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Good thoughts, Matt. You’re right that MSR is a different beast altogether and difficult to predict - for that reason I think there are some surprise victors among the list of recent winners. Nothing’s a sure thing, but a lot of the signs are there: Gaviria has shown he can get over the Poggio with the lead group, he’s shown that he can go head to head with Sagan in a field sprint, he’s shown that he’s in good form lately. That’s enough to put him on the list for MSR. Will he win it? Or would he have won it last year if he didn’t touch wheels? Maybe. We’ll never know the latter, and we’ll find out the former on Saturday. Of course, it’s road racing - a flat tire at a bad time or somebody else’s inattentive crash could ruin his day and answer the question for us.
I’m also interested in who else is on the list for MSR. Demare is having a good spring but I wouldn’t bet on a repeat MSR victory. Sonny Colbrelli could be up there at the end. GVA and Kwiatko both race the hell out of every race they’re in. Kristoff is always dangerous, Trek is bringing a strong team with Degenkolb, Felline, and Stuyven… man just thinking about it is making me excited!
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