OT: Stock Market Watch, October, '15

[MattTuck]

Originally Posted by goonster

It's really an indictment of the EU that they can't weather this storm, and I think a lot of people in positions of power will live to regret that they did not do more to meet Greece a little closer to halfway.

Recently a smart person cast Schaueble as the "Javert" in this narrative, but that's his job, and there are others whose job it should be to keep him in check.

I'd agree with that. The EU leadership isn't really interested in helping Greece, as much as it is concerned that it will set a precedent in how it deals with Greece (because of the other peripherals), that will handcuff it in the future.

The cost to deal with Greece (forgive all the debt) is probably doable. The problem then lies when Spain, Portugal and Italy start having problems. Those debts are still held by banks (as opposed to Greek sovereign debt which I think is now almost entirely held by the European Central Bank), and have a much bigger potential for crisis.

And so we get back to this issue, the EU wants Greece to do what's best for the EU. Greece does need to make structural reforms, but it should do it for the good of the people in Greece, not to appease the paymasters in Brussels.

I have a good friend who is from Greece and works with me. It is a sad state of affairs. The economy there is in tatters. Most of the driven/high achieving people have left the country. His mom is still there, and he advised her a while ago to take her money out of the banking system. It is an absolute loss of confidence across the whole country. It is much more than a run on banks.

[54ny77]

Yup.

Originally Posted by MattTuck

Agree with Doug that this has become a tyranny run from Brussels. Greece has to do what's best for its people; not what's best for the European Union.

[Anarchist]

Syriza was elected on lies.

They ran on lies and they were elected on lies.

There was never a chance that their gamble, and that is what it was, with the populace as the chips, would succeed.

So now Tsipras has failed to live up to his lies and frames a bizarre referendum question designed to have the populace give him a hiding place from his lies.

An abject failure to lead or govern and no attempt to recover, rather a cynical attempt to hold power.

The people of Greece will suffer terrible because Tsipras lied, and failed.

"telos pia ta psemmata"

[slidey]

I really don't have a position on the Greek fiasco - just trying to learn as much as possible.

However, I found a comment by the Chinese premier to bankroll Greece's debt as very interesting. I find myself trying to play forward that scenario a decade or two.

[54ny77]

They already bankroll the U.S.

Am surprised (and thankful) to not hear of violent protests, etc. We were there circa '07 and there was quite a bit of tension goin' on politically (riots and whatnot).

Hopefully calm heads prevail politically and the economic situation sorts itself out.

Originally Posted by slidey

I really don't have a position on the Greek fiasco - just trying to learn as much as possible.

However, I found a comment by the Chinese premier to bankroll Greece's debt as very interesting. I find myself trying to play forward that scenario a decade or two.

[slidey]

Originally Posted by 54ny77

They already bankroll the U.S.

Am surprised (and thankful) to not hear of violent protests, etc. We were there circa '07 and there was quite a bit of tension goin' on politically (riots and whatnot).

Hopefully calm heads prevail politically and the economic situation sorts itself out.

True - I too am quite impressed with the decorum.

On the one hand it seems that the Greeks have spoken via their govt and by not pulling the rug from under them (and, kudos to the govt for translating their words into actions), while on the other hand I get the feeling that the general spirit/morale of the Greeks has been sapped.

Closer to home, it'll be interesting to see what steps Puerto Rico takes now.

[Tony T]

Where's the "OT: Stock Market Rise Today 7/01!" thread?

[Jeff N.]

It starts here!

[slidey]

Originally Posted by Tony T

Where's the "OT: Stock Market Rise Today 7/01!" thread?

I'm sure you know it, but here's my understanding of why such threads don't usually make it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion

[MattTuck]

slidey laying down some prospect theory in this house!!

[fuzzalow]

Originally Posted by MattTuck

slidey laying down some prospect theory in this house!!

Theory it is all right. Gimme something I can use.
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator Hardcover – October 4, 2004 by Edwin LefÃ..vre (Author), William J. O'Neil (Foreword)



I read this book over 20 years ago. It's only one piece in a puzzle of hundreds of pieces. I think there's equal insight from The Beatles "Money (That's What I Want)"

Money don't get everything it's true
What it don't get, I can't use
Now give me money
That's what I want
That's what I want, yeah
That's what I want

[Tony T]

Yeah, "Jesse Livermore". Many see him as one of the Stock Markets "best traders" I read a couple of books about him, and I don't share that opinion. He did great before SEC regulation (especially during the crashes of 1907 and 1929, which leads me to believe that he traded on insider info). He made and lost a lot before regulation, but after regulation, he lost it all and ended up committing suicide.

[fuzzalow]

Originally Posted by Tony T

Yeah, "Jesse Livermore". Many see him as one of the Stock Markets "best traders" I read a couple of books about him, and I don't share that opinion. He did great before SEC regulation (especially during the crashes of 1907 and 1929, which leads me to believe that he traded on insider info). He made and lost a lot before regulation, but after regulation, he lost it all and ended up committing suicide.

No disagreement there. But frankly, anybody that read that book looking for a tutorial on what and how to trade is looking for the wrong thing. The book is a classic and IMO all its value is in the subtleties. That's all I could remember about it. Maybe the best value in the book is just to be able to say that you've read it!

Kinda like how the Piketty book last summer was the fashionable book to claim to have read when most blokes that paraded that book around didn't actually read it!

[slidey]

Originally Posted by MattTuck

slidey laying down some prospect theory in this house!!

Man, I had to look up 'prospect theory'. My knowledge of some of these ideas come from listening to too much Freakonomics.

[MattTuck]

Originally Posted by fuzzalow

No disagreement there. But frankly, anybody that read that book looking for a tutorial on what and how to trade is looking for the wrong thing. The book is a classic and IMO all its value is in the subtleties. That's all I could remember about it. Maybe the best value in the book is just to be able to say that you've read it!

Kinda like how the Piketty book last summer was the fashionable book to claim to have read when most blokes that paraded that book around didn't actually read it!

Saw a guy walking around with a shirt that said, "r > g", and I tried to strike up a conversation. "Is that in reference to the Piketty book?" He looked confused and then fumbled through some explanation involving inequality... needless to say, I'm not sure he even knew where it came from.