OT Key Bridge collapse - seems surreal

[unterhausen]

The Kuznetsov is in dry dock nowadays. Maybe we can rent the escort tugs that go everywhere with it to escort ships in and out of Baltimore harbor.

On a related note, it amuses me that a dry dock can sink.

[bigbill]

Originally Posted by benb

I thought there was something about them not burning the bunker fuel in near port cause the pollution is too excessive and too dangerous in a populated area.

They don't, but the bunker fuel consumed before entering the port can clog fuel filters if not maintained. I was on one Navy ship that burned bunker fuel and we primarily fueled in Augusta Bay, Sicily. We had boilers, so the fuel didn't have to be that clean, you just have to clean the fireboxes more often. The emergency diesel generator had its own fuel tanks.

[bigbill]

Originally Posted by unterhausen

The Kuznetsov is in dry dock nowadays. Maybe we can rent the escort tugs that go everywhere with it to escort ships in and out of Baltimore harbor.

On a related note, it amuses me that a dry dock can sink.

Floating drydocks have to sink; when the sinking versus surfacing doesn't equal an even number, you have problems. When it worked, the Kuznetsov could be spotted over the horizon from a hundred miles away because of the heavy black smoke. One of China's carriers is a sister ship of the Kuznetsov, but the Chinese have figured out how to operate it without much smoke.

For the tugs, most ports, and I'm sure Baltimore is no exception, have ocean-going tugs, which are about 3X bigger than normal tugs with lots of horsepower. But even if the Dali had tugs traveling with it, I doubt it would have changed the outcome. If you look at the video, there would be no time to get in position to change the ship's direction. If a tug pushed the bow away from the bridge, the Dali still had momentum and would likely strike the bridge broadside, resulting in a much worse outcome because the hull would be breached. In that short distance, tugboats could not have stopped the ship.

[rallizes]

Originally Posted by Mr. Pink

I still haven't heard. Were those containers full or empty?

Our transportation secretary made an appearance, (where has he been?) and made a ridiculous statement, that the bridge was a "cathedral of American infrastructure". A billion Chinese spit their tea out upon hearing that. If anything, just proves how our infrastructure is so bad and unsuited to the modern world that this could happen. Look at the picture of that monster ship. They are all over the world now, but didn't really exist forty to fifty years ago. That bridge was built in 1977, before anybody even considered the state of containerized shipping as it exists today. It's a technology that's changed the world, but, unfortunately, most of the world needs serious ports to accommodate them. That was an accident just waiting to happen, but I guess the only good thing to come out of this is a new, giant cargo ship resistant bridge. Or, move that port to the other side of that bridge. Maybe we should hire the Chinese to sort all of that out. They're pretty good at that.

US infrastructure likely takes a back seat to things mentioned in this thread like OIF and OEF. Make of that what you will.

[bigbill]

Originally Posted by rallizes

US infrastructure likely takes a back seat to things mentioned in this thread like OIF and OEF. Make of that what you will.

I don't get your point about OIF and OEF. I used those examples of the maneuverability of large ships and their ability to turn at slow speed. It sounds like more an agenda based on one post a few pages ago. Make of that what you will. The bridge collapsed because a large ship hit it, not because we aren't investing in infrastructure.

[superbowlpats]

BigBill,

First thank you for your service.

Secondly, thank you for trying to interject facts into the conversation. Much appreciated.

[GregL]

Originally Posted by superbowlpats

BigBill,

First thank you for your service.

Secondly, thank you for trying to interject facts into the conversation. Much appreciated.

+1. Bigbill is a subject matter expert providing objective, factual information. We're fortunate to have him participate here.

Greg

[zmudshark]

Originally Posted by bigbill

I don't get your point about OIF and OEF. I used those examples of the maneuverability of large ships and their ability to turn at slow speed. It sounds like more an agenda based on one post a few pages ago. Make of that what you will. The bridge collapsed because a large ship hit it, not because we aren't investing in infrastructure.

For how big ships move, bigbill is the best source. He is also the best source for a plethora of other topics. He's one of the smartest (and funniest, most engaging) people I've had the pleasure of calling a friend.

Anyone else here ever piloted an aircraft carrier or a nuclear submarine?

Hope to see you again someday, Bill!

[rallizes]

Originally Posted by bigbill

I don't get your point about OIF and OEF. I used those examples of the maneuverability of large ships and their ability to turn at slow speed. It sounds like more an agenda based on one post a few pages ago. Make of that what you will. The bridge collapsed because a large ship hit it, not because we aren't investing in infrastructure.

My point is when people bemoan the state of US infrastructure it might make sense to consider why things are the way they are.

Not sure why that should be controversial.

[Mr. Pink]

Originally Posted by rallizes

US infrastructure likely takes a back seat to things mentioned in this thread like OIF and OEF. Make of that what you will.

Hey, whatever, I'm not even sure what You're getting at, but, to say that this isn't a clear sign that our infrastructure is in a bad way, well, keep on chewing on that one until the next bridge falls down, and China becomes the world's economic and maybe military leader in due time. And I really doubt this so called infrastructure bill that is handing out a ridiculous sum to friends and family will cure our problems much at all. I watched a press conference yesterday with the responders and authorities telling the public about two more deaths and what actions were going to be taken next, but then it devolved into an awful near campaign event at the podium by the powers that be, and nobody had a clue how long it would take to even start clearing that shipping lane. We have no adults in the room, and China has the largest network of high speed trains in the world.
This is what happens when every smart kid wants to make it rich in finance.

[verticaldoug]

Originally Posted by Mr. Pink

Hey, whatever, I'm not even sure what You're getting at, but, to say that this isn't a clear sign that our infrastructure is in a bad way, well, keep on chewing on that one until the next bridge falls down, and China becomes the world's economic and maybe military leader in due time. And I really doubt this so called infrastructure bill that is handing out a ridiculous sum to friends and family will cure our problems much at all. I watched a press conference yesterday with the responders and authorities telling the public about two more deaths and what actions were going to be taken next, but then it devolved into an awful near campaign event at the podium by the powers that be, and nobody had a clue how long it would take to even start clearing that shipping lane. We have no adults in the room, and China has the largest network of high speed trains in the world.
This is what happens when every smart kid wants to make it rich in finance.

Actually, every criticism of American Policy rings true for China as well. Although the High-speed rail network is an impressive engineering feat, it is classic mal-investment by a central gov. 10 of the 15 lines operate at a loss. China Rail Corporation, the operator ,holds the equivalent of 5% of China's debt. The company and country continue to press ahead with expanding thinking it will grow itself out of a hole. *hint: it can't. Each additional mile of track is less profitable than the last mile.

China appears rich because it has spent a massive amount of borrowed money. You eventually have to repay. The issue is a huge chunk of this money was poorly spent. You have the massive hidden debt problems in real estate of whole cities which are empty, you have the massive belt&road expenditures where China lent money to every developing nation on the planet filled with graft and questionable goals, see Zambia, Sri Lanka, Ghana and others as countries defaulting and renegotiating the bonds. In the past, China just wanted to reprofile the bonds which is extend and pretend. But now the debtor nations are demanding and receiving debt forgiveness. China is weak here. Demographics and a large debt hangover really work against it short-medium-and-long term.

Don't get me wrong, America has many of the same debt problems. But at least we can talk about it and not go to jail. See Hong Kong's new security law for details. You should check out TSMC's capital diversification plans as they build new fabs in Japan, US and others. I suspect China takes Taiwan this decade. (It will be interesting to see how 10mm Taiwanese Refugess turbo charge Japans economy) America may be a dirty shirt, but we are still the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry.

[Mr. Pink]

Dude, America is over 31 trillion in debt and personal debt is about 18 trillion. Our bridges fall down, our cities are rotting, our planes fall out of the sky. And all I heard from the powers that be is a bar fight on how much to spend on two conflicts thousands of miles away that have nothing to do with us. All I can say is, glad I'm not graduating high school into this.

[verticaldoug]

Originally Posted by Mr. Pink

Dude, America is over 31 trillion in debt and personal debt is about 18 trillion. Our bridges fall down, our cities are rotting, our planes fall out of the sky. And all I heard from the powers that be is a bar fight on how much to spend on two conflicts thousands of miles away that have nothing to do with us. All I can say is, glad I'm not graduating high school into this.

I guess it is just a different world view. Yes, our debt numbers are big, but our economy is big. Gov Debt to GDP is about 124%. Big but manageable. Japan's is twice that and no one really wringing their hands about Japan.

Do we have problems, sure, but we always have problems. Nothing seems insurmountable on our horizon. I can't think of a better time to be alive.

I envy my children. As long as they are smart and industrious, they will have opportunities, I never had. If my children aren't smart or industrious, that's on them. I'll never understand the pessimistic outlook.

The world is so much better now than when I was born into it. I believe it will be the same for my children.

[reuben]

Originally Posted by verticaldoug

China appears rich because it has spent a massive amount of borrowed money. You eventually have to repay. The issue is a huge chunk of this money was poorly spent. You have the massive hidden debt problems in real estate of whole cities which are empty, you have the massive belt&road expenditures where China lent money to every developing nation on the planet filled with graft and questionable goals, see Zambia, Sri Lanka, Ghana and others as countries defaulting and renegotiating the bonds. In the past, China just wanted to reprofile the bonds which is extend and pretend. But now the debtor nations are demanding and receiving debt forgiveness. China is weak here. Demographics and a large debt hangover really work against it short-medium-and-long term.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought that at least some of the B&R loans allowed China to seize assets such as port or other infrastructure in the event of a default, or at least get a controlling interest. I think (can't recall for certain) that some east African nations might have made such deals in the hopes of growing their economies and local development.

[weisan]

Originally Posted by verticaldoug

Do we have problems, sure, but we always have problems. Nothing seems insurmountable on our horizon. I can't think of a better time to be alive.

I envy my children. As long as they are smart and industrious, they will have opportunities, I never had. If my children aren't smart or industrious, that's on them. I'll never understand the pessimistic outlook.

The world is so much better now than when I was born into it. I believe it will be the same for my children.

Doug pal, I appreciate your perspectives.