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Gaviria got over the Poggio in the lead group at last year's MSR - he just stupidly crashed himself out in the last kilometer. He seems to be very capable of winning if he makes it to the end with the bunch - sometimes dominantly so (take a look at what he did at Paris-Tours last year). He's extremely capable.
I think yesterday's stage of TA is about as good a preview of MSR as one can get in the pre-season.
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