Paris-Roubaix: Discussion & Prognostications (There will be spoilers)

[echappist]

Originally Posted by BobO

Ya, but he's been doing ballsy breakaways all spring. It's my guess he's gonna go off the front again, which, after last week will make the favorites react.

Gilbert isn't racing Roubaix; that's what resting up meant

[BobO]

Originally Posted by echappist

Gilbert isn't racing Roubaix; that's what resting up meant

Whoops, looks like I read some bad info on that one.

[weisan]

To borrow the typical response from Sagan when he's asked during interviews "Who do you think are the favorites?"

"Everyone!....everyone is a favorite."

This edition of the Roubaix is wide open.

[BdaGhisallo]

Watch out for Alexander Kristoff. He's my darkhorse, if a past Tour of Flanders winner can ever be a darkhorse.

[45K10]

Originally Posted by BdaGhisallo

Watch out for Alexander Kristoff. He's my darkhorse, if a past Tour of Flanders can ever be a darkhorse.

Yep, I was getting ready to post the same thing

[colker]

I bet on a dark horse.. anyone who is not a favourite and raced for the big guys, uncelebrated. P-R is a good race for this guy.

[weisan]

Originally Posted by colker

I bet on a dark horse.. anyone who is not a favourite and raced for the big guys, uncelebrated. P-R is a good race for this guy.

[nooneline]

I agree with a lot of y'all who are saying that there could be a dark horse winner. I mean, it's Roubaix - that's definitely the case. But this year just seems a bit more wide open than usual. There just seem to be more reasons to write off many of the main contenders than there are reasons for faith. Dego is still on the back foot and not as fast as he was before That Accident; Kristoff has never done too well at Roubaix. Sagan and GVA are the obvious classics favorites this season, but neither has a particularly good track record at Roubaix.

There are only a small handful of previous winners racing (Boonen, Terpstra, Degenkolb, Hayman) but only Boonen has one more than once.

Tons of great riders on the field - so many I wouldn't be surprised to see in the top 5 or top 10 - but I think Sunday's winner is going to surprise me. It just seems really hard to call.

After all - teams plan, pave laughs.

[MattTuck]

In this situation, I think it probably helps to look at team strength. Quick-Step is probably the strongest from top to bottom. Two previous winners and a guy who was 2nd.

However, it is hard to see how all that strength can be used to get Boonen to the finish line first. Would Boonen (who since last January has been saying the only reason he hasn't retired yet is because he wants to win Roubaix again) really let a break go up the road with Terpstra in it? Maybe. I don't know. I think it would be easy (relatively) for someone else on that team to win, given what Tom has said; but I think very hard for Tom himself.

I like the Martin/Kristoff 1-2 from Katusha. Orica Scott also looks pretty compelling with some good rides this year. Agreed that Dego doesn't seem to have it this year. Whether that is form or bad luck, who knows. Trek is doing terribly though, this classics season, so I think they will be the most willing to take big risks. The worst part of it, like you alluded to, is you have the whole team working for Degenkolb but no one is really sure he'd have what it takes even if you get him to the finale in a good position.

[nooneline]

Yeah and if we're looking at team strength... Trek has what it takes to do something resembling QS's "privateer collective" approach with Dego, Stuyven, and Theuns. AG2R is strong with Naesen, Vandenbergh, and Gougeard. And Orica, as you pointed out Matt. I'd say those 3 are the second tier below QS this weekend - from the perspective of breadth. It's different than BMC, which is so strong at getting GVA to 50km to go (or whenever) ready to blow the race wide open on his own.

[bicimechanic]

Service Course in Baltimore will be having it's annual Paris Roubaix viewing on Sunday morning from 8am to about 12. Come on out if you are in the area!

https://www.facebook.com/events/591068541090237/

[regularguy412]

WHOA! Early start!

[Matthew]

In the past NBCSN has showed it live. Not the case this year? Was hoping to tune in Sunday morning.

[MattTuck]

Originally Posted by Matthew

In the past NBCSN has showed it live. Not the case this year? Was hoping to tune in Sunday morning.

Is the commentary team still Phil and Paul? I hope not. I have been watching previous versions of roubaix all week on the trainer. Yesterday, I watched the 2016 edition, which was the NBC sports broadcast. Phill consistently confused Peter Sagan and Fabian Cancellara and repeatedly called Tom Boonen "Tim".

Fortunately, I'll be watching the Eurosport broadcast

[Red Tornado]

Degenkolb
van Avermaet
Boonen
Sagan
Lampaert

Dark horse: Terpstra