OT: Stock Market Watch, October, '15

[jh_on_the_cape]

Is this a good time to buy a group from a uk vendor? Or wait?

[verticaldoug]

Originally Posted by jh_on_the_cape

Is this a good time to buy a group from a uk vendor? Or wait?

UK is GBP not Euro. Since UK elections are over, the weakness vs USD is probably over. So yes, but for different reasons.

[verticaldoug]

I hope the Greeks vote No. Tsipras gambit here is pretty clever in my opinion. The bureaucrats in Brussels and German don't really like pan-European democracy. The EU is largely become a tyranny of the bureaucrats. By calling a vote, Tsipras strengthens his hand by calling out the bureaucrats as being illegitimate and letting the people decide.

I think this vote is more dangerous to the bureaucrats in Brussels, but they are too arrogant to see it that way. Post 2008, the world has largely been ruled by technocrats in Treasury and Central Banks which have tended to enrich a few at the expense of the many. The austerity program for Greece has largely become the bureaucratic catch-22. The greeks spend too much money so they need austerity to pay their debts. Austerity causes drop in GDP so tax revenues fall and they can't pay their debts. They need more austerity. (repeat)

Ultimately, Greece needs a large haircut on it's outstanding debt. Unfortunately, the debt is held by the sovereigns (52b Germany, 49b France, 39b Italy). Bureaucrats are happy to writedown (cramdown) debt when the holders are private creditors, but very reluctant when owned by the sovs. (Bureaucrats). The world democracies should hope Greeks are brave and vote 'No'.

[rnhood]

Disagree. Tsipras cowered by calling a referendum. They elected him primarily on his stance against austerity, and his perceived ability to resolve the crisis. Now that it has fallen though the floor and his political career is on the line, he is trying to pass off accountability to the people. Why did he not reveal his intention long ago? He is a no show. They need to give him the boot.

The wise thing to do is vote "yes" and live with it. And I think the people will vote yes. If the debt is written down then there will soon be other countries standing in line for theirs to be written down too. Its unsustainable. They need to get their financial house in order.

[paulh]

Wait just a doggone minute! Isn't Greece flush with cash from the 2004 Olympics??

[binxnyrwarrsoul]

Originally Posted by 54ny77

Can you predict if Campy will come out with an all alloy Super Record group?

That's what matters.

Plus about one trillion!

[jr59]

Originally Posted by rnhood

Disagree. They need to get their financial house in order.

I don't think this is in question. The question comes as to how we get to this fact. What is sustainable?

I'm not sure how the best plan to arrive at this, w/o upsetting the world's apple cart, or the EU markets if you will.

As far as the markets go, well, I've said for a long time, that people aren't playing fair in these things. The avg joe, or in the case of my forum friends, above avg joes have zero chance of knowing or 1/2 guessing what the markets will do.

[happycampyer]

Greece is in a no-win situation. A "yes" vote prolongs the agony, a "no" vote accelerates the agony. If the Greeks find it inconvenient that the banks are closed for the week and they can only withdraw Eur60 a day (assuming there are notes in the ATM), at least there will still be food on the shelves at the end of the week. A return to the drachma will be wrenching, financially. Anyone with euro-denominated debt will struggle to repay it, if they aren't forced to default. Long term it will probably be better, but in the short term it will be chaos. That of course assumes that the Russians don't step in to bail Greece out, which is probably the worst of three evils.

[oldpotatoe]

Originally Posted by biker72

Looks like a good "buy" opportunity to me.

What my 'guy' mentioned as well. Long term investment, even if small.

[LouDeeter]

I traveled in Eastern Europe last year, all formerly communist countries. The countries there that aren't in the EU are very much wanting to join, i.e. the former countries formed from Yugoslavia. It means outside investment, improved quality for their products because of the standards demanded by the west, and ease of commerce because of the Euro (although being in the EU doesn't mean you use the Euro). While Greece may still do business with the west if they opt out of the Euro Union, the fact is that the EU will move the allocations for products previously given to Greece to other EU countries. Greece will have to open new markets with non-EU countries if they are to survive a no vote. While I agree that the EU countries can be demanding, opting out is like shooting yourself in the foot just to say that you can.

[MattTuck]

Originally Posted by verticaldoug

I hope the Greeks vote No. Tsipras gambit here is pretty clever in my opinion. The bureaucrats in Brussels and German don't really like pan-European democracy. The EU is largely become a tyranny of the bureaucrats. By calling a vote, Tsipras strengthens his hand by calling out the bureaucrats as being illegitimate and letting the people decide.

I think this vote is more dangerous to the bureaucrats in Brussels, but they are too arrogant to see it that way. Post 2008, the world has largely been ruled by technocrats in Treasury and Central Banks which have tended to enrich a few at the expense of the many. The austerity program for Greece has largely become the bureaucratic catch-22. The greeks spend too much money so they need austerity to pay their debts. Austerity causes drop in GDP so tax revenues fall and they can't pay their debts. They need more austerity. (repeat)

Ultimately, Greece needs a large haircut on it's outstanding debt. Unfortunately, the debt is held by the sovereigns (52b Germany, 49b France, 39b Italy). Bureaucrats are happy to writedown (cramdown) debt when the holders are private creditors, but very reluctant when owned by the sovs. (Bureaucrats). The world democracies should hope Greeks are brave and vote 'No'.

Originally Posted by happycampyer

Greece is in a no-win situation. A "yes" vote prolongs the agony, a "no" vote accelerates the agony. If the Greeks find it inconvenient that the banks are closed for the week and they can only withdraw Eur60 a day (assuming there are notes in the ATM), at least there will still be food on the shelves at the end of the week. A return to the drachma will be wrenching, financially. Anyone with euro-denominated debt will struggle to repay it, if they aren't forced to default. Long term it will probably be better, but in the short term it will be chaos. That of course assumes that the Russians don't step in to bail Greece out, which is probably the worst of three evils.

Originally Posted by LouDeeter

I traveled in Eastern Europe last year, all formerly communist countries. The countries there that aren't in the EU are very much wanting to join, i.e. the former countries formed from Yugoslavia. It means outside investment, improved quality for their products because of the standards demanded by the west, and ease of commerce because of the Euro (although being in the EU doesn't mean you use the Euro). While Greece may still do business with the west if they opt out of the Euro Union, the fact is that the EU will move the allocations for products previously given to Greece to other EU countries. Greece will have to open new markets with non-EU countries if they are to survive a no vote. While I agree that the EU countries can be demanding, opting out is like shooting yourself in the foot just to say that you can.

The challenges for Greece are large if they go their own way, but not insurmountable. The country's economy is about the size of Los Angeles. In other words, it is manageable. We're not talking the default/collapse of a world power here.

Agree with Doug that this has become a tyranny run from Brussels. Greece has to do what's best for its people; not what's best for the European Union.

[Tony T]

Originally Posted by oldpotatoe

What my 'guy' mentioned as well. Long term investment, even if small.

Well, I don't disagree, but instead of starting the chart at the low (and ignoring the financial crisis), better to look at a 10 year chart:

[MattTuck]

or, we can go back further and actually adjust for inflation.

[goonster]

Originally Posted by MattTuck

Greece has to do what's best for its people; not what's best for the European Union.

It's really an indictment of the EU that they can't weather this storm, and I think a lot of people in positions of power will live to regret that they did not do more to meet Greece a little closer to halfway.

Recently a smart person cast Schaueble as the "Javert" in this narrative, but that's his job, and there are others whose job it should be to keep him in check.

[fuzzalow]

Originally Posted by goonster

It is very easy to see past other people's suffering.

I was not trivializing their hardship. I was rationalizing that most Greek voters may not foresee the myriad of consequences and unknowns in casting their referendum ballot. And resort to a desire to cease what they do not wish to endure any longer without considering what might happen next. After all, the average person is neither a political strategist nor an expert at int'l finance. What is happening here has few experts even among the experts.

What's the upside to a Yes vote? How is the economy supposed to grow? Where is the light at the end of the tunnel? Any halfway red-blooded American with a pulse and a set of b***s in this scenario would vote No. With a bullet.

In any sort of rational endgame, the creditors take a haircut to stave off default, so why won't they take a hit here?

(Don't bother. I know. I'm German . . . )

The entire drama is an exercise in int'l political gamesmanship. With much at stake. IMO the upside of a Yes vote is it buys everyone more time. It does not potentially start a avalanche of events that have drastic and uncertain consequences in reshaping the world order, both from the EU, Int'l finance and the NATO geopolitical perspectives.

The fact that any voter with a set of balls would vote No is just the sort of political copout resorted to by Syriza/Tsipras in calling this referendum. The only good from a winning No referendum might be not an exit from the EU but a stronger bargaining hand held by Tsipras in dealing with Merkel.

The answer is not more austerity. I think even the Germans know this but they must have assurances that the Greeks recast their economy, society and internal political structures to not be the corrupt, non-growth, public welfare & pensioned leisure state as it largely exists now. That is a big nut to crack and in fairness to the Germans, they can't write Greek debt off and come out of this with everything the same as before in Greece.

Germany/France/Benelux will eventually write off the debt, if there is given enough time to allow this unpleasant reality to take hold in the collective consciousness of the large EU creditor nations. But especially Germany. I think this is Germany's first real sacrifice as a world leader nation in their crucial role in saving the EU. They will lead by the strength of their economy and political will in writing off the debt to save and preserve the unity of the EU. Not unlike the burden and sacrifice the United States has made post-WW2 in forging and strengthening effective unions and alliances. Such is the role Germany has and must step up into in preserving the EU. Welcome to the world stage as a lead country, they have arrived.

I do not see this as any kind of conspiracy of the technocrats, bureaucrats or central bankers. That oversimplifies a complex problem to the impossible designs and machinations of villains with powers that don't exist.