World Championships Discussion (With Spoilers)

[ultraman6970]

I was checking at the rosters by country and this year's elite race feels like there's no favs at all, like anything can happen...

Rigoberto Uran.
Peter Sagan.
Gaviria
GVA.
TD???? this sucker is flying, he should be the designated rider for the dutch in a matter of fact he could get to the line solo, and that could make us forget Froome big time

[galgal]

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

Toughest rider of 2017 is Lauren Dolan. Holy crap.

I'll spare the images on the forum, just Google it and know you've been warned. To finish a TT course with injuries like that...wow.

This might have come up before, but might be fun to have year-end PL vote on rider/team of the year in various categories? I'm with Flash on toughest rider of the year.

[echappist]

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

Milan-SanRemo isn't a Northern Classic, and played out pretty much exactly that way, as it does every year. And this year the Tactical Buffalo got outplayed by Kwiatkowski at the line.

my point was that Sagan could free lance for a good 250 km, being almost invisible, before making a move. Such free lancing doesn't work in the Northern Classics

There's a 3k-ish run in from that last hill, so very similar to the finale of SanRemo (I know, the Poggio is 7k from the line, but the profile is similar-ish), with a downhill and then a short flat stretch to the line. Be curious to see how guys play it, again, a lot like SanRemo, after 260k in the legs and a hill that I'm sure is going to hurt.

the profile is anything but similar. The lead-in has about 500 m of elevation gain, and each lap has 250 m of elevation gain/lap. There's a 1.5 km long, 6.5% hill (which is immediately preceded by a mile-long 4% hill) every single lap for 12 laps. If anything, it'd be the most similar to how the Mendrisio, Verona, or Firenze courses played out. 3500 m of total climbing whittles down the peloton. Add to the fact that it may rain, the race would probably come down to a very small group sprint.

[MattTuck]

I am kind of hoping it is someone new. Nothing against Kwiatkowski or Sagan, just would like to see the rainbow stripes on someone new.

What if it were Dumoulin in the road race as well? Is there precedent for someone winning both at the same time in the modern era?

[FlashUNC]

Originally Posted by echappist

my point was that Sagan could free lance for a good 250 km, being almost invisible, before making a move. Such free lancing doesn't work in the Northern Classics



the profile is anything but similar. The lead-in has about 500 m of elevation gain, and each lap has 250 m of elevation gain/lap. There's a 1.5 km long, 6.5% hill (which is immediately preceded by a mile-long 4% hill) every single lap for 12 laps. If anything, it'd be the most similar to how the Mendrisio, Verona, or Firenze courses played out. 3500 m of total climbing whittles down the peloton. Add to the fact that it may rain, the race would probably come down to a very small group sprint.

I was comparing literally within the last 10k of the course. Yes, the overall route is hillier and that will whittle the field down, but my expectation the finale will play out a lot like MSR does some years. A small, select group over the final hill, jockeying it out for what must be an agonizing sprint to the line.

Those last 3-5k aren't twins, but they're definitely kissing cousins. The biggest difference being the longer run-in to the finish on the flat after the final bump.

[echappist]

Originally Posted by MattTuck

I am kind of hoping it is someone new. Nothing against Kwiatkowski or Sagan, just would like to see the rainbow stripes on someone new.

What if it were Dumoulin in the road race as well? Is there precedent for someone winning both at the same time in the modern era?

unprecedented. The ITT championship only started in the early 90's, so not that many to have contested it. Olano and Indurain probably came the closest

[rustychisel]

Sagan, or if he's not strong, that looks like a hill for Michael Matthews. So I'll be parochial and say 'Go the Bling'.

[colbyh]

Originally Posted by MattTuck

What if it were Dumoulin in the road race as well? Is there precedent for someone winning both at the same time in the modern era?

Would be so great to see, he had so much power in the ITT it definitely seems possible.

Uran or Martin would also be great to see. Really I'd just like to see someone new in WC stripes.

[echappist]

Originally Posted by colbyh

Would be so great to see, he had so much power in the ITT it definitely seems possible.

Uran or Martin would also be great to see. Really I'd just like to see someone new in WC stripes.

Uran would be a good bet. he could have gotten on the podium in 2013 had it not bee for sliding out on the descent.

Would love to see Martin wear Rainbow stripes

[ultraman6970]

Martin... Dan martin??? IMO Martin is not a classic rider that's why he is not one of the favs for this race, thats why Belgium and Netherlands are always the favs for world cups, in a matter of fact to me Gilbert has more chances than Martin to podium just because of his characteristics.

Somebody said that Sagan was going to freelance, actually that's what he will do for sure, and the teams gonna have to take him with them because the WC and a classics race are totally different.

IMO it will happens something similar than what happened in Richmond, the last climb will decide the race. Totally see TD dropping everybody uphill and doing the last 10km solo, actually he looks so well that I doubt a bunch of riders together arent going to be enough to catch him at all.

[echappist]

Originally Posted by ultraman6970

Martin... Dan martin??? IMO Martin is not a classic rider that's why he is not one of the favs for this race, thats why Belgium and Netherlands are always the favs for world cups, in a matter of fact to me Gilbert has more chances than Martin to podium just because of his characteristics.

Somebody said that Sagan was going to freelance, actually that's what he will do for sure, and the teams gonna have to take him with them because the WC and a classics race are totally different.

IMO it will happens something similar than what happened in Richmond, the last climb will decide the race. Totally see TD dropping everybody uphill and doing the last 10km solo, actually he looks so well that I doubt a bunch of riders together arent going to be enough to catch him at all.

I don't recall any last Dutchman wearing the rainbow stripes in the past 20 years, if not 30. May have to go all the way back to Jan Raas

[cadence90]

Originally Posted by echappist

unprecedented. The ITT championship only started in the early 90's, so not that many to have contested it. Olano and Indurain probably came the closest

Olano is the only man to have won gold in both: RR 1995; TT 1998.

But I guess that some gifts were exchanged in 1995 since as you say Olano won gold in the RR and Indurain silver, while Indurain won gold in the TT and Olano silver.

Originally Posted by echappist

I don't recall any last Dutchman wearing the rainbow stripes in the past 20 years, if not 30. May have to go all the way back to Jan Raas

Yes, surprisingly a long time. The last Dutchman was Joop Zoetemelk, 1985.
.
.

[ultraman6970]

Yeah but as teams they always go right there with the belgians. Spain has a team that is weak IMO... same france and italy. To me the world champion with come of from ND or Belgium plus Mr Sagan.

[Polyglot]

One thing that nobody has mentioned but that the bookies have noticed is the home country advantage. It does not matter where you race, when racing in home, you will always have an additional spur to exceed yourself, even if in nothing more than a support role. I think this is why the bookies give Boassen Hagen such high odds. The weather in Bergen also favors those who are accustomed to rather harsh weather (Dutch, Belgian, Scandinavians, Sagan...). I have been to Bergen and Norway many times and the weather truly is unique

[GregL]

Originally Posted by cadence90

But I guess that some gifts were exchanged in 1995 since as you say Olano won gold in the RR and Indurain silver, while Indurain won gold in the TT and Olano silver.

Not so much gifts as good team tactics. Olano attacked late in the road race. Indurain sat on Pantani's wheel, forcing Pantani to either sit up or chase and pull Indurain up to his team mate. It was a classic two-on-one, well executed by the Spanish team.

Greg