Possible move to Raleigh/Cary, NC

[rugbysecondrow]

Originally Posted by 1centaur

Living in Mass, and having lived in the Bay Area, I have never lived in a right-friendly (or even tolerant) community. From what I understand, the Raleigh area has so many transplants from the north it's not that right compared to the standard view of the south.

I have studied many, many climate comparisons and certainly the Pacific Northwest got my attention. Then I read the New Yorker article on a Cascadia earthquake (at least 50 years past due). That looks SO much worse than a big California quake, it makes no sense to take the risk. Could be a total wipe-out of home equity, which is a real threat to retirement. It's one thing to be fatalistic about one's life, but another to see a giant chunk of lifetime savings wiped out in a few minutes without really knowing the odds.

I've looked at the front range too, but water scarcity there as well as physical limitations are a turn-off.

Raleigh has a crummy summer, but otherwise has a lot going for it.

I actually didn't notice the summer being worse than Maryland or Illinois (my home state). Once it is hot and humid, the difference between 88 and 92 is negligible IMO.

I have never paid much attention to living in a liberal vs conservative area. On a day to day basis, people are pretty much the same. Play with their kids, enjoy their family, go to work, enjoy the parks and outdoors...we are mostly talking about the margins with most people, and for those out there (left or right), I don't associate with them.

I also like the proximity to ocean, to mountains...that is nice.

My last requirement: live near an airport from which Southwest flies out of.

[OtayBW]

Originally Posted by Climb01742

Does the cultural conservatism of the South give anyone pause? Even North Carolina politics have taken a rightward swing. I absolutely cop to my left-leaning beliefs. And absolutely understand how a more conservative culture could be attractive too.

How much does this factor for folks? Just curious. I can see both sides.

I think a lot of it has to do with how urban or rural you choose for your living situation. I lived in the rural South for 20 years (TN and VA) and now, as much as I love the area and yes the rural culture (read e.g., Appalachian traditional music and other cultural heritage), I couldn't see moving back - at least to such a conservative rural situation. Given that the cultural conservatism is buffered somewhat by city life, there are some towns that I personally would find more livable than others. Asheville vs the RTP and environs comes to mind, for example.

Sounds like you've got plenty of time to travel and spend some time in various places to see how they set for you.

[Ralph]

Why buy anything? Just put your stuff in some local storage, and rent something simple and cheap.....until you find area you want.

Yes.....I know rent is very expensive....and I understand all the arguments for and against. But buying a house after the housing market has been going up 5-6 years....and in some places almost back to 2006 highs, then putting money down on something with about a 3% per year cost for taxes, insurance, and maintenance (and I don't mean yard work), IE money pit, and all the opportunity costs from doing that.....can really add up to more than rent. Especially until you are really sure where you want to live.

I've got a nice paid for house and figuring opportunity cost on money, plus taxes, insurance, and maintence....I figure it costs me about $35,000-$40,000 per year to live in my $350,000-$400,000 money pit. And my house is pretty ordinary for around here. Temporarily paying a couple thousand dollars or so monthly rent for maybe 6 months seems cheap to me compared to rushing out and buying something.

So my advice.....go slowly figuring all this out. I've got a good friend who lives locally.....and he can buy anything he wants.....and he is moving to Arizona......and he's going to live in his Airstream there for a while until he figures it out. Doubt if my wife would agree to doing that....but I think he's got the right idea.

[zap]

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Originally Posted by Ralph

Why buy anything? Just put your stuff in some local storage, and rent something simple and cheap.....until you find area you want.

Yes.....I know rent is very expensive....and I understand all the arguments for and against. But buying a house after the housing market has been going up 5-6 years....and in some places almost back to 2006 highs, then putting money down on something with about a 3% per year cost for taxes, insurance, and maintenance (and I don't mean yard work), IE money pit, and all the opportunity costs from doing that.....can really add up to more than rent. Especially until you are really sure where you want to live.

Valid concerns.

I told my wife, lets sell the house, rent, move from one city to the next....maybe southern France (I found a lovely hill top house near St Tropez).....that didn't go over well.

It's an interesting process but I find that it's not nearly as hard as moving to another country. Anyhow, I see opportunity in certain housing markets.

[fuzzalow]

Originally Posted by Ralph

I've got a nice paid for house and figuring opportunity cost on money, plus taxes, insurance, and maintence....I figure it costs me about $35,000-$40,000 per year to live in my $350,000-$400,000 money pit. And my house is pretty ordinary for around here. Temporarily paying a couple thousand dollars or so monthly rent for maybe 6 months seems cheap to me compared to rushing out and buying something.

I would not have guessed it cost near $40K in expenses to live in FL. Yikes! Of course, there is an imputed number in your line item called "opportunity cost" and that can allow you to build into any number you want. Just kidding.

I was until recently a homeowner in Nassau County NY where the biggest expenses were RE and the School District taxes, electric & gas utilities, the gardener, homeowners insurance and a miscellaneous small monthly number for household maintenance expense. Ballpark to around $38K a year plus the $800/month for two LIRR commuter tickets for getting to work in Manhattan which I'll count as a home expense because it is impossible to drive to work in Manhattan. Forget about car expenses and that's still close to $48K to live in the suburbs of NYC 25 miles from the Empire State Building. I don't expect that to be cheap but I never would think FL, except Miami, would be that expensive.

I bring this up only because FL is seen as a retirement locale by many, including me, but to have that kind of expense, as you do, makes that seem to be not as easy as one might believe to live in FL. For that kinda money, I'd just rather stay in NY.

For laughs, I'd only consider the SF Bay Area as a place I'd want to live other than NYC. Both crazy expensive. I gotta be nuts.

[1centaur]

A lot of people rent in Raleigh before buying, which makes sense especially for job relocators who have to move quickly. But with 10 years to go I hope to have time to scope out the angles pretty well, and renting can be a pain with pets. I also think the key differentiator is choice. If you are going to buy a generic house for the area, renting another generic house is not a big problem. But if there are features you really want, your options are fewer if you rent.

I agree about buying into a hot market, which Raleigh is these days. It does not feel good to see prices higher than in 2007 considering how the market plunged. One of the possibilities in my mind is to know exactly what I want and then have the time to wait for a housing market decline and buy opportunistically. I can carry two houses for a while if I need to, and rent it out if it's too long to retirement. But no pets

[Ralph]

I'm retired....with no debt.....and no need for a home to raise a family in...be near certain schools, close to work, etc.....so I tend to look at things mostly as "what is best use for my assets" kind of way. And money tied up in a home does have a cost (I figure 7-8% long tern average).

I've been about everywhere in USA, in most of the seasons.....and while there are lots of places I like better than Florida for parts of year, have found no place I like better than Florida for all the year. However.....Florida is like other states in that there is no such thing as just Florida. it's several types of climates, it's tourist areas, it flat on the coasts, it's hilly in central and N Florida, it's different in every part. Cycling crazy in some parts, retirees sitting on their butts in others. Just like every other state. Consider NC. Mountainous in the W, hilly in piedmont, flat on coast, etc. Climate changes greatly from W mountains to the coast in NC.

I find that most people way underestimate the actual cost of home ownership. While Florida real estate taxes are moderate, our real estate homeowners insurance is not....that includes sink hole insurance....my biggest risk factor. That's why I say my taxes, insurance, and maintenance (fixing stuff.....roofs, AC/heat, pool, pool equipment, interior replacement and upgrades, cracked driveways, etc) runs about 3% of home value per year. And the 100 year return on non leveraged homes is not much more than that. And from the 20007-2008 crash.....every one now knows it's really possible to lose money on a home.

So....that's why I say be careful, take your time to find a bargain....or exactly what you want.....and don't automatically assume you need to be a home owner immediately when you move. And I am still a fan of owning your home.

[rugbysecondrow]

Originally Posted by 1centaur

A lot of people rent in Raleigh before buying, which makes sense especially for job relocators who have to move quickly. But with 10 years to go I hope to have time to scope out the angles pretty well, and renting can be a pain with pets. I also think the key differentiator is choice. If you are going to buy a generic house for the area, renting another generic house is not a big problem. But if there are features you really want, your options are fewer if you rent.

I agree about buying into a hot market, which Raleigh is these days. It does not feel good to see prices higher than in 2007 considering how the market plunged. One of the possibilities in my mind is to know exactly what I want and then have the time to wait for a housing market decline and buy opportunistically. I can carry two houses for a while if I need to, and rent it out if it's too long to retirement. But no pets

In Cary, the rental market is pretty strong for single family, so you might not get a quite the deal you would elsewhere.

You are looking to move in ten years, so you have a ways to go. If I were that far out, I might invest in land where development is heading. Either choose to build there when you retire or sell to buy what you want.

The area looks quite different then it did ten years ago, and I suspect it will look even more changed ten years from now.

[zap]

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Originally Posted by rugbysecondrow

The area looks quite different then it did ten years ago, and I suspect it will look even more changed ten years from now.

I agree.

Cary appears to be moving ever westward. If Chatham Park takes off, then add Pittsboro and the corridor up to Chapel Hill. May not be called Triangle for long.

[rnhood]

Originally Posted by 1centaur

I, of course, want it all. Defined as reasonable access to good medical (Duke may not be ranked like Mass General but that's mostly due to fewer specialities, most of which few care about), good grocery stores, and some sense of modern civilization while at the same time being able to slip into the country for quiet rides. Looking at the roads in that Strava URL, it's hard to figure the best transition points from one to the other because the reddest routes are the most urban by definition. Where I live now, tons of fairly rural routes are red. And the Raleigh area is growing so fast that the suburban buffer zones are getting overrun by new developments and busier roads, so what I would buy now may be wrong for what I buy when I retire.

I like the housing stock in North Raleigh and the big lots protected by Falls Lake on the north from encroachment, but the only way out to the country looks like Six Forks and that will lead to increasing development north of the lake. I am surprised the Strava density is not better going northwest from Wake Forest. I am thinking Bahama to Rougemont might not be bad 10 years from now for occasional access to the metro area but with a Whole Foods closer than Durham, by then. And north of Hillsborough is close to Durham but not close to RTP so might miss some of the people who prioritize commuting.

Cary and Apex are perfect commuter locations but you pay for that and lot sizes tend to be smaller than I am targeting. And of course as a cyclist I would like a basement for all my bikes but basements are fairly rare (due to clay and the frost line among other things). The biggest surprise in my research has been the ubiquity of HOAs, which has the potential to be a big negative.

The research is definitely part of the fun.

Our cycling rides often traverse Bahama/Rougemont/Lake Michie and the surrounding areas. Excellent riding as its well out into rural areas, with primarily farmland dominating the scenery. And its pretty.

I have never made a good call with respect to real estate however, having said that I do don't think the Triangle urban sprawl will make it to the B & R areas...at least not in my lifetime. But I could be wrong. There just isn't much there but tobacco fields, most of which have been converted to cotton or other agriculture products, or sitting dormant. I like Oxford a lot better, as its a quaint little historic town, and a real town unlike B and R. Its also a very good cycling area.

On the other hand, those Falls Lake lots could become very valuable down the road.. and some are close to high end neighborhoods (for lack of a better descriptive term). Six Forks sees lots of cyclists and its just about the only way to head out to the Northern rural areas. Its a pain with regards to traffic immediately north of 540, until one crosses hwy 98, where the name changes to New Light, and later to Bruce Gonner, then the riding is extremely nice with traffic not a problem. That still doesn't mean there are good shoulders there, because there are not. But its safe riding. There are some new developments out there, and probably more to come. Someday the county or state will probably widen Six Forks. I can't see land values going anywhere but up out that way - especially on larger lots. Its out enough for some seclusion, yet close enough. And very nice. But Bahama and Rougement......hmmm, I just don't think so (but I could be wrong).

You need to come down and visit for a few days, which I'm sure you will in due time.

I was planning to move to Florida (Ormond Be) when I retired two years ago, and even have a place there, but have not been able to pull up the roots yet. I really like the type community we have here, for the reasons already mentioned by myself and others. And again, the general Cary area and immediately outside it are extremely good areas too, for living and cycling. Many people like the SW sector, Garner and even further out (including Clayton). Cycling is also nice in those parts, but for some reason I just don't see these areas making waves like NW Raleigh and Cary.

[45K10]

If you are looking to retire in NC I would suggest Winston-Salem. It has awesome riding (MTB and Road) and you are a stone's through away from the mountains, close airport, good shopping, cheap housing. We lived for a a year and a half before moving to our current location. I miss it.