The fall of Kona Bikes :(

[unterhausen]

It looks to me that the owners did the vulture capitalist thing where they get a big loan to pay the executive's golden parachutes and leave the companies with the debt. Hasn't fully played out yet, but that's pretty standard.

[krooj]

Originally Posted by prototoast

I don't can't possibly imagine what $6-9k modern bike you consider to be "equivalent" to a CAAD 9 with 105. You can get a CAAD Optimo rim brake bike with 11 speed 105 for $1625 MSRP. You can get a CAAD 13 disc brake with 11 speed 105 for $2325 MSRP. You can even get a Supersix Evo with disc brake 11 speed 105 for $3,225.

If you're looking at a Supersix Evo Hi-Mod Disc with 12 speed Ultegra Di2 and carbon wheels (MSRP $8,050) and thinking that's somehow the equivalent of a CAAD 9, then your sense of equivalence is not based on product attributes, engineering costs, or production costs.

Maybe my stated ranges are too high, but my point here was that, in 2006 a CAAD9 with 105 was the sweet spot for what a serious enthusiast would consider to be an acceptable state-of-the-art road bike, and those were not extremely expensive bikes. Today, you'd be looking at an SL8, Aethos, or maybe Allez, which start around $4k. So we're in a situation where these bikes' pricing has far outpaced inflation, everything is made in the far east, so labour costs are significantly reduced - you'd expect greater margins to come out of all that.

We're seeing a correction of sorts - just browse Trek's website - but I don't think we're anywhere near bottom.

All of this is different from the whole Kona situation, which just sounds like scummy VC and even worse management. I always pegged Kona as a roach of the cycling industry - un-killable.

[Mark McM]

Originally Posted by krooj

Maybe my stated ranges are too high, but my point here was that, in 2006 a CAAD9 with 105 was the sweet spot for what a serious enthusiast would consider to be an acceptable state-of-the-art road bike, and those were not extremely expensive bikes. Today, you'd be looking at an SL8, Aethos, or maybe Allez, which start around $4k. So we're in a situation where these bikes' pricing has far outpaced inflation, everything is made in the far east, so labour costs are significantly reduced - you'd expect greater margins to come out of all that.

I'm not sure that your comparison is valid. A CAAD 9 with 105 would not have been considered a "state-of-the-art" bike, even in 2006. It has an aluminum frame and the lowest "enthusiast level" group set, so it would be more likely be considered an entry-level race bike. The closest modern comparison would probably be the Cannondale CAAD 13 Disc 105, which is the direct descendant of the CAAD9. You reported earlier that the CAAD9 with 105 was about $1500 in 2006. According to this inflation calculator, this would be $2334 in today's dollars. This almost exactly the same as the $2325 price tag on the CAAD 13 disc 105.

[vertr]

Originally Posted by Mark McM

This almost exactly the same as the $2325 price tag on the CAAD 13 disc 105.

Right, every time I see someone do the actual math the pricing changes are bang-on for inflation aside from the absolute top of the market.

[prototoast]

Originally Posted by vertr

Right, every time I see someone do the actual math the pricing changes are bang-on for inflation aside from the absolute top of the market.

Yup. Aside from a few covid blips, the real cost of bikes has been stable or coming down.

The issue is that there has been a lot of advancement at the top so people who want to ride the same bikes the pros are riding have to pay a lot more. This can create social pressures where people buying bikes based on some perceived status feel they have to spend more money to maintain the same perceived status level of their bike.

This is a real phenomenon, particularly in a competitive environment like racing, but it's a very different phenomenon than "inflation."

[.RJ]

Originally Posted by prototoast

Yup. Aside from a few covid blips, the real cost of bikes has been stable or coming down.

While getting a much better machine, at the same time.

CAAD 9 was great, but, the new bike will have more tire clearance, probably ride nicer, disc brakes, 11/12-speed and better gear ranges, and so on.

[litcrazy]

I do think folks want to present inflation as the same item for the same price.

No one is asking what the price of an iPhone 10 is right now. They compare the newest iPhone in 2024 to the newest iPhone in 2014. They don’t say inflation doesn’t apply because it has a bigger screen, faster processor and additional cameras. Likewise when considering the cost of automobiles, I don’t see the same consideration of trying to adjust inflation consideration to subtract technological advances.

This apples to apples comparison strategy seems to lose track of why road cycling is perceived as less and less accessible. I think that comparing an aluminum bike from 2006 to a carbon bike in 2024 isn’t particularly unreasonable when you look at market share.

I fear this kind of thinking will create blindspots in the industry that will just make road cycling more and more out of touch from most people in the same way skiing has gone. With the continuing trickle done effect that more and more people will view bikes on roads as at best a nuisance and at worst trespassers.

[mstateglfr]

Originally Posted by litcrazy

I do think folks want to present inflation as the same item for the same price.

No one is asking what the price of an iPhone 10 is right now. They compare the newest iPhone in 2024 to the newest iPhone in 2014. They don’t say inflation doesn’t apply because it has a bigger screen, faster processor and additional cameras. Likewise when considering the cost of automobiles, I don’t see the same consideration of trying to adjust inflation consideration to subtract technological advances.

This apples to apples comparison strategy seems to lose track of why road cycling is perceived as less and less accessible. I think that comparing an aluminum bike from 2006 to a carbon bike in 2024 isn’t particularly unreasonable when you look at market share.

I fear this kind of thinking will create blindspots in the industry that will just make road cycling more and more out of touch from most people in the same way skiing has gone. With the continuing trickle done effect that more and more people will view bikes on roads as at best a nuisance and at worst trespassers.

I partly see the point you are making and partly don't understand it at all.
Your comment about not being able to compare apples to aolles because the tech is fundamentally different is a good one, and I referenced that in a post I just made about 105 now compared to 105 bike from 5 years ago.

I don't understand why you conclude this creates blinds spots in the industry though. I think the industry is very aware of the consequences of advancing tech and addresses those consequences in varying ways.
- SRAM for the road has clearly said 'we don't care' about offering less expensive options.
- Shimano for the road has clearly said 'we partly don't care, but we also partly do care, oh and here is some sort of universal plug-n-play tech that we think will work for the less expensive end of the market'.
- Campy has clearly said 'ci preoccupiamo solo dei vecchi ricchi'.
- And brands like Microshift, ltwoo, and Sensah have clearly said 'we will fill the void and maybe convince users to them upgrade to our more advanced tech later on'.


I really don't think this is a blind spot to the industry.
You can still buy a major brand road bike for under $1k, not discounted- Trek domane al2. One of my kids has had one of those for 4 years now and even trained for and rode an ironman on it.
Road cycling can be very accessible still.

[litcrazy]

I agree that there are deals out there and one can break into the sport on a budget. I do it by riding last decade's technology. But I think there's a lot of momentum against it.

I hear reports of a real like of enthusiasm from shops when friends go looking for those bikes when they feel they've outgrown their hybrid or want to ride more once their kids are older and less dependent on them.

Likewise, my college aged son reports quite a bit of snobbery towards lower tier bikes and/or disbelief about the functionality of those bikes provided the right (human) motor among his riding peers.

I know I'll be told cassettes and chains are so much better now, but I can't get my brain around the cost a new twelve speed chain and cassette. And prices have started to come down.

I just broke into 10 speed with my friction shifters, so I know it can be down, but the I fear the increased cost of the cool bikes in the magazine gear reviews and in the shops is awfully off-putting and isn't helping grow the sport.

[yinzerniner]

Originally Posted by litcrazy

I agree that there are deals out there and one can break into the sport on a budget. I do it by riding last decade's technology. But I think there's a lot of momentum against it.

I hear reports of a real like of enthusiasm from shops when friends go looking for those bikes when they feel they've outgrown their hybrid or want to ride more once their kids are older and less dependent on them.

Likewise, my college aged son reports quite a bit of snobbery towards lower tier bikes and/or disbelief about the functionality of those bikes provided the right (human) motor among his riding peers.

I know I'll be told cassettes and chains are so much better now, but I can't get my brain around the cost a new twelve speed chain and cassette. And prices have started to come down.

I just broke into 10 speed with my friction shifters, so I know it can be down, but the I fear the increased cost of the cool bikes in the magazine gear reviews and in the shops is awfully off-putting and isn't helping grow the sport.

You’re describing psychological barriers and peer pressure. That kind of has nothing to do with bike performance and component choices per purchasing dollar.

But agree that attitude and “vibes” are more prevalent than 5-10 years ago. They were always present, just not as easily expressed, identified or shared. Ain’t social media the best!

As for cost of 12+ speed consumables a lot of that has to do with manufacturing tolerances, but again a lot of the 12s stuff came into being around same time of inflation. As the bike parts market is coming back into equilibrium you’re finding pretty wide availability for $35 chains and $60 cassettes, which seem about in line with what prices were for good 11 and 10s parts

[.RJ]

Originally Posted by mstateglfr

I don't understand why you conclude this creates blinds spots in the industry though. I think the industry is very aware of the consequences of advancing tech and addresses those consequences in varying ways.
- SRAM for the road has clearly said 'we don't care' about offering less expensive options.
- Shimano for the road has clearly said 'we partly don't care, but we also partly do care, oh and here is some sort of universal plug-n-play tech that we think will work for the less expensive end of the market'. .

Sram still has Rival and Apex, Shimano has 105 mechanical, plus robot shifted versions of both.

[yinzerniner]

Originally Posted by .RJ

Sram still has Rival and Apex, Shimano has 105 mechanical, plus robot shifted versions of both.

Also 11s 105 was roughly $800 USD when introduced in 2015, which is about $1050 now. Ultegra 11s was about $1250 when introd in 2014, about $1650 now. Ultegra grx 12s mechanical is $1167. So pricing for shimano stuff has roughly stayed the same of not gone down for mechanical since they are more invested in electric.

People gonna believe what they want to believe.

[mstateglfr]

Originally Posted by .RJ

Sram still has Rival and Apex, Shimano has 105 mechanical, plus robot shifted versions of both.

SRAM Apex is, ironically, their lowest level. It's a 12sp electronic or 11sp mechanical.
When that is their entry level, I think my comment holds true- SRAM has clearly said they don't care about offering less expensive options.

[charliedid]

Originally Posted by mstateglfr

SRAM Apex is, ironically, their lowest level. It's a 12sp electronic or 11sp mechanical.
When that is their entry level, I think my comment holds true- SRAM has clearly said they don't care about offering less expensive options.

12 speed mechanical also a thing.

[yinzerniner]

Originally Posted by mstateglfr

SRAM Apex is, ironically, their lowest level. It's a 12sp electronic or 11sp mechanical.
When that is their entry level, I think my comment holds true- SRAM has clearly said they don't care about offering less expensive options.

What is “less expensive” mean to you? Is it a $700 current price groupset? $1000? $500?

As mentioned sram has a 1x 12s groupset that’s available for ~950. That’s less than 105 (which is apparently your baseline ) was when adjusting for inflation. And there are 2x12s shimano offerings for ~1200, and 2x12 sram electronic for ~1300. And are you only considering “road” groupsets even though the biggest growth sector is gravel/allroad?

There are clearly still bikes with analogous groupsets at certain price points when compare to past offerings, but they’re no longer solely in the “road” or “road racing” category, they’ve migrated to the gravel to allroad sector. I know it’s a tired analogy, but it’s kind of like saying there are no more affordable sports coupes available for purchase while ignoring the fact that consumer preferences have changed.

And just to further prove the point, how many professional road races are there in the US this year? And how many professional gravel races?