OT: Are we on the cusp of an “A.I. bubble?”

[C40_guy]

Originally Posted by ridethecliche

Blowing my mind that this NVDA rally is still going. I expected a bit of a slowdown, but as someone that's considered jumping into tech stonkz a few times as a hobby investor, it just keeps blowing my mind that things explode the second it feels like the bubble is about to pop.

This has been a wild ride.

110's fall of 2022 to over 1000 today.

And after the upcoming 10 for 1 split, I expect it to be at $300 by the end of June.

[verticaldoug]

Originally Posted by C40_guy

And after the upcoming 10 for 1 split, I expect it to be at $300 by the end of June.

at the price, 12m trailing earnings is 141x, mkt cap is 7.8 trillion or so.
Even at the current torrid pace of growth, that's 73x p/e in 2028.

That's the size of apple, msft, and amazon combined.

call me crazy, but I don't think so

[C40_guy]

Originally Posted by verticaldoug

at the price, 12m trailing earnings is 141x, mkt cap is 7.8 trillion or so.
Even at the current torrid pace of growth, that's 73x p/e in 2028.

That's the size of apple, msft, and amazon combined.

call me crazy, but I don't think so

Okay, you're crazy.

Schneider Electric, an electric infrastructure company has a PE ratio of 113 right now.

Speaking as an economist, I don't think you can look at this from a rational (technical) perspective.

NVDA is changing the AI game, with CPUs, software and infrastructure, in an economy where we literally have zero idea what impact GenAI will have in three years. That's very similar to how we talked about the internet in 1994. And there were some big winners over the ensuing ten years...and some major flameouts too.

[Tony T]

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[Erikg]

LOL, that's good!

[verticaldoug]

Originally Posted by C40_guy

Okay, you're crazy.

Schneider Electric, an electric infrastructure company has a PE ratio of 113 right now.

Speaking as an economist, I don't think you can look at this from a rational (technical) perspective.

NVDA is changing the AI game, with CPUs, software and infrastructure, in an economy where we literally have zero idea what impact GenAI will have in three years. That's very similar to how we talked about the internet in 1994. And there were some big winners over the ensuing ten years...and some major flameouts too.

NVDA is benefiting from people's belief bigger models are better and somehow we need one model to rule them all. We probably passed the main gains in ability from scale, and as we get bigger it is just diminishing returns.

The language ability of much smaller models is very good, and for business apps worried about liability and correct answers (no hallucinations) investing in proprietary data with RAG is probably the answer to most questions.

Faster processing to reduce latency is one thing but then you have remaining network latency. There is a reason OpenAI plugged in the phone on a hardwire for the GPT-4o SKY demo.

With 70% profit margins, NVDA has to attract competition. Market is too rich for it not to happen. The issue is whether or not, GOV allow the big guys to buy up any promising small tech which could be a competitor. That has been to MO of the big software tech. NVDA is trying to copy that playbook.