Stock Market Watch, President-Elect Trump

[93legendti]

Originally Posted by cnighbor1

MY investment advisor
http://www.merriman.com/
Dear Charlie and Carolyn,

Yesterday, citizens of the United Kingdom unexpectedly voted to leave the European Union in a historic referendum. The U.K. bookies had it dead wrong, giving the “Leave” vote only 3/1 odds of succeeding when official polling began. Stock traders around the world, who also sided with the bookies, were obviously caught flat-footed by the unexpected success of the “Leave” vote, which has led to large declines in the stock markets today.

Naturally, all branches of the media will leap opportunistically to cover this Brexit story and will likely lean toward scary and provocative stories to maximize viewership. That is their formula. Unfortunately, these stories will stir up investor angst as the doomsayers are afforded maximum airtime.

Plunging stock markets also don’t help in the angst department, so it’s important to remember that we are long-term investors at Merriman. While we don’t know how this event will unfold over the short-term, we do know the upcoming market gyrations will ultimately be just a small bump in the long journey of achieving our financial goals.

We don’t see Brexit as a major long-term turning point in the markets. Companies around the world are incredibly efficient at adapting to the new bureaucratic rules in the game, and growing profits over time. This view definitely includes companies domiciled in Europe. Following common sense is the best course of action – take market volatility in stride, stay diversified among stocks, bonds and specialty asset classes, periodically rebalance, and be thankful for all the wonderful moments each day provides.

Sincerely,
The Merriman Investment Team

"Unexpectedly". Sheryl Atkinson recently covered this phenomenon. Like every month's jobs report - "disappointing". A whole generation of young Israelis went to the polls last year believing change was coming, because that's what Haaretz told them would happen.
If reporters actually reported facts not their feelings...

[Neil]

[Neil]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-finance-crown

[Miller76]

Nice bounce back in the last two days!!


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[saab2000]

Originally Posted by Miller76

Nice bounce back in the last two days!!


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Keep on keeping on.

Most people say the long term implications are negligible. It was probably a good buying opportunity on Friday though.

[Louis]

Originally Posted by saab2000

Most people say the long term implications are negligible. It was probably a good buying opportunity on Friday though.

Now you tell me.

[saab2000]

Originally Posted by Louis

Now you tell me.

Buy low. Sell high.

Not my advice. This belongs to someone else.

[Tony T]

Buy high, sell higher.

[Jeff N.]

With todays horrible terrorist attacks in Turkey, I expect another nose-dive.

[adub]

Originally Posted by Jeff N.

With todays horrible terrorist attacks in Turkey, I expect another nose-dive.

Futures are up and crude is up. Sadly as these incidents have become commonplace they are barely white noise to the markets.

[Jeff N.]

Yes. Sad indeed. Looks like it's just being shrugged off.

[verticaldoug]

Originally Posted by adub

Futures are up and crude is up. Sadly as these incidents have become commonplace they are barely white noise to the markets.

The question is why do you think it should cause a sell-off in developed markets? Terrorist attacks are to some degree priced in.

If you look at TAVHL in Turkey (TAV Havalimanlari Holdings) which is the airport operator in the region, the stock has already sold off from 25 to 13 since 4Q2015 when terrorist activities with PKK started to escalate. International and local markets have been leaving Turkey's tourism sectors for 6 mo already. Instead of PKK, this one appears to be ISIS.

You can see with the influx of refugees into Turkey and then into Europe, why the British are uneasy with open borders.

Another way to look at Thursday Vote is a partial reflection of fear of acts of violence like this.

[Miller76]

Originally Posted by verticaldoug

The question is why do you think it should cause a sell-off in developed markets? Terrorist attacks are to some degree priced in.



If you look at TAVHL in Turkey (TAV Havalimanlari Holdings) which is the airport operator in the region, the stock has already sold off from 25 to 13 since 4Q2015 when terrorist activities with PKK started to escalate. International and local markets have been leaving Turkey's tourism sectors for 6 mo already. Instead of PKK, this one appears to be ISIS.



You can see with the influx of refugees into Turkey and then into Europe, why the British are uneasy with open borders.



Another way to look at Thursday Vote is a partial reflection of fear of acts of violence like this.

Just look at Turkish Government bonds - the 10yr branch mark has rallied around 140bps YTD.... In price terms that's 10%


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[oldpotatoe]

Originally Posted by Miller76

Nice bounce back in the last two days!!


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17,585 right now, 8:50 MTN time, Wednesday.

[54ny77]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Oeb8nhNJOU

Originally Posted by Miller76

Just look at Turkish Government bonds - the 10yr branch mark has rallied around 140bps YTD.... In price terms that's 10%


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