Gent-Wevelgem

[FlashUNC]

Terpstra had Gaviria back in the bunch. He had no incentive to work other than to mark things. QS were clearly riding for the bunch sprint at the end, and it all very nearly came back together.

[GregL]

One thing not getting much discussion is how team strength and dynamics greatly affected the race. Bora had all their eggs in the Sagan basket, with no visible team support. QS had the numbers, but made tactical errors. Once Peeters realized the mistake, he was screaming at Terpstra over the radio - too late! BMC got it right. Daniel OSS drove hard on the front of the pack to real in the break, then drilled it to reduce the field. This set up Van Avermaet perfectly. Best team tactics/strength = win.

Greg

[nooneline]

Originally Posted by MattTuck

Go back and look at the 2011 Roubaix. Van Summeren won out of the break, but the dynamic between Cancellara and Hushovd (Vaughters, by proxy) was excruciating to watch as a Cancellara fan.

Yeah, where things are at with Sagan now reminds me of how things were for Cancellara in that era.

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

Terpstra had Gaviria back in the bunch. He had no incentive to work other than to mark things. QS were clearly riding for the bunch sprint at the end, and it all very nearly came back together.

I mean, yeah, I just think that it was either a combination of flawed plan and a flawed execution. Flawed plan because Gav could only manage 5th in the field sprint for 9th overall, 3 spots behind Boonen who was probably working and freelancing. Flawed execution, too, because instead of marking things, Terpstra let GVA and JK ride away. And then he hung out in the second group, chasing back on, because he screwed up. He should have either not let it happen in the first place, successfully chased back on, or fallen back to the group and gone to work for Gav. QS is no stranger to tactical screw-ups.

[MattTuck]

I'm not a huge fan of Quick-Step. But their quantitative superiority cannot be disputed. Granted, UCI points is not nessecarily the best proxy for results as it (IMO) over-weights minor placings and under-weights wins. But it is atleast something to be benchmarked.

Here are the numbers, as of Gent-Wevelgem.

I'd say it is red alert for Lotto-Soudal and Trek. Those two teams need to salvage something in the next two races. Trek, you lost Cancellara (big shoes) but picked up Degenkolb, so we'll see if he can show up for the next two weeks.

Lotto-Soudal is a big surprise. They have the same classics team as last year, in terms of significant placings. (ie. didn't add or lose anyone with a top 10 placing in a spring classic since last season). I'd rank their performance as most surprising.

[FlashUNC]

Originally Posted by nooneline

Yeah, where things are at with Sagan now reminds me of how things were for Cancellara in that era.



I mean, yeah, I just think that it was either a combination of flawed plan and a flawed execution. Flawed plan because Gav could only manage 5th in the field sprint for 9th overall, 3 spots behind Boonen who was probably working and freelancing. Flawed execution, too, because instead of marking things, Terpstra let GVA and JK ride away. And then he hung out in the second group, chasing back on, because he screwed up. He should have either not let it happen in the first place, successfully chased back on, or fallen back to the group and gone to work for Gav. QS is no stranger to tactical screw-ups.

Quick Step totally Quick Step'd it up. Its also been their MO for a couple years now.

But Terpstra wasn't going to follow GvA and JK with 20-ish K to go, delivering Sagan to the line with a free ride. His hope was those two wouldn't be able to work together all the way to the finish, the group would catch within a couple K and then the sprint train would get wound up. His dropping back to the main group would have made no sense, as it would have taken away someone to disrupt the break and help ensure the main group would make the catch.

GvA and JK had other ideas and the legs to make it happen. Sagan's gonna get tired of chasing wheels at some point. Be a different story if he had teammates who could actually hang in the finale.

[Red Tornado]

Originally Posted by MattTuck

Not going to bet against him, but Sagan only has 1 top 10 finish at Roubaix. He's an extremely talented rider, but purely looking at results, I think Flanders is a better race for his talents. I see Flanders as a must win for Sagan.

That may just be bad luck at Roubaix, but he also tries to be fit right from OHN and Roubaix may be a bridge too far. Degenkolb, for contrast, did his first one day race last weekend, at Milano-Sanremo.

Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Could apply to most races but P-R especially. Agree with you that Sagan's better suited for Flanders. It's been discussed many times, the difficulty of maintaining form from late February through early April. I hope Sagan can do it but starting to have my doubts......

[azrider]

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

GvA was knocking on the door for years. Just took one big win to get over a mental hump more than anything, and now the floodgates are open. Dude is legit.

This.

The dudes last two Spring campaigns have been heartbreakingly close.....like you said, I think he's finally putting it together and is dead on favorite this Sunday atmo

2015
1st Stage 3 Tirreno–Adriatico
2nd Strade Bianche
2nd Overall Eneco Tour
3rd Road race, National Road Championships
3rd Tour of Flanders
3rd Paris–Roubaix
3rd Paris–Tours
5th Overall Tour of Qatar
5th Amstel Gold Race

2016
2nd Grand Prix Cycliste de Québec
3rd Overall Tour of Qatar
3rd Road race, National Road Championships
4th Overall Eneco Tour
4th Binche–Chimay–Binche
5th Milan–San Remo
5th Clásica de San Sebastián
6th Strade Bianche
9th Gent–Wevelgem

[efaust_o]

[QUOTE=efaust_o;2148314]Yes, Jens was there(almost won), but make no mistake GVA had some power out there today...

Yes, lots of power....https://www.strava.com/segments/634108.

[r_mutt]

Originally Posted by FlashUNC

Terpstra had Gaviria back in the bunch. He had no incentive to work other than to mark things. QS were clearly riding for the bunch sprint at the end, and it all very nearly came back together.

i would agree with this but after a bit of a discussion of who should work, they both worked together along with token pulls from anderson to try and bridge back up. that's not the sign of someone waiting for it to come back together for gaveria for the sprint. his DS talking to him from the car saying "c'mon niki, c'mom niki as encouragement to get back to the duo ahead confirms it too.

[bobswire]

GVA is 31, Sagan 27, live and learn. Sagan still has his best ahead of him, especially for the cobbles while gaining wily experience this year. GVA at 27 would have loved to be where Sagan is today.

[MattTuck]

Originally Posted by bobswire

GVA is 31, Sagan 27, live and learn. Sagan still has his best ahead of him, especially for the cobbles while gaining wily experience this year. GVA at 27 would have loved to be where Sagan is today.

In case this graphic is of interest.

[bobswire]

Originally Posted by MattTuck

In case this graphic is of interest.

True that, my point in bringing up Sagan age was to point out to those (FlashUNC) disparaging Sagan's results that he still has a lot of racing ahead of him and where GVA was at 27 years of age.