OT-shades of the Cold War

[oldpotatoe]

Russia invades parts of Ukraine/ Crimea.

It'll be interesting to see how the EU responds.

[Vientomas]

Disturbing events.

[Rada]

Originally Posted by oldpotatoe

Russia invades parts of Ukraine/ Crimea.

It'll be interesting to see how the EU responds.

Or more likely how the EU doesn't respond.

[saab2000]

Originally Posted by Rada

Or more likely how the EU doesn't respond.

Sadly, this...

[FlashUNC]

Russia's not going to let their very real strategic interests in the Crimea -- access to the Black Sea, oil and gas lines, etc -- fall out of their control, particularly when that area of the Ukraine is rather firmly pro-Russia.

I hate to get rather realpolitik about it, but there has to be a careful calculus about this. It worth starting a war over?

I think the likeliest scenario is some kind of breakup of Ukraine.

[witcombusa]

Originally Posted by Rada

Or more likely how the EU doesn't respond.

So long as WE don't respond, I'm good with that.

[oldpotatoe]

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

Russia's not going to let their very real strategic interests in the Crimea -- access to the Black Sea, oil and gas lines, etc -- fall out of their control, particularly when that area of the Ukraine is rather firmly pro-Russia.

I hate to get rather realpolitik about it, but there has to be a careful calculus about this. It worth starting a war over?

I think the likeliest scenario is some kind of breakup of Ukraine.

Me too. Ukraine proper doesn't want to be under Putin's thumb, Crimea doesn't want to leave Russian influence.

Black Sea is a Russian bathtub, they won't give up Sevastopol.

Unless the Russian navy moves south thru the straits toward the Med., the USA bathtub, I don't think the US/NATO will do anything. Certainly no ships into the Black Sea, no way out.

USA and Putin already on record, EU pretty quiet, very much a debating society like the UN. Ditherers, dithering.

[wildboar]

But, but...

http://usatthebiglead.files.wordpres...ear-crying.gif

[Fixed]

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

Russia's not going to let their very real strategic interests in the Crimea -- access to the Black Sea, oil and gas lines, etc -- fall out of their control, particularly when that area of the Ukraine is rather firmly pro-Russia.

I hate to get rather realpolitik about it, but there has to be a careful calculus about this. It worth starting a war over?

I think the likeliest scenario is some kind of breakup of Ukraine.

Sadly I think we would do the same thing if our security was compromised
Cheers

[exapkib]

Really hard to watch--I had the good fortune to live in Ukraine for a number of years, and it's frustrating and heartbreaking to watch things unravel.

Life in Ukraine over the past decade has given people plenty to be frustrated about, but the manipulation of East/West animosity to turn Ukrainians against each other is just hard to watch.

Talking to friends over there, people are angry, people are scared, and it's hard to see an clean resolution to the situation on the ground.

[Ozz]

it goes back further than the cold war....look back 160 years and "the great game"!

just read Clancy/Greany's new book a couple months ago...seems like it is playing out in real life.

[gdw]

Unfortunately the invasion was inevitable. Putin isn't going to give up the Black Sea and is also trying to restore the territories lost after the breakup of the Soviet Union.... the EU, UN, and US are powerless to stop the occupation. Obama will talk but take no action since it's too late to boycott the Olympics.

[PQJ]

Originally Posted by oldpotatoe

Russia invades parts of Ukraine/ Crimea.

It'll be interesting to see how the EU responds.

"Next time, Vlad, dispense with the pretense and don't wait till after the Olympics. No need to delay Russia's megalo ... er ... hegemonic imperatives in order to host a sporting spectacle promoting peace and international goodwill."

[vqdriver]

I'm watching these developments with much interest. Funny how things seem so different as an adult and when I was in high school when the Soviet Union collapsed.

[mgm777]

No way the US gets involved, militarily. Too volatile. Putin doing his best to protect his national resources. Russia is a third world country trying to portray itself as a first world superpower, again. Putin hasn't shed his former KGB self yet. Hmmmmm.