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#61
07-01-2015, 11:51 AM
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In fairness, Piketty's not an easy, breezy read. Most guys that displayed that hardback book I honestly think used it as a prop to strike up conversations with women. You'd see it either carried by blokes standing in the street while waiting for their dinner table or on the table in the street cafe. Sigh. East side Manhattan night life. I'd laugh because I'd point out to Mrs. fuzz the guy that was carrying around the Lewis book Flash Boys and say that he was the stupid one. [edit P.S. Alluding jokingly to the possibility that this guy first tried to read Piketty and after 10 pages quit. Needing to find another book on "high finance", "Wall Street" or "computer trading" to impress some amorous-intended pretty with and settled on the Lewis book. Now that book, he could handle!] I'm outta the loop, I dunno what the hot book is this summer season. Last edited by fuzzalow; 07-01-2015 at 04:36 PM. Reason: You know what they say,if you gotta explain the joke... |
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#62
07-01-2015, 01:23 PM
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#64
07-08-2015, 08:12 PM
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#65
07-08-2015, 08:18 PM
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Especially bad in China. That is a mess from the top to the bottom.
Technical analysis (investing using chart patterns) in part reflects an underlying assumption/history that much of the market is using fundamental analysis (what a company is supposedly worth). When a market starts up that is based 100% on chart patterns, it can become unmoored really, really badly. When "investors" have no clue what something is worth and just hope it will either go up because it's been going up or because the government will make it happen, the potential for panicked capitulation without a fundamental net is really high. Charlatans posing as market gurus and spouting market propaganda to keep retail money in the market will create lasting damage on several levels. I read that Chinese gamblers will bet on a streak of red continuing in roulette readily, and they apply the same mentality to stock investing. We are seeing just about every investing and regulatory error known to man over the course of a few months. It will make a hell of a book but boy is it bad for a lot of people. |
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#66
07-08-2015, 08:40 PM
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And even if it's (1), you did incredibly well until very recently and are still up for the year (probably not for long) and by now you should be used to volatility. |
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#67
07-08-2015, 09:07 PM
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Thanks to this thread being resurrected last week, I was reminded to live by my convictions.
Made $2K off a $500 bet on puts on FXI. I closed the position before the close today because I didn't want to risk my gains. I'll probably regret that... but I don't feel so bad. I'll earmark that for a new frame in retirement (since it was in my IRA) 
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And we have just one world, But we live in different ones |
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#69
07-09-2015, 07:07 AM
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No, seriously. Yes, it is a small amount and I wouldn't advise anyone to truly gamble with their retirement. But a few small bets here and there I don't think are too bad -- especially if they are based on sound reasoning. If I had gone with a cheaper (more out of the money contract), I bet I could have done 10x on my original investment. And, think if I had put my WHOLE nest egg into that trade... Now, that would have been nice.  As an aside, China was up huge last night. So I got out at the right time. Now, shall I make another bet that they're in for another slide?  Daddy needs a new gravel bike!
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And we have just one world, But we live in different ones |
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#70
07-09-2015, 01:43 PM
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As for the OP, repeat this - "Thou shall only review the account balance quarterly" It will help you to make smart decisions. Set up limits and rules, follow them, and you will have no problems long term. |
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#71
07-09-2015, 03:00 PM
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#72
07-09-2015, 07:29 PM
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A huge section of the population that is doing the actual "investing" are the elderly and they simply have no exposure to market concepts. Its not that they are stupid, its just that its hard to for us to understand a lifetime of thinking/living/earning within a very controlled environment. A survey in China showed 2/3 of the accounts opened in the last 3 months were by people with less than a high school education. Now the government has dropped the requirements for holding margin accounts open and provided avenues for them to borrow against their apartments to buy stocks. Very irresponsible. Its using one bubble to feed another. That said it would not surprise me to see the SCI flatten out and hold 3400-3600. I mean after all, they halted trading on half the index. If people think its going back up they will jump in with both feet. Here's a link to a video I shot in Beijing a couple weeks ago that is funny. I was out on the bike and it started raining like mad so I ducked for cover under an eave at a bank. Along with me were a bunch of 3 wheel cart drivers (delivery, taxi etc). Within seconds they break out a deck of cards and start gambling away in the bank window. Great guys, very nice people, but to them the stock market is just gambling, a different way, and all their neighbors were winning so they had to play too. |
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#73
07-13-2015, 05:55 PM
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Deal on Greek Debt Crisis Is Reached, but Long Road Remains
Disaster averted. All the bluster and swagger by Tsipras/Syriza tamped down to also not be a disaster. No need for anyone to beat their chest, there is serious and substantial hard work ahead for the Greek government. I wish them all great fortune and fortitude in seeing this through. This could just be kicking the can down the road, again, for the Greeks but I think even they know that a cat has but nine lives and Germany is double counting Greece's third bailout in five years because they're tired of the bulls_it. The first move and rebuilding of credibility always rested with the Greeks - there is so much of their economy and politics that is dysfunctional. But if they get serious and rebuild their economy & credibility, I'd bet that the German position will soften over time towards writing off some of the debt. But the Greeks have to earn it first to reap the benefit. |
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#75
07-13-2015, 06:15 PM
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The different mindset between a "typical" German and what may be "typical" Greek attitudes seems to be very different. My sister-in-law went to Germany for post-grad work in 1972 and stayed because she liked it there so well. Listening to her "typical German" attitude over the years has been enlightening. She said she and her friends were rather appalled to discover after reunification that "The Osties" from East Germany were not used to working as hard and taking care of themselves (vs. government handouts) as those Germans in the West.
So I don't really know what a "typical Greek" attitude to all this is but I can understand many Germans expecting/demanding that Everyone ought to buckle down as they do.
Last edited by Ken Robb; 07-13-2015 at 09:42 PM. |
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