Olympic Men's Road Race: Your picks...[spoiler]

[retrofit]

Who are your picks for Saturday's road race?

Startlist (http://www.cyclingfever.com/editie.html?detp=view&_ap=startlijst&editie_idd=MjM0Nzc=)

Map (PDF) (http://www.london2012.com/mm/Document/Documents/Venue/01/25/42/32/cycling-road-race-route_Neutral.pdf) of 250k route with 9 circuits of Box Hill.

Route profile:
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8017/7632419056_ebaa96b7dc_c.jpg

[rice rocket]

Sagan.

[Vientomas]

Boonen

[merckx]

gilbert

[Karin Kirk]

Cavendish.

[MattTuck]

sagan, cancallara, boonen, gilbert, valverde. top 5

[Climb01742]

gilbert. unless his tour crashes have left him too dinged up. if not him, then luis león sánchez.

[christian]

Phil Sherwen, all evidence and logic to the contrary, says, "Matty Goss."

Personally, I can't bet against Cav here. I think his team will drag him over Box Hill and deliver him to 350m from the line. From there, it's up to him.

[wooly]

+1 for Cavendish. Strong team. Looked good pulling on one of the last TdF climbs.

[harryblack]

Cav, Greipel, Sagan

Side Q: is anyone 'lamenting' the absence of the Zabriskie, CVV, Leipheimer, Hincapie from the U.S. squad?

A: I thought not, and just want to re-iterate, they NEVER should have been considered in the first place, alleged delayed USADA suspensions or not.

Maybe Farrar can come in 12th like he did on the Champs and maintain the illusion he's a 'world class' sprinter a bit longer though?

[uno-speedo]

That's tough one to call.

Box Hill is easy, super smooth now they've resurfaced it. It'll be a piece of cake compared to what they've all ridden recently. On Headley, I think a break may form on Mill Way. It has a nasty climb leading into Nower Wood and Tyrrells Wood, but a good downhill approach into it. Perhaps some will struggle having done it 9 times?

I am excited, off-road riding to get to our viewing point. Beers will be consumed!

[MattTuck]

Cav, Greipel, Sagan

Side Q: is anyone 'lamenting' the absence of the Zabriskie, CVV, Leipheimer, Hincapie from the U.S. squad?

A: I thought not, and just want to re-iterate, they NEVER should have been considered in the first place, alleged delayed USADA suspensions or not.

Maybe Farrar can come in 12th like he did on the Champs and maintain the illusion he's a 'world class' sprinter a bit longer though?

peter Satan sounds more American than those you listed.

[Uncle Jam's Army]

Matt Goss

[LegendRider]

peter Satan sounds more American than those you listed.

He's devilishly fast.

[MattTuck]

Damn smartphone autocorrect. peter sagan.

[1centaur]

Does any national team besides Britain have the discipline to push hard over that hill nine times while protecting their sprinter? Cav will lose if going over those hills saps his legs and he pulls the plug before the last downhill (the one designed to make sure he's back in it). A lot of the sprinters mentioned won't have the teams to sap Cav without sapping their guy. Every circuit that's taken easily benefits Cav. If they ALL leave it to the last time up the hill, Cav will win, so Gilbert will try two hills from the end, and fail to make it stick.

Cav's the obvious bet

https://www.unibet.com/betting/grid/olympic-games/cycling/road-race-men/1000097074.odds

[rice rocket]

Does any national team besides Britain have the discipline to push hard over that hill nine times while protecting their sprinter?

The great thing about Sagan is he doesn't need to be protected. Kid goes out on his own and wins.

[Fixed]

ex world champ from Belgium tornado Tom might surprise
He stayed home from the tour to get ready
Cheers

[Wilkinson4]

Matt Goss

That would be awesome considering how close he got on so many stages this year:)

But, I gotta go with Cav.

mIKE

[rain dogs]

Can someone tell me if there is anything interesting about Box Hill. Based on the profile it looks like a nothing lump in the road that Cav will get over with no problems and then tear everyone elses faces off.

Unless I'm wrong, this Olympic course looks lame(ish) and seems to be set up for Cav to win with ease.

(Sorry for being a downer, but I wish they'd bring a course like in China)

[mtechnica]

Unless something goes wrong I don't see anyone being faster than Cav.

[Lovetoclimb]

The question for me is not "who may win" but "who do I want to win". And the answer is a resounding Sagan!

[ultraman6970]

Hmm... If they are able to disconnect cav from the team then he won't win at all.

FC wants this medal badly.
Sagan should win this one specially because he missed the last stage because as usual the little bird is like 100 meter behind everybody and with cav you have to sprint at his side or before and longer than he does.

Sagan or Cancellara, no pure sprinters will be able to make it to the final sprint. One day riders will go for this one.

[chromopromo]

Cav is going to be set-up for this one. If he didn't have the horses, I would go with Sagan. It will be fun to watch these two go at it in the future.

[JonB]

Luis Leon Sanchez
Rui Costa
Vincent Nibali


I have a hunch it won't stay together for the sprinters.

[ultraman6970]

Interesting trio, could work.

[retrofit]

I'm inclined to agree JonB about leaving the pure sprinters behind. If there isn't large breakaway, they might as well hand it to Sky, er I mean the Brits and Cav. I think the strong men -- the classics riders -- have to go long to neutralize Cav.

Here is a GPS profile (http://www.gpsies.com/map.do;jsessionid=15883140E17BAC3F860B5265BB35B2FB ?fileId=marckfxwoxohddpm) and more info on the Box Hill circuit (http://www.guardian.co.uk/travel/2012/may/06/bike-ride-box-hill-circuit):

"The Zig Zag Road, which has been likened to Alpe d'Huez in the French Alps, climbs 120m over 1.6 miles from the Mole Gap to the National Trust visitor centre at the summit before the route levels out...The Zig Zag Road has an average gradient of 4.9%...."
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8011/7634938350_461e433cfe_z.jpg

[Bob Loblaw]

There's an uphill finish apparently, which definitely favors Sagan. The amount of hills also favors Sagan.

However, Wiggins, Millar and Froome, or some combination thereof, working together to get Cav within 300 meters of the finish, will be pretty hard to match as we saw in the Tour.

BL

[MattTuck]

There's an uphill finish apparently, which definitely favors Sagan. The amount of hills also favors Sagan.

However, Wiggins, Millar and Froome, or some combination thereof, working together to get Cav within 300 meters of the finish, will be pretty hard to match as we saw in the Tour.

BL

Sagan represents the entire olympic cycling contingent from Slovakia. Maybe the Italians will let him ride their train, since he rides for an Italian team.

I think that everyone is favoring Cav, and the other riders know that. If they want a shot at victory, I think their only hope is to attack early and often and shatter the race as much as possible before the end. If Sky is intact with Cav over the last loop of Box Hill, I'd say his chance of a victory on average is in the 80% range. If you add in the fact he's on home soil that might bump it up an additional 15%.

[MattTuck]

An interesting analysis of the course.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/preview-london-2012-olympic-road-race-course

[rice rocket]

Is this being televised on the smattering of NBC channels?

[1centaur]

I believe it's on NBC itself at 5 am East Coast, from my cursory look at listings. I plan to Tivo it.

I'm surprised in that CyclingNews piece that someone thinks 40 seconds off the bottom of the last hill will be enough to stay away. To me, 55K is more than enough for a dedicated team to pull Cav back - that's why I said the course was designed for him. The GB team might choose to stay safe on the 9 hills and put their effort into the chase, but I think it's more likely they have practiced a Sky-like hard fast tempo designed around intimate road knowledge that will make a breakaway particularly painful, then they'll use the 55 km to mop up.

Think about what Sagan would need to do to be in a break, and who would ride hard knowing he was there? Would even Gilbert try to ride with Sagan and hope to win? He needs a team or to be in a big group and he should have neither.

All that said, the rough road surface and dangerous corners all hint at a British tragedy, allowing the "Cav would have won if he hadn't been caught in that crash" sob stories that make up so much of the British character. GB needs to ride with precision, discipline and dedication, then they'll need some luck. That's what makes it interesting before it starts. If something happens to Cav, the race will get wide open. Is Sagan even going to recce the course maniacally considering all the permutations? I'm thinking if Cav is not in the mix it will be a chancer making a great decision at the right time from a small group that got too much time in some confusion behind them, in the mold of Gerrans at MSR.

[reggiebaseball]

I'm inclined to agree JonB about leaving the pure sprinters behind. If there isn't large breakaway, they might as well hand it to Sky, er I mean the Brits and Cav. I think the strong men -- the classics riders -- have to go long to neutralize Cav.

Here is a GPS profile (http://www.gpsies.com/map.do;jsessionid=15883140E17BAC3F860B5265BB35B2FB ?fileId=marckfxwoxohddpm) and more info on the Box Hill circuit (http://www.guardian.co.uk/travel/2012/may/06/bike-ride-box-hill-circuit):

"The Zig Zag Road, which has been likened to Alpe d'Huez in the French Alps, climbs 120m over 1.6 miles from the Mole Gap to the National Trust visitor centre at the summit before the route levels out...The Zig Zag Road has an average gradient of 4.9%...."
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8011/7634938350_461e433cfe_z.jpg

Listen, I climb 120m over the course of 1.6 miles every day, and it ain't Alp D'Huez. MAybe it zigs and zags, but so does my driveway.

Alp D'Huez is approximately 10 times that length at twice the grade.

Anyway, the Olympics are in London, half of team sky plus two elites make up the British team, the course was laid out with some idea of who Cavendish is... I think it would be a major stunner if anyone but the Manx missile crosses that line first.

[Elefantino]

Cav ... only if LESLEY GARRETT DOES NOT SING THE ANTHEM.

[MattTuck]

"Hey, this is Tommeke, leave a message... BEEP"

"Tommy! It's Fabian. What do you say we make a little date. You. Me. Base of the last climb up the hill. Sagan can come too if he is going to pull."

[Frankwurst]

Cav. But let us not forget that it is a race and a big one at that so alot of the players will leave all their stones on the course.:beer:

[justinrchan]

I think: Boonen
Probably: Cavendish
I hope: Farrar

[scooter]

boonen, ll sanchez, cancellara, gilbert, valverde, evans - top 6

[tiretrax]

How much of a difference maker is not having a team? Sagan and Hjesedal are riding solo, as are a few others. I think Team Sky/Great Britian are going to blow everyone out.

Which NBC channel will have this?

[christian]

Listen, I climb 120m over the course of 1.6 miles every day, and it ain't Alp D'Huez. MAybe it zigs and zags, but so does my driveway.No doubt. The hill in my back yard climbs 100m over 0.8 miles. I'd call it a "steepish hill," but I climb it in a 39-23 and I'm a fat desk jockey. Professional cyclists would barely notice it.

[climbgdh]

"Hey, this is Tommeke, leave a message... BEEP"

"Tommy! It's Fabian. What do you say we make a little date. You. Me. Base of the last climb up the hill. Sagan can come too if he is going to pull."

+1...... i expect they've already talked!!:)

[damocles]

Would love to see Boonen win this thing... My pick is Cav though.

[mike p]

The Brit's have to be the heavy favorites. Very strong team all willing to kill themselves for cav. If it comes down to a sprint cav Will deliver. The American team though very young (exception Horner) does not look terrible, but I have no faith in Tyler to finish it off. Can't wait to see it!

Mike

[bheight1]

Edvald

[Joachim]

Gilbert... Cav takes bunch sprint for silver and vows never to help Wiggins again in the Tour.

[Fixed]

Would love to see Boonen win this thing... My pick is Cav though.

Me too :)
Cheers

[bozman]

Boonen.

My wild card is Taylor Phinney. I would love to see him steal the show.

[FlashUNC]

I'll take a flyer on one of our own: Timmy Duggan. He managed to slip away at Nationals. Don't see why he couldn't repeat here.

Realistically? If team GB does a repeat of the World's and keeps this thing together, it will be Cav's race to lose.

[MattTuck]

I'll take a flyer on one of our own: Timmy Duggan. He managed to slip away at Nationals. Don't see why he couldn't repeat here.

Realistically? If team GB does a repeat of the World's and keeps this thing together, it will be Cav's race to lose.

I might be a contrarian by nature, and when so many people are picking Cav, I think it's going to be an extremely combative and attacking race. 90% of the field has done the same math as we have and know that if it comes down to a bunch sprint that Cav will likely take it. If they want any chance to win, they'll be attacking thick and fast.

And I wouldn't discount two things happening, a break getting away, and then teams playing chicken with GB on who will bring it back. I don't think another team is going to pull it back knowing that GB is so organized for Cav.

And with no one worrying about 'tomorrow', like they do at the tour, more people are going to be willing to put in big and sustained attacks. Combine that with the smaller team GB has compared to trade teams, and thus less firepower for chasing down breaks and pushing a lead-out train for 3-5km... and that everyone knows their playbook.

I'd vote against Cav.

[FlashUNC]

I might be a contrarian by nature, and when so many people are picking Cav, I think it's going to be an extremely combative and attacking race. 90% of the field has done the same math as we have and know that if it comes down to a bunch sprint that Cav will likely take it. If they want any chance to win, they'll be attacking thick and fast.

And I wouldn't discount two things happening, a break getting away, and then teams playing chicken with GB on who will bring it back. I don't think another team is going to pull it back knowing that GB is so organized for Cav.

And with no one worrying about 'tomorrow', like they do at the tour, more people are going to be willing to put in big and sustained attacks. Combine that with the smaller team GB has compared to trade teams, and thus less firepower for chasing down breaks and pushing a lead-out train for 3-5km... and that everyone knows their playbook.

I'd vote against Cav.

Normally, I'd agree. But Team GB did such a good job shutting anything and everything down at the Worlds that the race became more or less a formality. Even though going into that race everyone knew GB's plan, no one could stop it. This is a bit hillier course, so that might play into it, but I don't see this boiling down to anything but a bunch sprint.

[torquer]

Can someone tell me if there is anything interesting about Box Hill.
Ask Richard Thompson

Said Red Molly to James that's a fine motorbike
A girl could feel special on any such like
Said James to Red Molly, well my hat's off to you
It's a Vincent Black Lightning, 1952
And I've seen you at the corners and cafes it seems
Red hair and black leather, my favorite color scheme
And he pulled her on behind
And down to Box Hill they did ride

[harlond]

"Hey, this is Tommeke, leave a message... BEEP"

"Tommy! It's Fabian. What do you say we make a little date. You. Me. Base of the last climb up the hill. Sagan can come too if he is going to pull."FC can't beat either of those guys in a sprint. Unless his goal is the bronze, he'd be crazy to pull with those guys, unless there's a hill in the last 40-50K that he thinks he could get away on. And there isn't much in the way of a hill in that span. To me, his options look like the long solo in from Box Hill or the escape with 1-2K to go.

The German and Australian teams are very strong. I don't think fear of Cav will keep them from wanting to bring it together at the end. Cav, Greipel, Goss are my picks.

[54ny77]

maybe there will on-the-road alliances to prevent cav from winning?

this year should make for some great racing regardless. :cool:

[choke]

If I'm going to go for a longshot I might as well go big.....Vino.

[MattTuck]

FC can't beat either of those guys in a sprint. Unless his goal is the bronze, he'd be crazy to pull with those guys, unless there's a hill in the last 40-50K that he thinks he could get away on. And there isn't much in the way of a hill in that span. To me, his options look like the long solo in from Box Hill or the escape with 1-2K to go.

The German and Australian teams are very strong. I don't think fear of Cav will keep them from wanting to bring it together at the end. Cav, Greipel, Goss are my picks.

Really that was more of a joke, and an allusion to how they both won Paris Roubaix (FC in 2010 and TB this year) by going from a long way out. Wasn't suggesting that they'd really have an alliance.

[Hawker]

Good article with Horner here about team strategy. Should be fun to watch and I hope Horner does well. Would also be cool to see Phinney do something. I think the best his dad did was fifth.

http://velonews.competitor.com/2012/07/news/horner-talks-u-s-team-tactics-for-the-london-olympics_231839

[Charles M]

In the case that SKy rideers somehow manage to have 60% of strongest riders in the final selection as was the case for the tour, I would guess the uk get gold.

Bunch sprint means Cav baring a non speed related event. Nobody else is even close to that guy.

[retrofit]

Paolo Bettini's strategy (http://italiancyclingjournal.blogspot.com/2012/07/italy-gets-ready-for-olympic-mens-road.html) for the Italian team: a 40k breakaway with Nibali, or if that doesn't work, take on Cav with Elia Viviani. (Who?)

[1centaur]

The last 40k is in the section designed for Cav to catch up. If a break of strong riders goes away from the GB team at that point, Cav will have crashed already.

[GregL]

1. Cav
2. Sagan
3. Boonen

We'll see how it pans out Saturday...

[uno-speedo]

GB Olympic bikes...they look fast but that stem/bar is ugly!

http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/latest/534102/bradley-wiggins-uksi-olympic-bike.html

https://default.secure.media.ipcdigital.co.uk/11141%7C000007e44%7Ceac8_Bradley-Wiggins-UKSI-Olympic-bike.jpg

[laupsi]

if there is a break and it goes to the end, who then?

no one has mentioned Cadel Evans. he was in bad form for the TDF but if he's in a break, is in good form and can turn up the heat enough, he just may have a chance. a lot of "ifs and buts" I know...

[torquer]

Thanks, uno-speedo, for that image and link. Agree about its fugliness, but at least they've put the brake calipers in the right places!

Is any other nation's squad going to be riding special-for-the-olympics road bikes? I realize many GB riders came out of their national track program, but it still seems like a big adjustment for riders who've logged thousands of kms on pro team bikes to suddenly find themselves on these. Let's hope they at least get to keep their preferred saddles!

[laupsi]

still don't understand the need for wheel magnets for sensors. at this level you would think they'd go to wheels utilizing current technology

[torquer]

... or if that doesn't work, take on Cav with Elia Viviani. (Who?)
Maybe not so farfetched: strong track background, light early-season schedule recovering from injuries, history of winning road stages requiring getting over climbs.
http://velonews.competitor.com/tag/elia-viviani
I like how he looked last year in Colorado; level of competition hardly what it will be tomorrow, but impressive nonetheless.

[thwart]

If I'm going to go for a longshot I might as well go big.....Vino.

Amazingly prescient.

[retrofit]

Hey choke, it may be time to buy a lottery ticket:banana:

[choke]

Hey choke, it may be time to buy a lottery ticket:banana:Heh....no kidding. Unfortunately I'd have to go a few hundred miles to buy one....

[maxdog]

can someone tell me if there is anything interesting about box hill. Based on the profile it looks like a nothing lump in the road that cav will get over with no problems and then tear everyone elses faces off.

Unless i'm wrong, this olympic course looks lame(ish) and seems to be set up for cav to win with ease.

(sorry for being a downer, but i wish they'd bring a course like in china)

+1 YEAH, and he still couldn't do it!