Milan-San Remo

yarg · #1 03-14-2017, 11:05 AM

Sitting around today trapped by the snow storm spending to much time on the computer looking forward to the next big race. Saw that the two heavy favorites are Peter Sagan and Fernando Gaviria. Sagan is no surprise, but looking at Gaviria's age and history can't figure the odds. I know he can sprint but there has to be more, educate me.

MattTuck · #2 03-14-2017, 11:25 AM

I haven't looked at the start list in detail yet, but Quick-Step has not had the best luck with MSR. You could view that as them either being due for a big win (reversion to the mean), or just not being very good at this race (just a lower base rate).

He won a stage in Tirreno-Adriatico, so its hard to say he's not a favorite.

nooneline · #3 03-14-2017, 11:38 AM

Gaviria got over the Poggio in the lead group at last year's MSR - he just stupidly crashed himself out in the last kilometer. He seems to be very capable of winning if he makes it to the end with the bunch - sometimes dominantly so (take a look at what he did at Paris-Tours last year). He's extremely capable.

I think yesterday's stage of TA is about as good a preview of MSR as one can get in the pre-season.

FlashUNC · #4 03-14-2017, 12:35 PM

He was gonna win last year if not for bodging it in the last 300m. Gaviria can totally win MSR.

MattTuck · #5 03-14-2017, 02:03 PM

Gaviria, while capable, is still very young (as far as MSR winners go). Yes, he looked strong last year, but he is only 22 years old, and the last 300m of a 290km race are where the difference is made in Milano Sanremo. In other words, a lot of people get to 300m looking like they could win. That is where the race for victory actually begins.

Winning a 168km stage after your teammate tired out Sagan with a feigned attack is a good tactical win, but doesn't exactly presage victory on the Via Roma.

Just a cursory look at the results, and Gaviria was way down in the two other stages that Sagan won. Not sure if he was sand bagging at the end of those stages, had a mechanical, etc. I just don't know. I wouldn't bet on him for Sunday, but that is just me.

FlashUNC · #6 03-14-2017, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MattTuck

Gaviria, while capable, is still very young (as far as MSR winners go). Yes, he looked strong last year, but he is only 22 years old, and the last 300m of a 290km race are where the difference is made in Milano Sanremo. In other words, a lot of people get to 300m looking like they could win. That is where the race for victory actually begins.

Winning a 168km stage after your teammate tired out Sagan with a feigned attack is a good tactical win, but doesn't exactly presage victory on the Via Roma.

Just a cursory look at the results, and Gaviria was way down in the two other stages that Sagan won. Not sure if he was sand bagging at the end of those stages, had a mechanical, etc. I just don't know. I wouldn't bet on him for Sunday, but that is just me.

Well yeah, but the 300m was because he touched wheels. It wasn't anything due to youth or inability. He was the strongest of the group running into that final sprint. And yes, luck always plays a part, but there was no better pure sprinter in that final last year than him.

MSR is always weird and unpredictable, but if he's in the lead group in that last 1.5k, I doubt anyone wants a sprint at the line.

nooneline · #7 03-14-2017, 02:44 PM

Good thoughts, Matt. You’re right that MSR is a different beast altogether and difficult to predict - for that reason I think there are some surprise victors among the list of recent winners. Nothing’s a sure thing, but a lot of the signs are there: Gaviria has shown he can get over the Poggio with the lead group, he’s shown that he can go head to head with Sagan in a field sprint, he’s shown that he’s in good form lately. That’s enough to put him on the list for MSR. Will he win it? Or would he have won it last year if he didn’t touch wheels? Maybe. We’ll never know the latter, and we’ll find out the former on Saturday. Of course, it’s road racing - a flat tire at a bad time or somebody else’s inattentive crash could ruin his day and answer the question for us.

I’m also interested in who else is on the list for MSR. Demare is having a good spring but I wouldn’t bet on a repeat MSR victory. Sonny Colbrelli could be up there at the end. GVA and Kwiatko both race the hell out of every race they’re in. Kristoff is always dangerous, Trek is bringing a strong team with Degenkolb, Felline, and Stuyven… man just thinking about it is making me excited!

yarg · #8 03-14-2017, 03:03 PM

Just one of the odds makers lists out there, pretty much all have Sagan, Gaviria top two. Don't mean a thing, except its interesting to see who the money likes.

Peter Sagan 4/1
Fernando Gaviria 5/1
Arnaud Demare 11/1
John Degenkolb 11/1
Alexander Kristoff 11/1
Mark Cavendish 14/1
Nacer Bouhanni 16/1
Michael Matthews 18/1
Sonny Colbrelli 18/1
Caleb Ewan 22/1
Greg Van Avermaet 25/1
Fabio Felline 28/1
Elia Viviani 28/1
Julian Alaphilippe 28/1
Michal Kwiatkowski 28/1
Ben Swift 33/1

Macadamia · #9 03-14-2017, 07:59 PM

I'd like to see someone go "long" at least holding out over the Poggio. Last year was super chill most of the way up.

Also hope everyone stays upright, Gaviria nearly took out both Sagan and Cancellara last year, want to see everyone race the rest of the classics.

Elefantino · #10 03-14-2017, 09:50 PM

It's "Sanremo"

There is no St. Remo.

nooneline · #11 03-15-2017, 05:52 AM

It's styled as both San Remo and Sanremo. There may be no St Remo, but there's a St Remus, Romulus of Genoa (or Romolo in Italian), from which the town's name is derived.

MattTuck · #12 03-16-2017, 07:55 PM

Ok, I'm not going to the top 3, because they are so favored; so no Sagan, Degenkolb or Gaviria. I just don't think it is fun to choose them, even though it'll probably be one of them -- or Demare or Kristoff.

I will be cheering for Degenkolb, as he's been on a long come back after a driver took out his team last year. I hope he returns to his top form.

In terms of a podium, here we go:
1. Dumoulin
2. Kwiatkowski

3. Colbrelli (winning bunch sprint)

"Stealth fighter pick": Magnus Cort Nielsen