OT: VW cheating emissions on TDI vehicles

[akelman]

Originally Posted by Nooch

So what do they do with all the cars they buy back, if it happens? Pull the engines and do 2.5L 5-cyl swaps? Because isn't scrapping them somehow more damaging to the environment?

They'll ship them to Europe, Africa, and Asia and sell them.

[shovelhd]

Originally Posted by akelman

They'll ship them to Europe, Africa, and Asia and sell them.

Correct.

The vast majority of the 460,000 or so affected US TDI's are the Gen1, 2009-2014 models like mine. Something like 85% or more. VW is saying that it could take up to two years to repair them, but Congressional leaders and the EPA are not happy with that. VW has to present their plan and timeline to the CARB board before November 20th. I suspect that feedback will be quick and loud if it's not acceptable, with the immediate threat of major fines to help speed things up. The EPA has given VW plenty of time to develop the fix to this issue.

[slidey]

2014 Audi/Porsche models are also under fire now,

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-w...olkswagen-cars

[akelman]

Originally Posted by shovelhd

The EPA has given VW plenty of time to develop the fix to this issue.

Right. Particularly given that VW knew about the issue for years, it seems more and more plausible to me that there isn't a suitable fix* for the affected cars in the US market -- which, by the way, is what I believe the VW official I quoted above was saying. This is why buybacks now are on the table.

It's still too soon to know, of course, but if the proposed fix is going to take years, cost hundreds of millions of dollars at the front end (not to mention potentially billions in fines and lawsuits at the back end), VW may just decide, with help from regulators, that it doesn't cost out, either as a business or a marketing decision, to try to fix the problem. And then we're in buyback land. Well see!

* I should be clear that by "suitable fix," I mean not only a fix that won't alienate tens of thousands of customers -- which, as I've already said, seems nearly inevitable at this point, because the cars are going to have compromised mileage numbers and power, reduced resale value, and increased maintenance vulnerabilities -- but one that passes muster with regulators in the US and also is feasible from an engineering standpoint. That might be an impossible needle for VW to thread.

[David Kirk]

I'd hate to sound like I'm siding with VW on this as I don't feel that way....but.....it makes sense that it will take a very long time to fix 400,000 - 500,000 cars. Even if just a reflash think of the logistics of getting 1/2 million cars scheduled and through the service departments of dealers. A quick googling of the number of dealers in the USA shows that VW has 650 dealers in the country......or 615 cars per dealer (not that that is in any way accurate as some are in little areas like mine and will no doubt have many fewer cars to tweak).

Getting over 600 cars through a dealer alone is a massive undertaking and will take a long time. Not to mention getting the dealers trained to perform the reflash and all that. My local dealer is backed up about 2 weeks for most issues as it is and that's just normal load repairs and service.

They'd better get busy.....

dave

[MattTuck]

It will be interesting to see reported emissions across the auto industry in the years to come. I wonder if this precipitates a big kink in the graph, as companies become more conservative with their estimates...

[thwart]

Originally Posted by David Kirk

I'd hate to sound like I'm siding with VW on this as I don't feel that way....but.....it makes sense that it will take a very long time to fix 400,000 - 500,000 cars.

Probably reflects the good will several enjoyable VW's over the years have generated, but I feel the same way.

Patience.

Then again, if I lived in a big city and my 5 year old daughter had severe asthma with multiple hospital admissions... I'd be livid. Or worse.

Which may not be rational given the multiple (and much greater) sources of air pollution, but...

[palincss]

Originally Posted by David Kirk

I'd hate to sound like I'm siding with VW on this as I don't feel that way....but.....it makes sense that it will take a very long time to fix 400,000 - 500,000 cars. Even if just a reflash think of the logistics of getting 1/2 million cars scheduled and through the service departments of dealers. A quick googling of the number of dealers in the USA shows that VW has 650 dealers in the country......or 615 cars per dealer (not that that is in any way accurate as some are in little areas like mine and will no doubt have many fewer cars to tweak).

Getting over 600 cars through a dealer alone is a massive undertaking and will take a long time. Not to mention getting the dealers trained to perform the reflash and all that. My local dealer is backed up about 2 weeks for most issues as it is and that's just normal load repairs and service.

They'd better get busy.....

dave

They already tried a simple reflash, and it didn't seem to be that much of a logistical challenge. It also didn't work.

[palincss]

Originally Posted by thwart

Then again, if I lived in a big city and my 5 year old daughter had severe asthma with multiple hospital admissions... I'd be livid. Or worse.

Which may not be rational given the multiple (and much greater) sources of air pollution, but...

Do you get livid at the sight of every big truck and every old car? You're right, it's not rational.

[PoppaWheelie]

Two dealers told me last month that they were selling TDI trades on auction. From there they were getting bundled and sent to China.

Isn't VW required to release their proposed "fix" in CA on the 20th? Again, that was what I was told by a few dealers.

[PoppaWheelie]

What is the lease cost for a TDI Sportwagon (say, 2014)? I've had mine for 12 months...the value of that year at this point, in my mind, is more or less pegged at the cost of an equivalent lease (I bought, with a VW Credit loan) for that period of time.

Having said that, I have almost no hope of being made whole...

I do wonder if VW offers massive extended warranties whether the resale on these things might remain reasonably ok. I can't imagine that a TDI owner will EVER be financially liable for a failed CA smog test for as long as the car is on the road. Again though, who knows...I read somewhere that many VW employees felt that this whole thing was being blown out of proportion since the cars were still cleaner than most of the SUV's and pick up trucks on the US roads. Not sure the mind-set is really there to "get it"....

[MikeD]

Originally Posted by grawk

except that it's not the government doing the buyback

Just speculation here, but that will probably be part of the negotiated settlement with the government.


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[grawk]

Originally Posted by MikeD

Just speculation here, but that will probably be part of the negotiated settlement with the government.


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I really doubt VW would agree to destroying the cars after having to buy them back, when they could sell them in most of the rest of the world.

[MikeD]

Originally Posted by PoppaWheelie

What is the lease cost for a TDI Sportwagon (say, 2014)? I've had mine for 12 months...the value of that year at this point, in my mind, is more or less pegged at the cost of an equivalent lease (I bought, with a VW Credit loan) for that period of time.



Having said that, I have almost no hope of being made whole...



I do wonder if VW offers massive extended warranties whether the resale on these things might remain reasonably ok. I can't imagine that a TDI owner will EVER be financially liable for a failed CA smog test for as long as the car is on the road. Again though, who knows...I read somewhere that many VW employees felt that this whole thing was being blown out of proportion since the cars were still cleaner than most of the SUV's and pick up trucks on the US roads. Not sure the mind-set is really there to "get it"....

I doubt that since I read that one of these VWs put out as much NOx as a new semi truck, if that report was factual.


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[Cicli]

Originally Posted by MikeD

I doubt that since I read that one of these VWs put out as much NOx as a new semi truck, if that report was factual.


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A new simi truck puts out very little NoX. We play by the rules. SCR is the solution. No reflash will fix a nox issue and not kill the DPF in short order.