[weisan]

surfer pal,

thank you for such a thoughtful reflection, I really appreciate it.

You touched on a key word here: Variables.

There are many variables at play, some play a bigger role in certain situation than others, it just depends. And they are in constant flux. Nothing is fixed. And sometimes one variable can counteract or contradict or conflict with another. It's finding the balance. Luck plays a big part too.

Every time we have a discussion like this, we can get into an argument or a loop. Someone would say A that seems to contradict what the other person who says B. When in actual fact, both are correct. Most folks can't handle tension very well. Two seemingly opposing concepts can coexist in tension but we insist on "one" truth.

Seven blind mice and the elephant. One touches the ear and concluded that it's a fan. The other touches the leg and insists that it's a tree trunk. Both came up with their own conclusions based on their personal experience and observations. Both are "correct" and "wrong" at the same time. But they refuse to listen to each other and is adamant in sticking to their story. It's a losing proposition.

Let's talk about endurance/gravel racing for a sec...

I immediately thought of Lael Wilcox, Ted King, Peter Stetina, Colin Strickland etc.

Lael bursts into the scene of long distance endurance cycling events many years ago. To many people, she seems to come from nowhere, with very little background in bike racing and very elementary knowledge about equipment. But she won.

She won because of her "human" abilities, not because of her choice of bike equipment. And one can argue that the year that she won the biggest event of her life, she doesn't have the best selections and preparations in terms of nutrition and bike equipment compared to her competitors. But she won despite of that. Because other "variables" come into play and they made the biggest difference.

In subsequent years, she continued to develop as an athlete and a competitor. Her racing IQ and knowledge, level of equipment improved over time from experience and sponsorship. And her times of completing these events also followed suit and improved dramatically.

Every variables count. But if she hadn't continue to improve or maintain her "human" abilities, none of these would have mattered and she wouldn't continue to perform and excel.

I mentioned top gravel racers like Peter Stetina, Ted King, and Colin Strickland earlier....

It's easy enough to google this yourself. You can go back and search for pictures and details of equipment they have selected to participate in all the different gravel events over the years. You will see a trend and some patterns.

These are world-class gravel racers who are on top of their game but they did not win every time. In fact, every now and then, a dark horse would take the top step. Why? Is it because of the lack of proper equipment? No.
Lack of preparation or racing fitness? Sometimes. Life gets in the way occasionally. Luck plays a big part too.

You can read race reports and interviews of the racers who ultimately won. There are too many variables to list.

Tire widths is but one of many.

To win a race, you got to be able to manage and balance all the different "variables" and do it consistently, year after year after year. It's not easy. Some people can do it better than others. Marianne Vos. Alejandro Valverde. Mathieu van der Poel.