Fed raises interest rates...

[Bruce K]

BINGO!!!

Now stop it!

BK

[johnniecakes]

Hopefully soon it make sense again to save money. We have an entire generation who have no concept of planning and saving. Who remembers 4-5% on passbook saving and 11% mortgages with 20% down? When financial planning was really consideration and you had to deny yourself instant gratification.

Sorry, just a grumpy old man rant.

[93legendti]

Originally Posted by johnniecakes

Hopefully soon it make sense again to save money. We have an entire generation who have no concept of planning and saving. Who remembers 4-5% on passbook saving and 11% mortgages with 20% down? When financial planning was really consideration and you had to deny yourself instant gratification.

Sorry, just a grumpy old man rant.

Yup, money market at 5%...

Heck, I remember 9% cd rates on 30 day notes in Canada...1990 or so iirc.

[joosttx]

Originally Posted by flydhest

I am curious why you say that, given that historically, that hasn't been the case.

For the budget, for example, the deficit went from 9.8 percent of GDP down to 2.4 percent of GDP over the period when the Fed was keeping interest rates at zero.

The times when the deficit has risen, interest rates have been higher (if only because they have essentially always been higher than now).

It took me two times to read you wrote. I think my message is easier to understand. That's my point. You are a smart guy with access to your info. Not everyone is

[zap]

Originally Posted by johnniecakes

Hopefully soon it make sense again to save money. We have an entire generation who have no concept of planning and saving. Who remembers 4-5% on passbook saving and 11% mortgages with 20% down? When financial planning was really consideration and you had to deny yourself instant gratification.

Sorry, just a grumpy old man rant.

I would say generations....

I used to earn 12% +- point (early 80's) on the portion of my allowance that I put in my Bank of Montreal savings account. Now I have to be happy with 6% returns

[Tandem Rider]

I remember 18% construction loans and Farm Aid concerts. Be very careful what you ask for, you might get it.

[rounder]

I am old.

Worked at the Federal Reserve (Baltimore Branch) in the discount window department during the 1970s when rates were high. I do not remember how high the Fed Funds rate was then, but the prime rate was 22+% during the Jimmy Carter years. The rates were so high that many credit card departments of banks moved to Delaware to avoid the usury interest rate ceilings.

By today's standards, rates are really low, But any rate increase today is a big increase.

[verticaldoug]

The FED usually hikes until something breaks. We will see if this time if different.

Bob Shiller released his paper on how the narrative (story telling) drives a lot of market activity. The problem is the narrative usually starts out with assumptions that are more or less correct, but over time as the economy moves, the narrative doesn't change. (Late comers are intellectually lazy)

Eventually, the market realizes the narrative is wrong (usually too late in the cycle) and there is hell to pay. (See the original housing assumption about never having a national recession in housing for details)

Since we came into the QE new-normal from the housing break, and it is part of this narrative, it is hard to see how we exit without some new 'break'. Do you remember CITI's CEO Chuck Prince quote from the FT in 2007?

“When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance."

http://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default.../d20/d2069.pdf
Link to Shiller's paper at Yale.

[soulspinner]

Originally Posted by tandem rider

i remember 18% construction loans and farm aid concerts. Be very careful what you ask for, you might get it.

+1

[flydhest]

Originally Posted by joosttx

It took me two times to read you wrote. I think my message is easier to understand. That's my point. You are a smart guy with access to your info. Not everyone is

I must have missed your point, then. I thought you were suggesting that higher interest rates will lead to fiscal discipline, or at least increase the impulse toward fiscal discipline. I was just wondering why you would say that, given that such a relationship is at odds with history.

I am always looking to learn.

Totally agree that I am not a random draw from the population when it comes to understanding the relationships among interest rates, the economy, monetary policy, and debt issuance. I think in part because of that I ask simple questions but don't like to get into debates on the webbernet.

On a different note, for those waxing nostalgic for higher interest rates, don't forget to adjust for inflation/inflation expectations. It is true that even on an inflation-adjusted basis, rates are low these days, but not the lowest ever. There was a lot to loathe about the days when passbook savings earned 12 percent in nominal terms.