truth to this statement.

[Chance]

If you want to be successful investing do the opposite of whatever the clowns on CNBC tell you to do.

Just tuned in when the market was down over 200 points and wanted to know what was going on. Think it's best to let proffessionals worry about markets. Having said that, not as big a fan of Obama economic policy as you are. Actually, not a big fan of anybody. Basically dislike some more than others.

[Rueda Tropical]

Just tuned in when the market was down over 200 points and wanted to know what was going on. Think it's best to let proffessionals worry about markets. Having said that, not as big a fan of Obama economic policy as you are. Actually, not a big fan of anybody. Basically dislike some more than others.

There is a lot I don't like about Obama's economic policy but I was commenting on the predictive abilities of CNBC not Presidential economic policy.

Go back and look at predictions of a tanking market, collapsing corporate profits and sky-rocketing treasury bond rates as lenders abandoned the US as a result of Obama's election 4 years ago. If you followed that advice and invested accordingly you would have gotten killed.

Stock prices doubled, corporate profits set record highs and investors have been lending money to the US by buying Treasuries at absurdly low rates. The absolute extreme opposite of all the predictions.

So take all the predictions based on who is in the White House and what the market moves on any given day means with a large grain of salt.

[oldpotatoe]

with all due respect, as a local in the business, i call BS on this one.

Well, I hope this 'other' bike shop is OK but this came from an industry marketing guy, who knows the general manager and he said it was pretty quiet there. Maybe it's the election..

[oldpotatoe]

Our shop is doing better than last year.

Overall, I am about 5% up from last year but this month, aye carumba, pretty slow.

[oldpotatoe]

Hey I got an fix. Fire Jim!!! He plays to much on Facebook anyways! :p :banana:

P.S. I hope you take this in jest.

Of course, we even have a tshirt with a guy crashing on a mountain bike..with the caption, 'FP'..Fookin' Potter'.....

Time to view this forum with some regularity during the day..interesting, kinda like my bicycle facebook(NO THANKS!!).

I know there are a few business owners on here...not many tho.

-Retail Ownership, the best and worst job there is.

[zap]

Overall, I am about 5% up from last year but this month, aye carumba, pretty slow.

One month does not make a trend......see what happens in November and December and post your results early next year.

Possible kids are still out riding in the nice weather and have not come in yet to get service work done?

[93legendti]

One month does not make a trend......see what happens in November and December and post your results early next year.

Possible kids are still out riding in the nice weather and have not come in yet to get service work done?

That's what I was going to post. 5% up in a down economy is good.

[sg8357]

Got it...how about BB's?

Those are Halloween decorations, Lance dresses up as Dr. Ferrari.

[Ahneida Ride]

HB is stable.

[Mr Cabletwitch]

I've seen a 5% increase in course revenue compared to this point last year, but most of that is due to having a great spring. This fall has really been pretty slow.

[redir]

I would think that having a record 3 months would be pretty normal to then drop down to a low. That's the way it worked in my guitar building and repair business anyway. If you supply the demand then you got to wait out a while. But I never really thought of any difference in election years. If anything it would be better as people want guitars to make protest songs :D