Stock Market Watch, President-Elect Trump

[Tony T]

The old saying is "As goes the 1st week of Jan, so goes the month, and as goes Jan, so goes the year"

Keep an eye on China Sunday night. They turned off the "circuit breakers" after the 7％ drop in 30 min on Thur, so there is no limit on the drop (or rise)

(BTW if the DOW dropped 7%, that would be 1,100 points)

[notsew]

Originally Posted by gomango

Correct.

When to buy is the only question.

I've been thinking that maybe there is a Paceline Indicator. Every time there is a downturn, this post happens. Maybe this is the sign that it is time to buy!

[seanile]

to buy bike stuffs or cheap stock...

[Tony T]

Originally Posted by MattTuck

wages up. part time jobs up. also, any sign of economy being "good" means that rates are going up (they're not by the way), and that means asset values are going down. This is the flip side of driving interest rates to near zero to juice the stock market.

So, you think the Fed will step-in and say that ' about that 1% rate increase in 2016 "never mind" '

"Don't fight the Fed", last meeting was not a "one and done" rate increase. When the Fed starts to raise rates, they continue to raise rates. Look for 4 more increases in 2016 (which will still only get us just above 1％)

Good news is that gas is now below $2

[scho74]

Originally Posted by seanile

to buy bike stuffs or cheap stock...

Buy GOOD cheap stock then buy bike stuffs with the profit!

[laupsi]

Originally Posted by Tony T

Good news is that gas is now below $2

Many don't think this is good news

[Tony T]

Yeah, those who are long WTI and energy stocks, but I'm long a Jeep Wrangler
http://www.fuelgaugereport.com

[zap]

Originally Posted by SoCalSteve

Seriously? Jobs report just came out and it's the lowest unemployment in many years. That my friend, is no recession!

The money you should move around is buying more. Not selling.

Participation rate is still not very good.

Interesting times.

[PSC]

I agree, good buying opportunity, past couple of days have been throwing a few thousand dollars into the S&P(I like indexes). I like to remind my friends you only lose if you sell, hang in there the market will come back. IMO the US is the strongest market in the world and has been for sometime.

[oldpotatoe]

Originally Posted by laupsi

Many don't think this is good news

Can't be anything but for the consumer. Like getting a pay raise. Which equals more spending elsewhere, which is good for economy-yes? Not an ekonomist, BTW-can't even spell it.

[laupsi]

Originally Posted by oldpotatoe

Can't be anything but for the consumer. Like getting a pay raise. Which equals more spending elsewhere, which is good for economy-yes? Not an ekonomist, BTW-can't even spell it.

as it turns out Americans have begun saving again. for the most part any cost margin left over from lower gas prices are being plowed into bank accounts. this is a good thing, but compared to stagnant wages, limited longer term reinvestment potential from alternative energy sources and keeping folks dependent upon big oil, the savings gain do not amount to much in the long run.

the old adage stands when economic parameters do not bode well for the long term; you can pay now or you can pay later. paying later is always more costly.

[1centaur]

Super warm winter, super surprising jobs number. Manufacturing is suffering; retail is spotty. Oil prices will stay low for most of this year at least (excepting Middle East war) so Texas growth will be poor. Fed rate increases will work into the valuation thoughts of some dividend discount models and a strong dollar which will continue to hurt emerging markets. China will continue to devalue, making dollar-denominated commodities even more expensive for their manufacturing sector.

The stock market has long been trading at cash flow multiples that are too high for the companies' prospective growth. 20% out of the market will only get many companies back to something fair. Neither the US nor Europe has leaders that are willing to (or maybe even know how to) prioritize growth over (other) social goals, and no prospects of such. Demographics are getting worse (too many old people). Earnings are disappointing left and right.

It does not have to be a recession to make the stock market a bad place to be for a while. Upside surprises are FAR harder to imagine than the opposite right now.

In a 2% growth world, a 5% return is an excellent thing, especially if you don't have any -20% or -40% names in your portfolio.

[Look585]

Originally Posted by zap

Participation rate is still not very good.

<rant>

"Labor Force Participation Rate" gets tossed around way too often (usually with political overtones) and very few people even know how it is calculated. Lower is not necessarily bad, higher not necessarily good.

Two examples:

1) If old people are living longer in retirement, labor force participation rate goes down (ceteris paribus) as retirees (not in an assisted living facility) count as part of the labor force but aren't participating. Is that a good or bad thing?

2) If more young people are in school, labor force participation rate goes down (again, ceteris paribus) as students (16 and over) count as part of the labor force but aren't participating. Is that a good or bad thing?

Lies, damn lies, statistics...

</rant>

[saab2000]

People who think markets will go up 10% per year every year are delusional.

My plan is to keep on keeping on. Dips are natural and good times to buy.

[93legendti]

Hard to imagine people believing that more expensive gas prices are good for the economy ( that's the "we need $8/gallon gas" people who want us to be like Europe ) -how does everything you buy get to the store, glider plane? More expensive to make and to deliver equals more expensive to buy. More money spent on fuel means less money to spend on other things.

When gas prices were higher I couldn't get a free estimate for work on my houses- everyone wanted trip charges ("I can't drive around all day giving for estimates!") and/or estimate charges. And people refused to go certain houses of mine: " that's too far on $4/gallon gas", or " I won't go for just one tiny repair, it's not worth my time and expense" I heard too many times.


Now, with gas at 2008 prices, I don't have that anymore. Ymmv.

"Lower gas prices are good for the economy," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics."

http://www.latimes.com/topic/busines...209-topic.html